Please enlighten us with one of your post over the past (almost) 3 years that has correlated with what the stock market has done over that same period.
Please enlighten us with one of your post over the past (almost) 3 years that has correlated with what the stock market has done over that same period.
Maserati wrote:
agip wrote:
I'm getting to the bottom of my list. Maybe I'll look back at 2015 to see if anything is interesting.
Anyway, here's our Maser, from 12/17/15 suggesting health care for 2016. That prediction did not work out at all - healthcare was the very worst sector in 2016, down 9% according to M'star.
agip you are incorrigible.
I did not suggest healthcare "for 2016". I suggested to buy it probably some time in 2016 "when the price was right", but not to sell it. Ditto everything else I mentioned.
Also, buying "when the price is right" means BTFD. However, I do not advocate buying the entire market during a dip, but only buying particular things, as I outlined.
If you want to talk short-to-medium-term, buy any business that will benefit from repatriation, they will surely use a bunch of it for buybacks; but don't buy until 2017, because there will be some tax-based selling going on.
Also if you are looking short-to-medium-term, and I can't believe I'm saying this, buy financials. Gov't interference in the private markets will only continue to increase, and that interference is increasingly made via banks. Even though they suck, they will do well.
Also I still like NFLX and AMZN. The conspirator in me says also buy any IT sector that can help out the gov't...there is always a quid pro quo, and Trump knows that better than anyone. The gov't will have to give to get, and shareholders will be the beneficiaries of that giving.
Also, when talking about the near term when I said "meantime, continue to short the CAD", I was also very, very right. Went from .7284 down to .6867 and didn't recover its initial level until Feb 23. I did well on that although I did not hold a huge position.
Interest rates? I don't think we will see them rise as much as people think. The debt situation is terrible, and taxation dollar figures can't rise too much. Also any fed infrastructure spending will infect state and municipal infrastructure spending, which will be debt-financed.
I still believe that "this time it's different", for all the reasons that I have already given. Many who proclaim that certain market events are "inevitable" are blatantly ignoring the structural and social changes that have taken place in the markets, including the proliferation of algos and HFT, and the increasing share of foreign ownership of the markets. It is not only the MANNER in which trading is accomplished that is changing, it is also the SENSIBILITIES of those trading that is changing.
And significantly, too. Think of the housing market as an analogy. Certain areas of the world attract big money, places like Monaco, Vancouver, SF, London, etc., and by any objective measure, RE there is ridiculously overpriced.
Or is it? Those places exist within an internationally contextual RE market, and they stand out to international RE market participants as particularly notable. I argue that US equities also exist within an internationally contextual equity market, and that they also stand out to international equity market participants as particularly notable.
Just as with RE, perceptions of certain conditions, relative to the conditions elsewhere in the international market, are what make them stand out. With RE it is things like demographics, climate, how many questions the country asks about capital inflow, taxation levels, political stability, etc. With equity markets it is things like political stability, economic conditions, reserve currency control, denomination, trade policy, monetary policy, tax policy, etc.
Current international perceptions are that the US equity market stands out from the crowd--and when something stands out, it is also singled out for special consideration in terms of price. No longer is it priced in accordance with normative standards encompassing all markets; it instead becomes a thing unto itself, much like those niche RE markets.
As I have said before, internationally it is the only game in town, as far as equities are concerned. Sure there is still speculation in other markets, but this is where the action is. Everybody with a few bucks and half a brain knows what the game is, and how the US system is managed, and everybody who can buy in, is buying in. I think that foreign ownership is up to something like 25% or more, and rising every day. Although the aggregate of the american everyman is still a large segment, they are content to ride the wave created by others. Look at volumes, and look at who is selling--nobody. In fact selling is such a notable event that the stupid pension funds are announcing their intentions, because they have no worries that anybody will short based on that news...because everybody is buying, and dominating any selling that they might do.
So don't be surprised to see US equities reach for the stratosphere. It's not a "normal" market, and it is increasingly less and less related to the international system of markets. Don't look to "international alternatives" for pricing information, because there AREN'T any actual "alternatives".
For certain reasons, the US market is "it", and when enough people with enough money pile into a certain place, it becomes a haven of the wealthy. This is what the US equity market is fast becoming; and such a haven does not easily fall apart, because more and more of its participants are increasingly like-minded.
