Hank Moody wrote:
I agree with most of what you said, except I firmly believe that their #5 is not near good enough for anyone to make the "all-time great" claim. If XC was scored 1-4 I might retract my statement, but it's not.
I really don't know if Gig Harbor will win NXN. Does anyone really think they are going to dominate CBA or American Fork? To be an all-timer (in my book) one should be head and shoulders above the nation (unless it happens to be a year of multiple all-times).
I don't think anyone is going to dominate anyone at NXN, and I don't think anyone stated that anyone would.
However, I think Gig Harbor's front quartet matches up well with American Fork's top two - and if Gig Harbor has 4 guys with American Fork's #2, that's a scary thought considering American Fork is a serious trophy contender. I also don't think their #5 is that far, if at all, behind American Fork's #5... look at the state meets (which have run about the same in the past)
1. 12 Connor McMillan 15:04.1 American Fork
3. 11 Zachary Jacklin 15:27.8 American Fork
10. 12 Tyler Bell 15:46.6 American Fork
15. 9 Casey Clinger 15:52.7 American Fork
18. 12 Caleb Thompson 16:04.4 American Fork
21. 12 Spencer Herzog 16:07.7 American Fork
48. 11 Daniel Bentley 16:41.6 American Fork
1. 12 Logan Carroll 15:06.37 Gig Harbor
2. 12 Wolfgang Beck 15:09.28 Gig Harbor
3. 11 Tristan Peloquin 15:14.24 Gig Harbor
9. 12 Mahmoud Moussa 15:29.62 Gig Harbor
29. 11 Michael Hammer 15:59.38 Gig Harbor
39. 12 Jordan Oldenburg 16:09.10 Gig Harbor
73. 9 Jack Shields 16:30.76 Gig Harbor
and a common opponents comparison: At Bob Firman, Gig Harbor's #5 beat every other team's #3 except Bingham and Orem (and there were plenty of good teams at Firman). American Fork's #5 beat Orem's #3 by 2.5 seconds at the state meet, and was a second and a half behid Bingham's #3 - very similar to Gig Harbor's #5.
In more comparisons of Gig Harbor's #5 to other NXN caliber teams...
He ran 16:23.3 at Bob Firman.
On the same course at NXN-NW last year, here are the times of #5 runners for the NXN teams: 16:21.6 (NC), 16:33.4 (Kamiakin), 17:10.2 (Summit).
At Bob Firman 2012, these were the #5 runners for the NXN teams: 16:18.74 (NC), 16:52.06 (Arcadia), 16:37.07 (Davis)
At NXN-NW in 2011, these were the #5 runners for the NXN teams: 16:47.2 (NC), 16:44.1 (Gig Harbor)
At Bob Firman 2011, these were the #5 runners for the NXN teams: 17:01.34 (NC), 16:40.93 (Davis), 17:31.47 (The Woodlands), 16:38.74 (Arcadia), 17:01.21 (Rancho Cucamonga)
... and so on.
Bottom line: Very few teams have had as good #5 runners as Gig Harbor. And very few teams have had as good a front four group as Gig Harbor. Their front four is All-Time worthy, and their #5 is the kind of runner you expect for a trophy contending team.
All-Time front 4 + Top-5 in the US for #5 = All-Time team consideration, and one of the clear favorites for the NXN title this year.