Predict My Marathon Time Based On Workouts and History

Training Advice/Discussion General

9 years ago 03/06/2015 10:01am EST

I am a 39 year old male and have completed 25 marathons in the past 7 years. For the first time ever, I am focusing on quality over quantity, and am running only two marathons this year (May and November). I am 5'10, 145 lbs, began running seven years ago.

Recent marathon PR (October 2014) was 3:35, recent 5K time (December 2014) was 19:45, all running last year was based on about 30-35 miles per week.

Built up mileage in December and January, and beginning February 1 of this year, up to consistent 55/wk. Consistently doing a weekly interval workout of 5x1 mile at 5k pace of 6:30 w/3 min rec, and a weekly tempo run of 11 miles with 2x3 at 6:50 w 2 min rec.

Continuing on this path, what time could I run for a marathon in the mid May timeframe? Thanks LRCers.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 10:35am EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

sub 3:30 If you have a consistent long run of 18-20 miles

9 years ago 03/06/2015 12:30pm EST

re: br0ski

I should hope so. I already got to 3:30 on 30/35 mpw. Now I am increasing weekly mileage by over 50% and also adding in speedwork.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 12:48pm EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

well is your PR 3:30 or 3:35? Now I am confused.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 1:33pm EST

re: br0ski

Whoops - yes 3:35, sorry.

That being said, if I am running 20+ more miles per week than before, AND incorporating both intervals and tempo runs for the first time ever, AND doing it over a 20 week training cycle, are you saying that I am only going to knock like ~5 minutes off of my time? Just great.

I feel like I am going to have to move to the hills of Nigeria and run 100+ mpw if I am ever going to get to 3:15.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 1:40pm EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

3:15 is under 3:30 so technically I would be correct if you ran 3:15 which is not out of the question. But yes you will run faster with the extra miles and workouts. How much faster? That is hard to say but 3:15 is not completely out of the question for the fall marathon for sure if not the spring marathon. Just focus on the long run.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 1:44pm EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

I once ran a marathon in 3:10, after training for 4 weeks. I think you can too!!!! In addition my most mileage even including the marathon week was 50ish.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 2:08pm EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

I think br0ski is generally right but why don't you try some shorter races or longer fast finish goal pace runs to see how you're progressing. Swap out a 16-18LSD with a 16 with last 8 at GMP or slightly faster and the last 2-3 at HMP or 10k. If you don't know what your goal pace is or could be, run a 10k or half and plug it into the predictors and train at those paces.

9 years ago 03/06/2015 4:23pm EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

9 years ago 03/06/2015 6:30pm EST

re: Sorry To Be That Guy

Sorry To Be That Guy wrote:
Consistently doing a weekly interval workout of 5x1 mile at 5k pace of 6:30 w/3 min rec, and a weekly tempo run of 11 miles with 2x3 at 6:50 w 2 min rec.
Continuing on this path, what time could I run for a marathon in the mid May timeframe? Thanks LRCers.

Is that 11 mi tempo including 2min recovery of easy running? Or how does that 2 min recovery fit in?

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