The problem with the US markets is that it is easy enough to get out, quickly. Of course there are mechanisms to dislocate the process of too many participants doing this at one time. Combined with central bank interventions and other buying, the LULD system is geared upwards; and specific exchange circuit breakers are also biased toward the positive.
So like agip I also don't foresee a loss in 2017, especially if you wait a bit to buy after the start of the new year.
lol at myself.
Continuing my year end review of predicitons - here's Maserati at the end of 2016. Accurate stuff here.
He likes banks, NFLX, AMZN, and suggests that the year could be a very good one for stocks. And he was right on all that.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This one should be filed under the category of "Wild Eyed Optimism." A few minutes ago on CNBC, James Castellini of Castlemark Investments gave his reason for a market up 15% in 2017. He is expecting $140 in S&P 500 earnings for 2017. Someone forgot to tell him that the LTM EPS for 3Q 2016 is $101.46. So he is expecting on 38% increase in earnings by year end 2017.
This is the type of ridiculous statements that no one questions.
Igy
here's Igy on 12/30/16 mocking an analyst for two things:
predicting a +15% gain
predicting $140 in sp500 earnings.
Igy was wrong on the first - SP500 is up far more than 15% this year
but he was right on the second - as far as I can tell, SP500 earnings will be in the $131 range. But I'm not putting in a lot of time figuring out if I am right on the SP500 earnings. I could be wrong there.
Shows you - stock investing is not a math game. Animal spirits trump math.
Here's a gs analyst saying europe stocks should do better than the US. He was right, in dollar terms anyway. Not sure about local currency result.s
Europe up around 25%, US up around 20%.
Score another for Wall Street analysts.
http://finance.yahoo.com/m/cf80a250-f048-3500-85d3-4cb1f52fa9af/goldman-sachs-sees-europe.html
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This one should be filed under the category of "Wild Eyed Optimism." A few minutes ago on CNBC, James Castellini of Castlemark Investments gave his reason for a market up 15% in 2017. He is expecting $140 in S&P 500 earnings for 2017. Someone forgot to tell him that the LTM EPS for 3Q 2016 is $101.46. So he is expecting on 38% increase in earnings by year end 2017.
This is the type of ridiculous statements that no one questions.
Igy
here's Igy on 12/30/16 mocking an analyst for two things:
predicting a +15% gain
predicting $140 in sp500 earnings.
Igy was wrong on the first - SP500 is up far more than 15% this year
but he was right on the second - as far as I can tell, SP500 earnings will be in the $131 range. But I'm not putting in a lot of time figuring out if I am right on the SP500 earnings. I could be wrong there.
Shows you - stock investing is not a math game. Animal spirits trump math.
Ah, yes, the DGTD contrarian indicator. I’m becoming more and more convinced that he is a troll. No one could be wrong that often. Could they?
Given the newest market high, I’ll be needing to update our contest numbers. I’ll try to get to that soon.
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
This one should be filed under the category of "Wild Eyed Optimism." A few minutes ago on CNBC, James Castellini of Castlemark Investments gave his reason for a market up 15% in 2017. He is expecting $140 in S&P 500 earnings for 2017. Someone forgot to tell him that the LTM EPS for 3Q 2016 is $101.46. So he is expecting on 38% increase in earnings by year end 2017.
This is the type of ridiculous statements that no one questions.
Igy
here's Igy on 12/30/16 mocking an analyst for two things:
predicting a +15% gain
predicting $140 in sp500 earnings.
Igy was wrong on the first - SP500 is up far more than 15% this year
but he was right on the second - as far as I can tell, SP500 earnings will be in the $131 range. But I'm not putting in a lot of time figuring out if I am right on the SP500 earnings. I could be wrong there.
Shows you - stock investing is not a math game. Animal spirits trump math.
agip,
Let me respond this way. The original post you said was "mocking" two things; that is wrong. It was one thing, Castellini's expectation that the market would be up 15% on the basis of 2017 S&P 500 EPS of $140 a share. I did not criticize his projection for the S&P 500 being up 15%, which is all to common on Wall Street, double digit up each and every year. So we should be clear on that point first.
