Who will be the next HS sub-4 runner? When will it happen?

4:06.67 Tamagno, Austin (2016) (Brea Olinda, CA)

4:10.94 Hunter, Andrew (2016) (Loudoun Valley, VA)

Seem to be the fastest sophomores but I don't think there is much reason to believe they will be any better than this year's HS juniors.

4:02.02 Fisher, Grant (2015) (Grand Blanc, MI)

4:03.23 Maton, Matthew (2015) (Summit, OR)

Will Fisher and/or Maton do it as HS seniors? It looks promising but every year someone looks promising in September.

I will. After I fail the same grade 4 times so I have more time to train.

Eli Krahn

What happened to that kid who just wanted to break 4 so he could buy cars and play with his bow and arrows?

What did he manage?

Jacob Burcham. Ran 4:02 as junior I believe and didn't run as fast his senior year. He's at OK State and ran a 4:03 mile last spring.

Don't get your hopes up. Bernie M. ran 4:01 junior year and sucked senior year

Fisher looks like a very good candidate. Very strong xc runner (national champ) and very strong track racer who extends his seasons to get better comp. He should at the very least knock out a 1500m comparable to sub 4, i.e. a 3:41/42. He's run 3:45 before, I think. He's not a full-time runner yet, however, playing soccer as well, so he may have more room to improve in college.

Matt Pereira of Lake Zurich High School in Illinois ran 4:15 in the Wisco Mile last year as a Freshman and also ran 9:12 in the 3200. He's definitely someone to watch to go Sub 4 probably not this year but in the next 2-3 years.

There are at least a half dozen kids who still have the time to put in enough work to run sub 4 next spring. I suspect none of them will do it.

Young runners, and even most coaches, don't realize how much one has to focus their consciousness singularly (the body will follow soon after) to achieve a sub-4. Put more plainly, it's foolish to think someone who has never run sub-4 can do so for the first time having never averaged 70 minutes a day for more than 10-20 days at a time.

If these 4:05 kids were averaging 110 minute a day for long stretches we would see half of them break down and half of them break 4. I see way too many in this community afraid to take a risk and brush up against maximum volume sooner rather than later.

Popular thought seems to be that these big talents are going to build to a peak when they are in their late twenties. Nonsense, most of these will be done running competitively once college is over.

And that's good. That's healthy. Grasp something with all your might, hold onto it, know it, then let it go and find something else. That's life. These kids need to take a page from Lindgren and run like crazy. Well, maybe not that crazy, but maybe?

Tamagno has the tools. He's next in line if he bothers to temper them. That hasn't happened yet.

The Ghost On HWY2 wrote:

Young runners, and even most coaches, don't realize how much one has to focus their consciousness singularly (the body will follow soon after) to achieve a sub-4.

What is this?! I don't even... Consciousness singularly??? Huh? You mean they'll have to focus and be motivated? Those are real terms.

Andres Arroyo, who, in April 2013, ran 1:47.7 in 800m, then a few weeks later ran 8:53 for 3200m in sunny 90 degree heat with terrible splitting all by himself. In April 2013, Andres Arroyo could have run 3:59.0 for a full mile.

Maxsim wrote:

Andres Arroyo, who, in April 2013, ran 1:47.7 in 800m, then a few weeks later ran 8:53 for 3200m in sunny 90 degree heat with terrible splitting all by himself. In April 2013, Andres Arroyo could have run 3:59.0 for a full mile.

Arroyo was nothing but a time trialer. Didn't you see him at the dream mile? He couldn't hold onto the pace with 500 to go and the race resulted in Ben Saarel running 4:02. Not even close to sub 4. Arroyos weak.

kod3200 wrote:

Maxsim wrote:

Andres Arroyo, who, in April 2013, ran 1:47.7 in 800m, then a few weeks later ran 8:53 for 3200m in sunny 90 degree heat with terrible splitting all by himself. In April 2013, Andres Arroyo could have run 3:59.0 for a full mile.

