That was Brian Olinger's quote today and he's never run a marathon or half marathon (but has run an 8:19 steeple and 28:07 10k).
The question is what percent of guys and gals do you think are going into this thing thinking they can make the team.
A 2:45 woman probably just wants a pr but some 2:18 guys might even be thinking they can make it if everything falls together.
I'd say more of the men's field has the dream than the women's.
Olinger's quote is right at this point in this video if you want to watch: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnZo_NR3Kbs#t=282