Rather, I pointed out in that post that the 2016 S&P 500 Q3 Last Twelve Months (LTM) non-GAAP EPS was $101.46. I gave Castellini a pass for using non-GAAP, which Wall Street uses to inflated earnings, when the GAAP EPS was $89.09 for the same period. So let's see who appears to be very wrong so far. The 2017 S&P 500 Q3 Last Twelve Months (LTM) non-GAAP EPS looks to be close to $118.73 with 97.7% of companies reporting. GAAP EPS is $107.18 for the same period, or about 2% better than the previous record of $105.96 recorded 9/30/2014. Current full year 2017 S&P 500 EPS Wall Street consensus is an optimistic $125.10, more likely to finish closer to $121.00, a far cry from your belief of $131 or Castellini's projection of $140. And "no one questions" projections like Castellini's, even you. Financial advisors question little, just riding the market up or down. It is convenient, or at least appears to be.
I find my criticism of his $140 more the justified and validated in the above data.
"Shows you - stock investing is not a math game. Animal spirits trump math," surely that is not what you intended to say. Return on Investment (ROI )is a mathematical calculation that is used in evaluating all investments. Modern Portfolio theory, on which you rely for your investment models, are all social science calculations using mathematics. Billions are spent by investment firms, pension plans using various mathematical models to evaluate stocks. So, I am assuming you meant, in the short run, valuation models are poor predictors of short term market performance. And on that point I agree. However, valuation models that are strongly correlated with 10-12 year market performance, with better than 90% validity, on average show the market 2.8 times above historic norms. Translated to numbers more relevant to the discussion, that would mean it would take a -64% drop, or to about 950 S&P 500 points just to reach historic norms.
It seems interesting to me that investors as well as advisers take in the prognostications of Wall Street without examining the numbers. Both groups are delusional. Why? Easy answer, Wall Street firms sell more financial products and generate more profits when investors are Bullish. Yet Wall Street was very wrong in 2000 and very wrong in 2007. We'll see who is more right when the market comes full circle.
Igy
Why can't you just admit you were wrong?
Character flaw alert wrote:
Why can't you just admit you were wrong?
I guess you failed reading comprehension on the SAT.
I guess you failed the Humbleness section of Life.
Character flaw alert wrote:
I guess you failed the Humbleness section of Life.
You say that constantly but you have no problem twisting facts and telling lies.
For you it is far worse, you failed the Integrity section of life.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Character flaw alert wrote:
I guess you failed the Humbleness section of Life.
You say that constantly but you have no problem twisting facts and telling lies.
For you it is far worse, you failed the Integrity section of life.
Usually you don’t see the irony in these statements of yours, so let me explain the irony here. First you told a lie, then you accused me of lying. Get it? Probably not.
As for your comment regarding my integrity, you would do well to remember the saying about people who live in glass houses.
Character flaw detector wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You say that constantly but you have no problem twisting facts and telling lies.
For you it is far worse, you failed the Integrity section of life.
Usually you don’t see the irony in these statements of yours, so let me explain the irony here. First you told a lie, then you accused me of lying. Get it? Probably not.
As for your comment regarding my integrity, you would do well to remember the saying about people who live in glass houses.
You have a habit of threatening me. Why is that? Let’s have it, while you continue to lie under your rock. A nasty Little Rock spider.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
It seems interesting to me that investors as well as advisers take in the prognostications of Wall Street without examining the numbers.
True for some, but not most. For many, it’s all about the numbers.
OK, numbers: EPS up 2% in three years, market up 30%. Explain the discrepancy.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Character flaw detector wrote:
Usually you don’t see the irony in these statements of yours, so let me explain the irony here. First you told a lie, then you accused me of lying. Get it? Probably not.
As for your comment regarding my integrity, you would do well to remember the saying about people who live in glass houses.
You have a habit of threatening me. Why is that? Let’s have it, while you continue to lie under your rock. A nasty Little Rock spider.
Another lie...there was no threat. Just insults from you because you were exposed for what you are.
Sure. Please tell us the great secret exposing who Igy is. And the meantime why don’t you come out from under your rock you scumbag. Tell us why you are the Igy harasser.
Character flaw detector wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
You have a habit of threatening me. Why is that? Let’s have it, while you continue to lie under your rock. A nasty Little Rock spider.
Another lie...there was no threat. Just insults from you because you were exposed for what you are.
You might want to consider your liability for your continued threats.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/CyberstalkingI am the Igy harasser because I don’t like conceited posters who try to dominate the discussion by, in part, undermining what others have to say, and offering knowingly false and misleading information. And your grammatical skills suck.
You might want to. Insider the truth. What threats?
You threaten me and you do it often. You should do yourself a favor and back off. As you know my daughter is an attorney in Boise, and a good one.
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
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