Arroyo was nothing but a time trialer. Didn't you see him at the dream mile? He couldn't hold onto the pace with 500 to go and the race resulted in Ben Saarel running 4:02. Not even close to sub 4. Arroyos weak.

runners have bad races. I think Arroyo could've ran 4:00.xx

I vote for Hunter. He's very well coached and he's very focused (unlike a Burcham). He hasn't run a lot of miles either, so I think he's got a lot left.

He ran a 15:27 in his first XC meet of the year, breaking the course record on a hot day, losing ~ 10 secs having to cross over a group of runners from the next race, dropping about 30 secs from his time the prior year.

So, he's a 4:10 miler as a soph with huge improvement YTY. And, he has natural speed:

http://youtu.be/Ys01agEee1c

He's running in a huge regional meet today--Oatlands. He's got a real shot at breaking the course record:

http://www.milesplit.com/rankings/all/cc/all/m/5000m?mh=4124

.

He's definitely on track to make a run at 4:00 as a senior.

How about Sukhi Khosla?

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

Fisher looks like a very good candidate. Very strong xc runner (national champ) and very strong track racer who extends his seasons to get better comp. He should at the very least knock out a 1500m comparable to sub 4, i.e. a 3:41/42. He's run 3:45 before, I think. He's not a full-time runner yet, however, playing soccer as well, so he may have more room to improve in college.

Fisher's 1500m PR is 3:49.62 from World Juniors. You're probably confusing him with Haney.

Fisher's 4:02 does convert to 3:44. May not seem like much of a jump to 3:41-42 but Haney and Montoya are two recent examples that you can't assume the improvement.

Only Webb, Ryun and Hall have run 3:42 or better in HS. Odds are against anyone doing it this year or anytime soon.

biz man wrote:

I vote for Hunter. He's very well coached and he's very focused (unlike a Burcham). He hasn't run a lot of miles either, so I think he's got a lot left.

He ran a 15:27 in his first XC meet of the year, breaking the course record on a hot day, losing ~ 10 secs having to cross over a group of runners from the next race, dropping about 30 secs from his time the prior year.

So, he's a 4:10 miler as a soph with huge improvement YTY. And, he has natural speed:

http://youtu.be/Ys01agEee1c

He's running in a huge regional meet today--Oatlands. He's got a real shot at breaking the course record:

http://www.milesplit.com/rankings/all/cc/all/m/5000m?mh=4124

.

He's definitely on track to make a run at 4:00 as a senior.

That'd be crazy to see a runner from my former high school break a four minute mile! I remember Oatlands (actually more from just living close by, but also from the meets there). Was his 15:27 run at the Loudoun Valley home course? When I ran there, it was a very slow course.

Every year people trot out the kids who ran 4:06 and hype them up and every year they fail to break 4:00.

kod3200 wrote:

Maxsim wrote:

Andres Arroyo, who, in April 2013, ran 1:47.7 in 800m, then a few weeks later ran 8:53 for 3200m in sunny 90 degree heat with terrible splitting all by himself. In April 2013, Andres Arroyo could have run 3:59.0 for a full mile.

Arroyo was nothing but a time trialer. Didn't you see him at the dream mile? He couldn't hold onto the pace with 500 to go and the race resulted in Ben Saarel running 4:02. Not even close to sub 4. Arroyos weak.

This is it: on April 3rd, Andres ran 1:47.7 splitting 53, them running a crazy 25.6 third 200m finishing in :29. Be assured that he could have run 1:47.0 at least.

Ten days later, he ran 8:51 NOT 8:53 all by himself going out in 63, 2:07, 3:13, 4:21 in 90 degrees heat. Be assured he could have run 8:40 in good weather with Lukas Verzbikas 2 mile-type competition.

Ask ventolin^3:

When someone can run 1:47/8:40 THEY CAN RUN 3:59 full mile. The problem was this:

Andres was in peak shape in mid-April which he could NOT hold until the dream mile in June.