Oregon wins NCAA's Calling it right now?

The title will be a close fight between Colorado and NAU with Oklahoma St 3rd. Oregon has no shot at winning, and will be battling BYU, Portland, Stanford, and Iona for 4th. Oregon has not done well moving up to the10k at the end of the season in recent past.

Not true. Other than last year's 20th place finish, Oregon typically has performed very well at the 10K distance at Nationals. Just look at how they have finished at the National Championships over the past 5 years.

I think that Ok State has the best 1-3 in the nation, but their 4th is struggling and their 5th is distant. If their top 3 are all in the top 10 then they cannot be beat. But if one of them has a bad day, the script goes out the window. I think Colorado has 5 or 6 potential All-Americans and that is scary. But their problem is that they don't have a standup leader type to break the top 10. They could still lose this meet with 5 all-americans, which is a testament to the depth of the competition. The safest bet here for a top 2 finish is for sure NAU. They have a great top 3 and consistent 4 and 5 runners. Futsum is a shoo in for top 10, based on talent and i doubt he has peaked. The biggest question mark is of course the Men of Oregon. They could wind up winning it all or they could be 5th, they're very enigmatic. But i believe the fact that its a huge field will benefit the Ducks. Stinson himself said that thats where they will get their points on teams like Colorado. If Ches can go top 5 and Stinson top 15, they could pull away. Now if Elkaim, Fleet and Pepiot peak well they could be AA's or top 60. But i believe that if Jenkins runs and runs to potential, the Ducks will have 3 top 15 and a chance to win. Stinson is also hard to read. He could blow up or he could go top 10. Nobody knows.

And i totally forgot about Leingang! If Jenkins runs as the 2nd or 3rd man, Fleet will have to step up and snag AA. And the all important 5th man will be the Freshman Jake Leingang. The ducks are resting their season on the shoulders of a freshman and an injured transfer monster.

So the simple fact that Farrell is from The UK means that since he has run very well and improved drastically, that doesn't make Smith a good coach? Have you tracked all those guys' progress while there? Where they all already that fast? For the most part, no. The foreigner argument gives me tired head. Is it within the rules to have foreigners? Erassa, Moskovitz, and Manifilasha are all legally Americans and have lived here for a while now (Moskovitz grew up in Washington). Oh and Nowak is an American, isn't Noelle as well?

People love trying to minimize others' success.

Try building someone up for a change. It can be rewarding.

The WOOD report wrote:

1. Oregon is too deep and will peak at Nationals. Jeremy Elkaim is going to be All-American and Mac fleet will finish in the top ten. Oregon FTW

I'm a big Oregon fan, but this comment above, and any that lists Elkain's 13:39 as support for how Oregon will do at nationals is not dealing with reality. He hasn't done anything in xc that is remotely competitive with his track 5k PR, and you could make a decent case for not even running him in the championship races.

Chess Master wrote:

You don't just jump in one race and end up AA.

Not one race, but Matt Davis was AA (5th overall) with only running regional and nationals in 1996 after being injured. While not likely, it's not impossible that someone could jump in nationals and end up an AA.

NAU

OSU

Colorado

BYU

oregon will choke.

Western Roller wrote:

Not true. Other than last year's 20th place finish, Oregon typically has performed very well at the 10K distance at Nationals. Just look at how they have finished at the National Championships over the past 5 years.

I'm a huge Oregon fan, but I don't really see a national title this year. There are just too many question marks. This Track season, on the other hand, is looking to be a great one.

If you haven't raced at this point than you are probably coming back from an injury/sickness. Sure you can be AA if you are fast enough, but if you were that fit for nationals than why not race at conference or regionals? It has been done, but it's an exception. At this point in the season the best option is normally to redshirt if you haven't, rather than gut out 1 race.

hayward102 wrote:

Chess Master wrote:

You don't just jump in one race and end up AA.

Not one race, but Matt Davis was AA (5th overall) with only running regional and nationals in 1996 after being injured. While not likely, it's not impossible that someone could jump in nationals and end up an AA.

what about fabian Clarkson if he runs OSU has to win?

Matt Davis also happens to be the toughest mother that ever lived.

All American honors is certainly possible for someone like Jenkins, but we're talking a lean at the line to get 40th with a fantastic race.

And I only say that because of just how talented I imagine Jenkins is.

The 13:39 guy is not the wildcard. Leingang is. I really don't think the french guy will be top 80.

