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| LetsRun.com your benevolent dictator |
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We've done it ourselves. http://www.letsrun.com/2012/odds-0801.php It's really hard to do actally. Take a look at our list and then post yours here. -LetsRun.com PS. Here is our top 5 to get you in the mood. Up to 30% (Up to 1 out of 3?) 1. Galen Rupp - He has two chances to medal and in the 10,000, the Kenyan and Ethiopians squads aren't very credentialed at all on the track in the 10,000. Only one Kenyan, Moses Masai, and one Ethiopian, Kenenisa Bekele, in the 10,000 has ever medalled before outdoors and both of those guys don't seem to be in their prime. To be truthful, he is the only American born athlete (maybe Lagat as well) we can really imagine wining gold. While we say he has two chances to medal, can anyone really see him doing it in the 5,000 if he doesn't first medal in the 10,000? 2. Evan Jager - On paper, it looks like there are at most five guys who should beat him if everyone has a great day. If one of the Kenyan falters, watch out and Kemboi was recently in prison. Up to 25% (Up to 1 in 4?) 3. Bernard Lagat - This may seem low for him but the competition is very, very tough as the Ethiopians are young and very good, plus there is Farah and a few Kenyans. Didn't medal in 2008 at age 33. Hard to see it happening at 37. 4. Nick Symmonds - Making the final is tough but once he's there he's got a decent shot. Up to 15% (1 in 7?) 5. Morgan Uceny -Despite being world #1, it's hard to see her medalling 1 out of 5 times as 11 women have broken 4:00 this year. Let's hope the drug testers are good and then her odds go way up. On fitness, Flanagan might deserve to be the top US women's hope but falls are way more often in the 1,500 and could benefit Uceny here. Afterall, she got screwed by a fall last year. |
| runner85 |
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1.)Lagat 50% (Knows how to peak, Knows how to race in championship races, it is his last shot.) 2.)Rupp 35% (10k is his best shot, but showed great form at 5k also) 3.)Jager 25% (Kenyans are too good, maybe someone falters) 4.)Uceny 20% ( Would really like to see her beat the dopers.) 5.)Montano 20% ( Jelimo, Russians and Semenya in her way) 6.)Flanagan 20% ( Anything can happen in marathon. she seems very motivated to do whatever it takes) 7.)Centro 20% (Could be rounding into form at the perfect time) 8.)Simpson 15% (In O.K. form hopefully the race plays out into her hands again) 9.)Solomon 10% (Dangerous if he can keep his peak form, looks like his times are catching up to his talent) 10.)Hall 10% ( After Makau and G. Mutai don't even make the team, maybe Hall can sneak into a medal somehow. Weather could play a crucial role. Heavy rain could be his best shot.) |
| AJAX |
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Why'd you feel the need to put an asterisk by Meb's silver medal? He's an American. Period. |
| RACISM |
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Two points: 1. Why an asterisk by Meb's name? He is as America as everyone else on the list. If he was not American-enough he would not be in the OLYMPICS representing the USA. VERY disappointed! 2. If you are going to point out that Meb was not American born, then you should also do your research about the other medal winners. A simple research would reveal that Frank Shorter was not "American-born." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Shorter Frank Shorter was born in Munich, Germany. Letsrun.com please provide an explanation!
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| alanson |
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Bob Schul took the Gold in the 5000 meters in 1964. |
| thirty-two |
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Not American born, which is what the article was specifying - out of interest. No one is saying Meb's not American. 1. Lagat - last time he lost at USA's was '07. We've seen this movie before. 2. Rupp - two legit chances and the 10,000 field is not stellar 3. Jager - steeple is also very shallow, and no Koech hurts Kenya big 4. Symmonds - tactically sound, plus the 800 is most ridiculous event in terms of 'anything can happen' 5. Matt Centro - always seems to find a way, plus won bronze in a similar field last year 6. Leo Manzano - if he's on has a excellent shot, due his huge kick and solid tactics 7. Morgan Uceny - she's an animal, and probably more fit than times indicate 8. Jenny Simpson - World Champ, 'nuff said 9. Duane Soloman - peaking at the right time, and will benefit from Rudisha's hard pace 10. Shannon Rowberry - really any of these women could be awarded a medal in 3 or 4 year when half the field gets busted - does that count? 11. Lopez Lomong - if the magic from Stanford returns he has a good shot 12. Andrew Wheating - if he somehow learns to race between now and the Olympics he'll do well, but that won't happen And that's everyone I think can medal. I just realized I left the 'thoners off - Hall and Meb fit in around Soloman and Rowburry. |
| Frommy |
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0% chance for american record holder Molly Huddle? I don't usually complain on the boards but Letsrun has no love for Huddle. For shame... Prove 'em wrong Molly, I'm behind ya! |
| LetsRun.com your benevolent dictator |
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We have changed the asterisk to refer to "non-naturalized US citizens." We loved Meb. Hell we were the ones that interviewed him the day or two before his NYC victory as we thought everyone was ignoring his great year: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3277635 But if you don't get the fact that being African born - being of East African descent - is an advantage in distance running then you don't follow the sport very closely. It would be like denying that being 7 feet tall increases your chances for the NBA. |
| LetsRun.com your benevolent dictator |
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Correct and Dellinger took bronze behind him so Dellinger was the last one to earn a medal in the event as he was finished after Schul. |
| rojo co-founder |
