When will we see 1:39.XX

I would guess within the next 12-24 months. He's already said that a 48.5-50.5 split is definitely within the range of possibility.

Pretty much as soon as he gets in a good race. His front running at the OGs was worth 1:39.7 or so. He could literally run 1:39 tomorrow if the right race was set up

Zurich, this year.

It's utterly impossible, that's how I know Rudisha will do it.

I don't think Rudisha will ever run under 1:40; maybe one more WR (but I doubt it) but not under 1:40,5.

But I also don't think the new WR will last for over 10 years like so many in the past.

Maybe we have seen the next WR holder in the Olympic finale...

Symmonds at Rieti next year!

Rupps split en route to 12:25 5000m.

Could be this year if somehow the meet promoters, agents, and Adidas come together collectively. Rudisha would need someone like Boaz Lalang (or other Adidas athlete) to pace him through 600 instead of 450 when Tangui normally dies. He'll also need at least 1 guy close enough to push him through the tape. Obviously, conditions would need to be perfect.

The perfect pacer would be Duane Solomon. He's big enough for Rudisha to get a draft off of and could run controlled enough splits and would be able to get him through 600 in 113 as evidenced by his 142.8 and 700/300 workout.

I personally think it will take a sub 44.5 400 runner to eventually break 1:40 in the 800.

said88 wrote:

I don't think Rudisha will ever run under 1:40; maybe one more WR (but I doubt it) but not under 1:40,5.

But I also don't think the new WR will last for over 10 years like so many in the past.

Maybe we have seen the next WR holder in the Olympic finale...

Agreed.

I don't think Amos will do it either. In fact I doubt he will ever run as fast again.

Why?

1) The London track was clearly a very fast one, as the world records (a women's 4 x 100m improved by 0.5!!) showed.

2) He was drafted to 600m, more than any other sub 1:42 guy received in their record/fast runs, which probably improved his finish time by 0.5. He also had Rudisha 5m in front of him as a target to aim for.

3) How confident can we be that he is genuinely 18 years of age?

4) Sometimes someone runs outside of themselves on such a great stage. He was practically "dying" at the finish & needed medical attention.

Amos has terrible form, esp. finishing. He looks like a high schooler finishing races, arms all over, head bent back 45 degrees, etc. It doesn't really seem possible for him to be moving as fast as he does, looking the way that he does, but somehow he closes at the same speed as Rudisha looking like he is completely coming apart. So, besides the fact that he is still rapidly improving and, supposedly, very young, form improvement is another area where he could find substantial additional time.

ztrack wrote:

It doesn't really seem possible for him to be moving as fast as he does, looking the way that he does, but somehow he closes at the same speed as Rudisha looking like he is completely coming apart.

That's sort of the same thing people said about Bolt when he was a junior. I'd like to see Amos make a deal with Qatar and get a good coach.

What do you think Rudisha can run in top form for the 400? Just curious.

On an interview with BBC last week, Rudisha confirmed that it would be 'very difficult' to run under 1:40.

If you add a good pacer in front of him, he basically ran the equivalent of 1:39:XX at the Olympics. At 18mph the draft effect is significant.

pjrgadsf wrote:

If you add a good pacer in front of him, he basically ran the equivalent of 1:39:XX at the Olympics. At 18mph the draft effect is significant.

THIIIIIS. I keep saying it but nobody listens. Drafting is worth 1sec/400. Now Rudisha couldn't actually draft a full two laps on anyone, given the start and such, but you can figure at least 400m with a good pacer (from 150m to 450m say). There's your 1sec and there's your 1:39.

asdfadsf wrote:

pjrgadsf wrote:

If you add a good pacer in front of him, he basically ran the equivalent of 1:39:XX at the Olympics. At 18mph the draft effect is significant.

THIIIIIS. I keep saying it but nobody listens. Drafting is worth 1sec/400. Now Rudisha couldn't actually draft a full two laps on anyone, given the start and such, but you can figure at least 400m with a good pacer (from 150m to 450m say). There's your 1sec and there's your 1:39.

150 - 450m is 300m or 0.75 for drafting. That brings his time down to 1:40.2. What you don't consider is that this track was very fast, something many athletes commented on. That probably helped him by a few tenths. So with perfect drafting from 150 - 450, we get a run worth about 1:40.5, still a long way from 1:39.

In reality very few athletes get drafting from 150 and other sub 1:42 races didn't get drafting beyond the bell. So we can take a few tenths off other performers too.

Possibly. Here's what you need:(1) Ideal weather conditions.(2) Nearly perfect pacing for 600m. Splits along the lines of 24.5 at 200m, 49.0 at 400m, 1:13.5 at 600m.(3) You need Rudisha commit to taking the risk of going throgh 600m in 1:13.5 which is vastly uncharted territory. The risk being that he completely blows up the last 100m and either DNFs or finishes with a 28.xx or 29.xx last 200m which could be a real longer-term confidence buster.

CPJ wrote:

...and will Rudisha run it?

In 1981, after the first 1:41 they were saying when will we see 1:40.XX

30 years later ...

Rudisha will do it under ideal conditions with a couple of very fast pacers to take him through 400m and 800m. After seeing him front run, and win the Olympic final in WR time I believe he will break the 1:40 mark. I wish him the best.