Could my team be competitive at NXN Heartland?

High School Running Distance

9 years ago 06/04/2014 5:39pm EDT

Hello letsrunners, I am trying to judge how competitive my XC team can be this upcoming fall. Because I feel it would be a bad PR move, I don't want to publicly say what school it is, but if watchout or someone comes on this thread and wants to ask me, just email me at the email address attached to my username. I will say that we are from the Heartland region, though. I did post a similar thread to this one earlier in the season under a different username, however that time I basically just posted what I thought they could do by the end of the season to get a baseline of their potential (I know that could make me a bit of a troll, depending on how you judge it, I apologize!) Anyway, some members of the team still have the state meet to go, and then a number of them are also participating in a local post season meet, so I will post their actual PRs and then what I think they can run in the mile at that post-season meet. Just let me know what you think of the team.

#1 runner: 1:53/4:25 in the 800/1600. 1600 was from two weeks ago, and the 800 was this past week. I could see him running 1:52-1:53 in the state meet and around 4:16 in the 1600 at the postseason meet. Focused on the 8/16 this track season, but could probably run a 9:25-9:30 3200.

#2 runner: 2:01/4:37. 4:37 was from 3 weeks ago. I could see him running 4:30 next week. Also focused on 8/16 but is probably in good enough shape to run around 9:59.

3-5 and beyond:

2:05/4:47 - could run 4:39 next week.

4:43 - true XC runner who struggled a bit in track this year, but I think can do well in XC.

10:22 - Endurance oriented sophomore with a lot of upside.

2:07/4:49 - can probably run 4:42 next week, 1600 was from over a month ago.

16:30 - true XC type runner who was hurt for most of the track season this year. This is his XC PR.

16:43 - Another endurance oriented sophomore with a lot of potential; was also hurt this track season.

I realize that at this point, my team doesn't look good enough to be compared to, say, the Wayzata's of the world, but could we be competitive? And if so, how competitive?

9 years ago 06/04/2014 6:48pm EDT

re: NXN hopeful

I haven't started compiling marks and comparing teams yet (still in the course comparison phase), but...

Your team wouldn't be too far off of where I had teams like St. Thomas Aquinas KS going into last fall. They competed under the name "Blue Streaks" and finished 19th in the Heartland, not too close with the top 10 ... but they were missing a few key guys from what I had going into the season (including their projected #2 and #3), so they probably would have been a bit more competitive with them in the mix (still probably not top 10, but maybe not far off). If you have an even better summer, though... depending on who all shows up, how well you guys train, and how well everyone races... that could be a potential top-15 team in the HL.

9 years ago 07/14/2014 9:59pm EDT

re: watchout

One add-on, we just received word about an incoming freshman who can apparently run 16:30? Does this make the team any better or just add depth?

9 years ago 07/14/2014 10:42pm EDT

re: NXN hopeful

My team qualified for NXN out of the Heartand a few years back, and here's how our team looked:

#1: 1:54/4:15/9:25 PR's, Individual XC state champion

#2: 4:25/9:28, Individual All-State XC

#3: 4:25/9:29, Individual All-State XC

#4: 1:57/4:28/9:44

#5: 1:55/4:34

#6: 2:00/4:32/10:10

#7: 2:01,4:31, 9:59

Not to be an ass, but your team will need to improve significantly if you want a shot to make it to NXN out of the Heartland

9 years ago 07/21/2014 11:45pm EDT

re: 123456789101112131415

Yeah, I would honestly have to agree with you at this point. They would need to improve a lot in order to actually qualify, but I just wanted to see what people's opinions of how good they can be were. I heard we also have a very good freshman coming in, and the team usually does a lot better in cross than track, but I guess time will tell. I think we have one guy that's a solid number 1, a pretty solid number two, and about 8 guys that would be good number 5s. I think what needs to happen for this team to have a shot at NXN is that a couple of those guys need to make a big jump and at least solidify an elite top 4, because depth is not the issue, starpower is.

9 years ago 07/22/2014 12:01am EDT

re: NXN hopeful

You have a nice team. The reason you aren't likely to qualify for NXN is that almost every runner on your team has a time and then an excuse listed. What does "true cross country runner" mean? Ok, maybe better at longer distances. But most of your list has some comment like that. Either you are a gamer or you are not. I hope our sport isn't so specialized that an elite level high school cross country runner does not run well in track because it isn't their specialty. You guys could accomplish something if you wrap your heads around the fact that running is running and racing is racing. It doesn't matter what surface or distance. When gun fires, it is time to throw down.

9 years ago 07/22/2014 12:03am EDT

re: *stipe

Also, not trying to be an ass. Just reread you original post and remove all of the qualifying comments.

9 years ago 07/22/2014 12:10am EDT

re: *stipe

Yeah, I get what you mean. Don't worry you're not being an ass. I agree that their running should be enough to speak for itself and if it doesn't cut it, it just doesn't.

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