True's Last Mile of the 15k - He really did go sub-4!!

wow

Where's the typo? wrote:

[quote] I got him around 3:53 for 1600m.

http://www.runnerspace.com/eprofile.php?event_id=2512&do=videos&video_id=108684

Last mile starts around 22:50.

Seems legit. Also, watch the race video, it is believable with that amount of downhill.

joho wrote:

Do you know if the last mile/1600 is accurately measured? A few folks in the other thread that have run the race didn't' think so.

All I'm basing the accuracy of the course on is one of the guys in the video saying he measured the last 1600 meters himself.

I've tried watching the races from the previous two years. Did the course change? In the 2013 race, they cameraman said they had 1500m to go with the bridge signs clearly visible in the background. Not so with a mile to go in the 2014 video.

joecrunner wrote:

I've tried watching the races from the previous two years. Did the course change? In the 2013 race, they cameraman said they had 1500m to go with the bridge signs clearly visible in the background. Not so with a mile to go in the 2014 video.

“True completed the final mile in less than four minutes to accelerate past a tiring Derrick as the road curved around EverBank Field to the relocated finish line.”

“True completed the final mile in less than four minutes to accelerate past a tiring Derrick as the road curved around EverBank Field to the relocated finish line.”

Yes, you read that right. Obviously that’s a typo. We feel a little guilty about even mentioning it as it’s rare for running to get mainstream press and that article on the race was very good except for the typo.

There's no typo Brojos. The last mile was seriously downhill, but True covered it under 4:00. Time it for yourself. I got him around 3:53 for 1600m.

Last mile starts around 22:50.

OP, thanks for starting this.

DOes anyonoe have an accurate elevation chart for the 15km?

AllI can find is this:

http://www.kickrunners.com/t/65071/gate-river-run-15k

According to that, there is less than a 100 foot elevation net elevation drop in the last mile.

According to John Kellogg, every 10 feet in net elevation drop is worth about 1.8 seconds So 100 feet would be 18 seconds.

I'm still not buying a sub-4. A 43:02 15k is 4:37 mile pace. Even if he's hammering and getting an 18 second advantage, sub 4 seems like a stretch.

If that chart is off and it's 150 feet, then maybe he could do it. That would be 27 seconds.

Does anyone know the full elevation change in the last mile?

have fun wrote:

R Fannin:

.. True was flying .. He didn't break from Derrick til 800 to go ..

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5693552&page=2

Seems legit. Also, watch the race video, it is believable with that amount of downhill.

Didn't break Derrick til 800 to go? So he put 12 seconds on him in 800m?

Talk about dropping the hammer...

rojo wrote:

OP, thanks for starting this.

DOes anyonoe have an accurate elevation chart for the 15km?

AllI can find is this:

http://www.kickrunners.com/t/65071/gate-river-run-15k

According to that, there is less than a 100 foot elevation net elevation drop in the last mile.

According to John Kellogg, every 10 feet in net elevation drop is worth about 1.8 seconds So 100 feet would be 18 seconds.

I'm still not buying a sub-4. A 43:02 15k is 4:37 mile pace. Even if he's hammering and getting an 18 second advantage, sub 4 seems like a stretch.

If that chart is off and it's 150 feet, then maybe he could do it. That would be 27 seconds.

Does anyone know the full elevation change in the last mile?

Not sure how you get 100' from that chart (

) at a mile from the finish. For what it's worth wiki says clearance under the bridge is 141' so that plus structure and deck would put the peak elevation somewhere in the 150s with the finish elevation at around 20' so the drop is something like 130. Judging from the video it looked like they were past the peak elevation and descending prior to hitting the mile marker. It certainly was a heavily aided mile, but 3:55 or so (per the video) seems implausible.

NET ELEVATION IS KEY. How much do you go up? I'm assuming the last mile starts before the beginnign of the bridge. If you go up 50 meters to get up the bridge and then drop 150, you've got a net of just 100.

The key is the net elevation drop.

An elite from the race has written in and said the following about the last 1600:

That makes sense to me. A sub-4 seems basically impossible.

True might have split his watch at the "1600m to go" sign. Personally, I don't think the last 1600m was measured accurately. But you cannot deny that a large portion (maybe 1000-1100m of the last mile was a nice, gradual downhill on the bridge.

I happened to split 4:35 for the last "1600m." This matches my not-so-impressive personal best for the 1600m. Also, doing the math, I ran 17:13 for the third 5K, but averaged 5:39 for the first 2 miles of that 5K (using the mile markers). So, the math would not add up.

My quick thoughts - The course was changed from previous years. The race used to come down the bridge, turn the corner and finish within ~200m from the end of the bridge. This year, they moved the finish so that there was probably closer to 400-500m on the flat after coming off the bridge. So, maybe the race directors put the signs out there simply as a reminder to competitors that they had longer to go after coming off the bridge. And these markers may not have been completely accurate.

rojo wrote:

NET ELEVATION IS KEY. How much do you go up? I'm assuming the last mile starts before the beginnign of the bridge. If you go up 50 meters to get up the bridge and then drop 150, you've got a net of just 100.

I'm suggesting the GPS elevation track linked above is not reliable. One indication is that the peak doesn't follow a smooth curve, which would be a strange way to build a bridge. GPS is not particularly good at measuring elevation changes in real time and I don't believe the peak elevation is where it is shown on that graph.

If you look at the course map (

) the 8.3 mile mark should be a bit after the center of the bridge which is presumably also the high point. This assumption is consistent with the USATF video in which they appear to be on the down slope when they pass the 1600 to go marker as noted by the commentators. The commentators said the first 400 was run in 58 seconds which suggests they were on the downhill for that interval (or the markers were inaccurate). My best guess for net downhill in the last mile would be about 130' which still doesn't seem like enough aiding to make a sub-4 last mile plausible.

Ben True dominated the last mile like a boss. He put 12 seconds on Chris MF Derrick. Who cares what the exact split was?

I'm going to run the last mile in under 4 minutes and I dare anyone to stay with me.

If you know Richard, you know this was to the tenth of a foot. You can haul a$$ that last 1000 specifically.

joecrunner wrote:

I've tried watching the races from the previous two years. Did the course change? In the 2013 race, they cameraman said they had 1500m to go with the bridge signs clearly visible in the background. Not so with a mile to go in the 2014 video.

Yes the course was slightly different because of construction near the normal finish line. Normally after coming off the bridge you make a 90 degree left turn and have about 200m to go. This year you made an almost 180 degree turn and have about 400m to go.

My split from the 1600m to go sign seemed reasonable to me given the amount of downhill (about 20 seconds faster than I averaged for the rest of the race), but I felt like I was dying at the end so maybe it was short. Most other people told me they thought it was short based on their splits. True's "sub-4:00" is probably really like 4:20-4:25 on a flat depending on the accuracy of the 1600m to go sign. Fast, but not ridiculous.

Fannin said he measured the last mile with a tape himself a couple of weeks ago. If you know the guy, you'd know that he'd totally do that. He also mentioned the course change and remeasurements.

rojo wrote:

Does anyone know the full elevation change in the last mile?

The elevation at the crest of the bridge is around 160 feet (finish is at sea level). The 1600m to go sign was after we had started going down, so 150 feet might be plausible. It's definitely more than 100.

Most people I talked too thought the 1600m to go sign was off by about 50m. So his 3:53 was probably 4:01 and then with a 27 second advantage from the elevation change equals a 4:28 on the flat which is consistent with averaging 4:37 for the whole race and finishing hard.