Kenenisa in 26:17 Form Could Run 2:00:36? So Say MIT Guys

They also say that a fair race distance between Usain Bolt and Mo Farah is 492m. I think Bolt wins at that distance.

Some of the aspects of fitness that permitted him to run 26:17 would have prohibited him from running that fast in the marathon. Training, and fitness, is SPECIFIC, particularly so at the highest levels of competition. The best 10k runners, when in peak 10k shape, are not the best marathoners.

Their estimate of a fair distance of 498m is about right though. I've felt that 600 yards, a classic indoor distance (548m) is an exceptional "even ground" for distance runners and sprinters. Anyone who thinks Bolt could hold a candle to Farah (or Bekele) at 600m is a fool.

*492m, whatever, I've been drinking.

Hard to say. Why doont they go off half marathon? More accurate ya kno? Marathon is likw 42k

Don't think so, but interesting. So many people on these board (ventolin) argue that the 2:05 Kenyan marathoners would be in the 26:30s or lower. I think all of this is really specific.

fadsfadsfadsdf wrote:

Some of the aspects of fitness that permitted him to run 26:17 would have prohibited him from running that fast in the marathon. Training, and fitness, is SPECIFIC, particularly so at the highest levels of competition. The best 10k runners, when in peak 10k shape, are not the best marathoners.

RunnerBoy2 wrote:

Hard to say. Why doont they go off half marathon? More accurate ya kno? Marathon is likw 42k

...did anybody even read the article??

I read the article and overread the paper.

So log t= a1×log s + a2× f2(log s)+a3×f3(log s)

Where t is time, s distance and a1,a2,a3 parameters that depend on athlete. They say that f2 and f3 are non linear but don't give data to estimate them (other than the non precise graphs) or did I misread.

If i understand correctly, given an athlete 3 performances over 3 distances, one would be able to predict that athlete's performance for all distances very acurately.

The author is right, however that is assuming the marathon is run on the track in spikes just like his 10000m world record. Kenny would never be able to run 26:17 on the road in flats, so don't expect the marathon and half marathon world records to align with track records.

If the marathon and half marathon were run on the track in spikes, assuming the athletes would be able to finish without loss of muscular elasticity from the higher level of pounding, the marathon world record would immediately be at least a minute faster, and likewise thirty seconds for the half.

I think you are wrong because that prediction was obtained using data where 10k is ran mostly on the track and marathon mostly on the road. So the model in itself accounts already for that difference.

ayanali wrote:They also say that a fair race distance between Usain Bolt and Mo Farah is 492m. I think Bolt wins at that distance.

No, but he'd win at 491m! ;-)

I didn't read the article but according to the Jack Daniels calculator 26:17 is equivalent to 2:00:58. I think he posted on here once that the reason the marathon world record is so far off from the 10k world record was due to race conditions. A 10k is run on a synthetic track perfect for running. Even when running on a flat fast marathon course, the hard asphalt can really beat up your legs over 26.2 miles. The calculator does not account for differing race conditions.

It's completely silly. They trained their line of fit on a database of

1.5 million individual performances by both genders ranging from the amateur to the elite, both young and old

So this is taking a model that fits average joes and try to apply it to the most extreme outlier, namely KB. Anybody see a problem there?

If a 26:17 Bekele could run 2:00:36 doesn't that mean that the 26:22 Gebrselassie should have run 2:01?

Geb ran 26:22 in 1998 and then a marathon in 2:06:35 in 2002.

His marathon PR came in 2008 at 2:03:59 which was a world record at the time.

It's not like Geb didn't try his best to run a fast marathon.

I don't trust that algorithm when you had a very similar human with very similar PRs try to do this and not come close to this projection.

Clearly no one read the article or the paper.

The article was published in MIT's technology review however the authors are Duncan Blythe at Humboldt University of Berlin and Franz Király at University College London; They are not "MIT guys."

I always wondered how people did so poorly on the reading sections of standardized tests.....

Well, it could be interesting to see the mathematics behind, and the expected errors.

Jack Daniel's "one parameter" equation estimates a 2:01:07, from his 10K of 26:17.53 (someone above said 2:00:58?)

Ventolin's "two paramater" calculator would estimate 2:00:07 from the 5K and 10K times.

So a "three parameter" calculation of 2:00:36 seems to be within the ballpark.

You might think it brings not much value to the other equations, but then again, maybe the expected errors are smaller, or the equations are more accurate across a broader population.

They are two completely different events. It is almost like saying Novak Djokovic beat Federer in straight sets, so he could shoot a 74 at the Masters. The marathon is all about fueling. Your flat out track speed does not mean anything in the marathon. Mo Farah crashed and burned in his Marathon debut. Tadese can't break 2:10. Kimetto and Kipsang are purely road racers with almost no track experience. But then you have Kipchoge who was a beast at 5k and never did many 10ks before moving up to the marathon. Thus, any attempt at finding an objective formula to predict a marathon performance is just silly. Each athlete is different. You just cannot tell who will excel at the marathon until they run one. It is a totally different event.

Precious Roy wrote:

They are two completely different events. It is almost like saying Novak Djokovic beat Federer in straight sets, so he could shoot a 74 at the Masters. The marathon is all about fueling. Your flat out track speed does not mean anything in the marathon. Mo Farah crashed and burned in his Marathon debut. Tadese can't break 2:10. Kimetto and Kipsang are purely road racers with almost no track experience. But then you have Kipchoge who was a beast at 5k and never did many 10ks before moving up to the marathon. Thus, any attempt at finding an objective formula to predict a marathon performance is just silly. Each athlete is different. You just cannot tell who will excel at the marathon until they run one. It is a totally different event.

100%.

From the report:

Predictions for elite athletes allow for a more precise estimation of quotas and betting risk. For example, we predict that a fair race between Mo Farah and Usain Bolt is over 492m (374-594m with 95% prob), Chris Lemaitre and Adam Gemili have the calibre to run 43.5 (±1.3) and 43.2 (±1.3) resp. seconds over 400m and Kenenisa Bekele is capable at his best of a 2:00:36 marathon (±3.6 mins).

I'm not great at statistics, so i'm not sure if I'm reading this correctly, but does this mean a range for Bekele of 2:04:12 (perfectly reasonable) to 1:57:00 (completely insane). As I said, I don't have a great facility with statistics, but wouldn't a result like that undermine the model? I'm not sure the point of a model that suggests that Chris Lemaitre and Adam Gemili should be beating LaShawn Merritt and Kirani James.

If MIT guys say so then it has to be true. They know a lot about elite running. At least they believe they do as they look at times. Their views would mean more if they had a heartbeat. Give me the views of an MIT guy who has run a sub 4 mile and I'd start to take notice. Until then who cares. Numbers tell little about the reality of running at the level of Bekele. He may be the GOAT.