Projections kiddos

1 Kennedy Kithuka Texas Tech

2 Kemoy Campbell Arkansas 1

3 Anthony Rotich UTEP

4 Edward Cheserek Oregon 1

5 Shadrack Kipchirchir Oklahoma State 1

6 Fustum Zienasellassie NAU 1

7 Maksim Korolev Harvard 1

8 Andrew Colley NC State

9 Soufiane Bouchiki Eastern Kentucky 1

10 Craig Lutz Texas 1

11 Tom Farrell Oklahoma State 2

12 Eric Jenkins Oregon 2

13 Kirubel Erassa Oklahoma State 3

14 Chris O'Hare Tulsa 1

15 Ryan Dohner Texas 2

16 Luke Caldwell New Mexico 1

17 Parker Stinson Oregon 3

18 Brian Shrader NAU 2

19 Jim Rosa Stanford 1

20 James Leakos Harvard 2

21 Paul Chelimo UNCG

22 Scott Fauble Portland 1

23 Blake Thoreux Colorado 1

24 Sean McGorty Stanford 2

25 Aaron Nelson Washington 1

26 Abbabiya Simbassa Oklahoma 1

27 Malachy Schrobilgen Wisconsin 1

28 Matt McClintock Purdue

29 Daniel Clorley Iona 1

30 Matt McElroy NAU 3

31 Ben Saarel Colorado 2

32 Jason Witt BYU 1

33 Joseph Manilafasha Oklahoma State 4

34 Mason Ferlic Michigan 1

35 William Kincaid Portland 2

36 Stanley Kebenei Arkansas 2

37 Martin Hehir Syracuse 1

38 Pierce Murphy Colorado 3

39 Shane Quinn Providence 1

40 Mac Fleet Oregon 4

41 Solomon Haile Arkansas 3

42 John Mascari Indiana State

43 Lucas Baker Georgia 1

44 Isaiah Bragg Air Force 1

45 Tylor Thatchor BYU 2

46 Caleb Rhynard Michigan State

47 Tom Curr Butler

48 Erik Olson Stanford 3

49 Morgan Pearson Colorado 4

50 Connor Winter Colorado 5

51 Matt Gillespie Iona 2

52 Sam Pons Syracuse 1

53 Mark Scott Tulsa 2

54 Michael Atchoo Stanford 4

55 Martin Grady Notre Dame 1

56 Kieran Clements Iona 3

57 Steve Flint BYU 3

58 Shane Moskowitz Oklahoma State 5

59 Benjamin Connor Providence 2

60 Michael Vanvoorhis Wisconsin 2

61 Nico Composito Columbia 1

62 Nathan Weitz NAU 4

63 Jason Crist Indiana 1

64 Jake Sienko Columbia 2

65 Jake Leingang Oregon 5

66 Adam Bitchell New Mexico 2

67 Mark Parrish Florida 1

68 Ambrose Maritim Eastern Kentucky 2

69 Jeremy Rae Notre Dame 2

70 Daniel Everrett Columbia 3

71 Thomas Awad Penn

72 Andy Trouard NAU 5

Elkaim likely won't even run nationals. He's just not an XC guy.

Absent illness or injuries to key runners between now and NCAAs, I believe that the talent and experience on the OSU team will allow them win yet again. Coach Smith has proven to be a master at peaking his guys at nationals. If Girma had been well enough to run in 2011 they would have won that year too and this would be five straight. Here's the order of finish that I anticipate;

Oklahoma State

Colorado

Northern Arizona

Oregon

Stanford

If Jenkins is reasonably healthy and participates in the Championship race than I would move Oregon up one slot.

1. Oklahoma State

5* Kipchirchir

11* Farrell

13* Erassa

33* Manilafasha

58 Moskowitz

120

2. Oregon

4* Cheserek

12* Jenkins

17* Stinson

40* Fleet

65 Leingang

138

3. NAU

6* Zienasellassie

18* Shrader

30* McElroy

62 Weitz

72 Trouard

188

4. Colorado

23* Thoreaux

31* Saarel

38* Murphy

49 Pearson

50 Winter

191

5. Stanford

19* Rosa

24* McGorty

48 Olson

54 Atchoo

73 Rosa

218

I probably was too critical on Colorado's top guys and NAU's 2 and 3. And i was probably too forgiving of Oregon.

OSU

1. Erassa (east Africa)

2. Manilafasha (east Africa)

3. Kipchirchir (east Africa)

4. Farrel (UK)

5. Moskowitz (USA)

Colorado

1. Thoreaux (USA)

2. Saarell (USA)

3. Murphy (USA)

4. Pearson (USA)

5. Winter (USA)

What is this a dual meet USA vs. East Africa or Junior World champs???

World champs wrote:

OSU

1. Erassa (east Africa)

2. Manilafasha (east Africa)

3. Kipchirchir (east Africa)

4. Farrel (UK)

5. Moskowitz (USA)

Colorado

1. Thoreaux (USA)

2. Saarell (USA)

3. Murphy (USA)

4. Pearson (USA)

5. Winter (USA)

What is this a dual meet USA vs. East Africa or Junior World champs???

Based on this, shouldn't it be more like:

1. Thoreaux (Europe)

2. Saarell (Europe)

3. Murphy (Europe)

4. Pearson (Eurpoe)

5. Winter (Europe)

Cu's top 5 are all foreigners. See I can do it too.

Really good post. Who the heck are you? I agree some interesting stuff! I do like Oklahoma State. You got a lot of way interesting points.