Gonna go with 'not far'. Will have an even bigger chance if they manage to bust a couple more Moroccan/French guys cough cough Mekhissi cough.
7:54.31 Paul Kipsiele Koech
7:56.81 Richard Kipkemboi Mateelong
8:01.67 Abel Kiprop Mutai
8:01.73 Brimin Kiprop Kipruto
8:03.43 Jairus Kipchoge Birech
8:06.10 Conseslus Kipruto
8:06.16 Roba Gari
8:10.20 Brahim Taleb
Best performances this year. If everything goes his way, he could snag a bronze.
|girls gettin real wild|
Not very far at all. He will be there on the last lap but probably be outkicked.
He needs sub 8 shape to have a real chance at a medal. He might be in sub 8 shape by the London final. Barely.
So far in distance medal chances:
Rupp 5+10 40%
Lagat 5 30%
1500m guys 25%
*Jager 3kS 20%
Symmonds 8 20%
Hall Mar 15%
We should get at least 1 or 2 medals on the men's side. This is definitely a big improvement from the teams in Beijing, Athens, and Sydney. The women should also get a medal or two probably either Montano and Uceny/Simpson.
I want to know what he could run in a 5k now... 13:22 back in '09... He would be under 13 now for sure! This kid has incredible strength and knows how to run a race.
Was this thing Rabbited? or run flat out?
World #1 Paul Koech, as of now, is not on the Kenyan Olympic team.
World #2 Richard Mateelong ran 8:16 today.
World #5 Jairus Birech is not on the Kenyan Olympic team, and ran 8:10 today.
World #6 Conseslus Kipruto is not on the Kenyan Olympic team.
World #8 is Evan Jager.
World #9 Brahim Taleb ran 8:14 today.
So that leaves only Abel Mutai, Brimin Kipruto, and Roba Gari as athletes that are both a) going to be in the Olympic field and b) clearly better than Jager in 2012. Perhaps Paul Koech ends up in the field, but then he takes the place of Mutai, Kipruto, or Ezekial Kemboi. I don't see how AK would justify that after today's results, but it's clear that Jager is squarely in the medal hunt for London. Freaking awesome.
He's a legit medal contender, no doubt. He's getting better and better every race, obviously has a ton of confidence, knows how to run with the leaders, and will only have to contend with three Kenyans at the Olympics (one of whom is an unknown, and their superstar is in the middle of a legal battle that might put him in prison...I'm guessing he won't be in top physical/mental condition)
This was Evan's first international event and he beat a lot of people with a lot more experience than him and was just off the heels of one of the best in history.
He's a medal man.
8:06/8:07 equates to a 12:55 I think.
Ummm, Jager beat several Kenyans in this race so I assume you are trolling. The last time an American beat a Kenyan in the Olympic final was 1988.
Adjusting for your obvious US bias we are left with the following realistic probabilities for US medals:
Rupp 5+10 10%
Lagat 5 25%
1500m guys 10%
*Jager 3kS 10%
Symmonds 8 10%
Hall Mar 0%
Overall about a 50% chance of zero medals on the men's side. Perhaps a 40% of one and 10% chance of more than one.