Down goes the Dow

He and K5 deserve each other. A pair of fools.

BiII wrote:

He and K5 deserve each other. A pair of fools.

To think that the detector guy is anything at all like K5.

You too failed the eight second test.

Actually I think K5 is worse. But they're both fools. And that was immediately obvious.

BiII wrote:

Actually I think K5 is worse. But they're both fools. And that was immediately obvious.

Geez,

Down to three seconds now.

Q3 2016 S&P 500 Reporting:

Non-GAAP: Of the 17 reported Q3,'16 issues, 9 beat and 8 missed

Igy

Earnings Scorecard: Of the 18 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q3 2016, 15 have reported EPS above the mean estimate and 11 have reported sales above the mean estimate.

Correction:

Q3 2016 S&P 500 Reporting:

GAAP: Of the 17 reported Q3,'16 issues, 9 beat and 8 missed

Igy

The S&P just closed the door on yet another positive quarter — and now it’s the fourth quarter’s turn to deliver. If history is any indication, deliver it should. After all, the last three months of the year have averaged a gain of almost 4% over the past 70 years.

Recently, the outperformance has been even more pronounced. The October-December stretch has set the pace with gains, on average, of almost 7% since 2009, according to Bloomberg. That’s more than twice as strong as any other quarter.

The seasonal winds are clearly blowing north.

This Week:

Sizing Up the Bubble

"Every financial bubble rests on the presumption that there is still some greater fool available to purchase overvalued assets, no matter how overvalued they might become. In the recent half cycle, central banks have intentionally extended this speculation by promising that they, themselves, could be relied upon to be those greater fools. Presently, the median stock in the S&P 500 is more overvalued than at any point in U.S. history, easily exceeding the overvaluation observed at the 2000 and 2007 pre-crash extremes. Following a brief post-Brexit strengthening in a few trend-following components, market internals have deteriorated again. The danger is that investors seem to believe that easy money supports overvalued financial markets regardless of market internals or the attitude of investors toward risk. The failure of investors to grasp this critical subtlety is likely to be the source of a great deal of pain over the completion of this market cycle."

By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

President, Hussman Investment Trust

[quote]Shawn Langlois wrote:

The S&P just closed the door on yet another positive quarter — and now it’s the fourth quarter’s turn to deliver. If history is any indication, deliver it should. After all, the last three months of the year have averaged a gain of almost 4% over the past 70 years.

Recently, the outperformance has been even more pronounced. The October-December stretch has set the pace with gains, on average, of almost 7% since 2009, according to Bloomberg. That’s more than twice as strong as any other quarter.

Since 2009. Nicely cherry picked by Bloomberg.

Did something happen in the last quarter of 2008 that someone would not want included in their calculations?

Let's be realistic here.

VTI (morningstar data)

Date of inception: 5/24/2001

Return since inception: 93.95%

Annualized ROR: 4.38%

Pimco Total Return (PTTRX)

Return since 5/31/2001: 146.92%

Annualized since 5/31/2001: 6.07%

Since 12/31/2014

VTI: 3.99%

Pimco 5.55%

Yes, that's IT.

If you think you're going to retire rich (or even afford to retire) by buy and hold investing in stock mutual funds, you need your head examined. There are a FEW good stocks--there are ALWAYS a few good stocks. It is a stock pickers market and has been for 2/3 or the time for a long time. You can claim to have been in stocks from 2009 to 2014 and bonds the rest of the time, but then you have to admit that buy/hold is less effective than (gasp) market timing.

coach d wrote:

If you think you're going to retire rich (or even afford to retire) by buy and hold investing in stock mutual funds, you need your head examined.

Nonsensical statement.

You don't, for the most part, get rich by gambling in the stock market. You get rich either by having an in demand expertise that you own (i.e., you don't work for anyone but yourself), or by owning a company and profiting off the labor and skills or others. Or, if you are talking about billionaires, by cheating and stealing.

but then you have to admit that buy/hold is less effective than (gasp) market timing.

Something I have always said and done. Why are you saying this to me?

coach d wrote:

Let's be realistic here.

VTI (morningstar data)

Date of inception: 5/24/2001

Return since inception: 93.95%

Annualized ROR: 4.38%

Pimco Total Return (PTTRX)

Return since 5/31/2001: 146.92%

Annualized since 5/31/2001: 6.07%

Since 12/31/2014

VTI: 3.99%

Pimco 5.55%

Yes, that's IT.

If you think you're going to retire rich (or even afford to retire) by buy and hold investing in stock mutual funds, you need your head examined. There are a FEW good stocks--there are ALWAYS a few good stocks. It is a stock pickers market and has been for 2/3 or the time for a long time. You can claim to have been in stocks from 2009 to 2014 and bonds the rest of the time, but then you have to admit that buy/hold is less effective than (gasp) market timing.

coach d,

It is interesting that the return figures on VTI and PTTRX you have quoted is after one of the great stock and bond market runs. What does that say for expected returns of a 60/40 stock/bond buy and hold investment strategy over the next ten years?

Igy

becuz wrote:

Since 2009. Nicely cherry picked by Bloomberg.

Did something happen in the last quarter of 2008 that someone would not want included in their calculations?

What is it about the word "recently" that you don't understand?

Haime wrote:

becuz wrote:

Since 2009. Nicely cherry picked by Bloomberg.

Did something happen in the last quarter of 2008 that someone would not want included in their calculations?

What is it about the word "recently" that you don't understand?

"The great victory of the Federal Reserve in the half-cycle since 2009 was not ending the global financial crisis; the crisis actually ended in March 2009 with the stroke of a pen that changed accounting rule FAS157 and eliminated mark-to-market accounting for banks (instantly removing the specter of widespread insolvencies by allowing “significant judgment” in valuing distressed assets). The victory was not economic recovery; the trajectory of the economy since 2009 has been no different than the trajectory that could have been projected using wholly non-monetary variables. No, the great Pyrrhic victory of the Fed has been to enable the third most extreme financial bubble in history, on the basis of capitalization-weighted indices, and the single most extreme bubble in history from the standpoint of individual stocks."

John Hussman, Weekly Commentary 10/3/2016

If a person can be too smart for his own good, as the aphorism goes, portfolio manager John Hussman may be feeling the agony of high intelligence right about now.

His shareholder newsletter from December 2014 describes the hard lessons he has learned related to his persistent bear market calls that have yet to materialize.

“In the ruin of all collapsed booms is to be found the work of men who bought property at prices they knew perfectly well were fictitious, but who were willing to pay such prices simply because they knew that some still greater fool could be depended on to take the property off their hands and leave them with a profit.”

Chicago Tribune, April 1890

There's no such thing as prices that are fictitious. Try to keep up.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

It is interesting that the return figures on VTI and PTTRX you have quoted is after one of the great stock and bond market runs. What does that say for expected returns of a 60/40 stock/bond buy and hold investment strategy over the next ten years?

Igy

Of course, it says nothing. No one knows what the next 10 years will bring. If someone tries to tell you that they know, run away as fast as you can.