Sad time for investors

That's too much timing the market for me, and I don't believe anyone does that well...I certainly can't. Best for me (and the vast majority of people) to be in the whole time and maybe make some extra purchases if you have money you don't need at the time if the market seems to dip.

Can't wait for this guy to get foreclosed on.

Flagtroll wrote:

Can't wait for this guy to get foreclosed on.

Happened once. Will it happen again?

I'd like to get better returns than that. I heard you talk about 18% returns. That's more of what I would like.

I had hoped to avoid this thread, which seems to have become a bragging contest about who has made the most money, but coach D's infatuation with me has pulled me in, and, as usual, he quotes out of context. My point was that if you were a true technician and believed in your systems, you ACT on them when they give a signal, no ifs, ands, or buts. I didn't say that was good time to sell per se, just that you ignored your own system, proving my point that technical analysis is a dicey proposition and a 50/50 scenario at best. It works until it stops working.

Now, do I believe the market to be totally efficient? No, because the "game" has changed with the Fed caught in a liquidity trap and interfering in the market. In fact, I thought your scenario about us going to 15,000 and then back down to 6,000 wasn't completely out of the realm of possibility as I readily acknowledged that the Fed can take us much higher. But, when people have nowhere else to go, they might also continue to go to stocks. Personally, I prefer Asian and latin markets rather than the US.

So, you made $200,000. Good for you. I told you I made $100,000 in that one single month shorting silver, almost $200,000 on the entire trade. You finally acquiesced to the notion that even holding bonds has been a good trade (depending on what you own), because I've never seen you acknowledge anything about bonds before. The truth is, there is NO perfect system. I got out in 2008, also went short, missed jumping back in until the golden cross. Yes, I too, sometimes use very rudimentary timing systems. I also missed shorting Apple at 700 but not the death cross.

I just want to know one thing. How much money did you lose betting on Kansas State when you were so adamant they would beat Oregon, and I warned you otherwise?[/quote]

Coach D, where art thou? Especially with Apple getting crushed?

need advice wrote:

I'd like to get better returns than that. I heard you talk about 18% returns. That's more of what I would like.

Why stop there? I'd like advice on how to reliably get 50% returns.

Well, that was just in a good year (2012). 73% of years are up years which means 27% are down. An AVERAGE of about 11% is a very good call my brother. Wish for that.

But I need to know how to get that 18% figure.

Flagpole wrote:

Well, that was just in a good year (2012). 73% of years are up years which means 27% are down. An AVERAGE of about 11% is a very good call my brother. Wish for that.

need advice wrote:

I'd like to get better returns than that. I heard you talk about 18% returns. That's more of what I would like.

I can't help you out with that, brother. That's just what a good 2012 brought me. 2013 could tank for all I know at this point.Chasing certain percentages and getting in and out of the market is foolhardy. Historically mutual funds have brought about 11% annually since inception. 73% of years are up years. You just have to go with averages here and invest.The way to financial freedom and piece of mind is:1) Become debt free but for a home (or MAYBE a huge student loan that is allowing you to make BIG coin; doctor, lawyer, etc).2) Have emergency fund of 2-6 months of expenses depending on age and dependents.3) 15% or more into good growth stock mutual funds. 25% in each of the following: growth, growth and income, aggressive growth, and international.4) Buy a house with a mortgage that is no more than 25% of your take home pay. If keeping the above 3 things going, pay house off early.5) Once home is paid for, you now CAN invest in individual stocks if you want. No fewer than 5 stocks, and never more than ~20% in any one sector. This is all money you can lose, and if you're still working, you continue to fund your retirement accounts at the level you were before buying individual stocks. Takes time and effort to own individual stocks, so have time for homework on those stocks.6) At this point, you could fund college for kids if you want or put money into a non-retirement mutual fund or just spend a ton or give.

need advice wrote:

But I need to know how to get that 18% figure.

Flagpole wrote:

Well, that was just in a good year (2012). 73% of years are up years which means 27% are down. An AVERAGE of about 11% is a very good call my brother. Wish for that.

I guess you just don't understand. I don't want to putz around with this money. I want a solid and high return like you said you've been getting.

I own my house. No student loan. No kids, nor will I ever have kids. I have about $500K in assets I could sell today and have the money tomorrow, so emergency fund is not an issue. I just don't want to work for 30 more years.

You confuse me brother. I told you what I have been getting (~11% annually over my whole investing period) and you then say, NO, you want the 18% I got in 2012. I then explain that 2012 was a solid year and that you can't be guaranteed 18% and then you say you want that anyway.You seem to be set up nicely to retire early if you want. No kids, 30 years away from traditional retirement date with $500,000 in assets.If you want to retire early, live frugally and invest half your income or 40% of your income in good growth stock mutual funds, retirement accounts and then non-retirement mutual funds.There are no guarantees.

need advice wrote:

I guess you just don't understand. I don't want to putz around with this money. I want a solid and high return like you said you've been getting.

I own my house. No student loan. No kids, nor will I ever have kids. I have about $500K in assets I could sell today and have the money tomorrow, so emergency fund is not an issue. I just don't want to work for 30 more years.

Just scalped 3g's from Apple, 454 to 462. Calls are great.

What about Spanish 10 year government bonds? Decent yield and there is no way the EU will let Spain default.

Dow up 5 days in a row since I made the call. Flagpole sad.

Not sure there is any reason to be sad. Although up for 5 days in a row, they have not be spectacular days and there still is alot of money on the sidelines. What will occur, absent some "event" is when PEs get to high, the market will stagnate. If the market is still rising because money is still coming in then as PE ratios climb out of a comfortable range there is risk of a correction. The key is to be patient and ride out the highs and lows. For all those people who fled the market after losing alot during the major declines we saw, they also missed the recovery. History has shown the market always recovers. Only problem is when there comes a time you are living off those investments.

Flagpole wrote:

Dow up 5 days in a row since I made the call. Flagpole sad.

The market is getting very dangerous with poor fundamentals to support. I would look for a serious correction sometime in 2013.

need advice wrote:

I guess you just don't understand. I don't want to putz around with this money. I want a solid and high return like you said you've been getting.

I own my house. No student loan. No kids, nor will I ever have kids. I have about $500K in assets I could sell today and have the money tomorrow, so emergency fund is not an issue. I just don't want to work for 30 more years.

If you're looking for that kind of return on a consistent basis you need to seriously consider commodities. Post your email if interested.

CTA wrote:

need advice wrote:

I guess you just don't understand. I don't want to putz around with this money. I want a solid and high return like you said you've been getting.

I own my house. No student loan. No kids, nor will I ever have kids. I have about $500K in assets I could sell today and have the money tomorrow, so emergency fund is not an issue. I just don't want to work for 30 more years.

If you're looking for that kind of return on a consistent basis you need to seriously consider commodities. Post your email if interested.

Here is a hint for you: The dude known as "need advice" is just yanking Flagpole's chain. Flagpole may not have been able to see it due to his narcissistic tendencies. You appear to have missed it due to some combination of your gigantic ego and/or greed.

Please get a clue.

Market Analyst wrote:

Flagpole wrote:

Dow up 5 days in a row since I made the call. Flagpole sad.

The market is getting very dangerous with poor fundamentals to support. I would look for a serious correction sometime in 2013.

Oooh, you sound SO impressive and knowledgeable.

Some of you guys are absolutely hilarious.