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I love Molly Huddle. I'm just stating the facts. Her uncle saved the life of one of my runners at Cornell who was involved in a motorcyle accident. We also just yesterday let her hometown paper use a picture we had of Huddle for free for their article. I don't know if it's in here or not but we gave them permission to use it: http://www.morning-times.com/news/2012-08-01/Front_Page/Elmira_native_has_chance_to_win_gold.html I'm also still mad that Huddle isn't listed as the 1,500 indoor record holder at Barton Hall at Cornell soley because the time she ran in HS was run without a curb up on the rail. |
| Hotshot Famclub |
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Thanks. You didn't expect the Brojo's not to give the board something to correct? ;-) |
| A Duck |
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Per the LRC intro to ranking the USA mid-d and distance teams... I think the most exciting thing is that we have so many qualifiers in so many events -- and many of those qualifiers now have significant international experience. Even Ritz ;-) It's exciting, and going to be interesting. We have 3 women in the 1500 who have regularly won or been on the podium in DL and WC's. Hopefully the Russians and others drugs have worn off by now. Possibly the women's 1500 is our best shot at a medal... I'd have say that the person with the best chance for a medal is Lagat, due to experience and usually being in the right place with 500 to go. Rupp....maybe a 20% chance - BUT if he has improvement over his last years' self.... Watch out. The most important thing Salazar could tell him before the race is "you are ready, this is the year, the time the race. I haven't told you this yet, but you can beat Farah, and the rest, it's your race, it's your time..." Rupp is tough, and fearless. Symmonds has the experience and the tough as nails attitude to make the final. Solomon, if he is ready for the rounds, and has his head right to seize the day, could shock us all. Manzano is tough, and he could surprise. Centro could be rounding into shape at the perfect time, and not over trained. Great tactician. Fearless racer. Andrew Wheating? Who knows? I'll be surprised to see him make the final...because he's been injured. Lamong...I have this feeling, that he has much more in him than he has shown since Stanford. He could shock. Hall... a cool weather day and everything falling into place for him and who knows... Again, the good news is that we have the most talented team we've ever had and the 3rd best squad in the world... A few of our athletes will underperform. Some will choke under the Olympic limelight. One should medal, just by the odd of 35 entries... And two should pop up and out perform expectations. Anyone excited? |
| My Modern Life |
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1) Lagat 80% (No way he is going to finish worse then 3rd) 2) Rupp 70% (30 % in the 5k and 40& in the 10k) 3) Jager 30% (also 30% he falls on a water jump) 4) Uceny 30% (strong enough finisher off a slow pace to place) 5) Flanagan 20% (Anything can happen in the Marathon) 6) Montano 20% (80% she goes out to hard and falls apart) 7) Solomon 20% (peaking at right time, keeps getting faster) 8) Rowbury 15% (shown better shape this year then Simpson + a bronze WC) 9) Lomong 10% (Off a slow pace he could kick for bronze) 10) Symmonds 5% (probably will leave himself to much ground to make up to place) 11) Hall 5% (you never know + maybe God's will?) 12) Coburn 5% (blonde hair and hot) Men's 1500m Runners .0005% (To inconstant and haven't seen anything out of them this year to make me believe they can hang with the Asbel Kiprop and Silas Kiplagat |
| Math |
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People may think our odds are low, but if you are a stat guy you will see that if we give Rupp and Jager 30% chances of medals, it means that there is basically a 50% chance (.7 * 7 = .49) that one of them medals. This math is wrong. |
| Logical Man |
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Both 30% and 40% are too high. Way too high. If they were correct, however, then Rupp's overall chance to medal would be 58% not 70%. |
| mgvgcf |
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Correct and Dellinger took bronze behind him so Dellinger was the last one to earn a medal in the event as he was finished after Schul.[/quote] On the podium the gold medal is given last. |
| mgvgcf |
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We have changed the asterisk to refer to "non-naturalized US citizens." We loved Meb. Hell we were the ones that interviewed him the day or two before his NYC victory as we thought everyone was ignoring his great year: http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=3277635 But if you don't get the fact that being African born - being of East African descent - is an advantage in distance running then you don't follow the sport very closely. It would be like denying that being 7 feet tall increases your chances for the NBA.[/quote] It's not being of East African descent that is an advantage. It's growing up there that does it. Meb lived in Eritrea for most of his childhood. If Meb had moved to San Diego ten years earlier he probably would not have turned out to be such a great runner. |
| SEG |
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Okay, I ran the numbers based on the the predictions you gave (because you said "up to X%", I gave each runner the number between X% and the next percent down) and here are the results: Chance of 0 medals: 17.0% Chance of 1 medal: 33.4% Chance of 2 medals: 28.9% Chance of 3 medals: 14.6% Chance of 4 medals: 4.8% Chance of 5+ medals: 1.3% If anyone else wants me to do the same for them, just post your percentages. |
| SEG |
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For runner85: Chance of 0 medals: 6.9% Chance of 1 medal: 22.4% Chance of 2 medals: 30.9% Chance of 3 medals: 23.8% Chance of 4 medals: 11.5% Chance of 5+ medals: 4.5% |
| SEG |
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For 'My Modern Life': Chance of 0 medals: 0.1% Chance of 1 medal: 8.3% Chance of 2 medals: 23.8% Chance of 3 medals: 31.1% Chance of 4 medals: 22.4% Chance of 5+ medals: 13.4% |
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