Update on Ritz going into trials?

I don't understand why people are picking him top 3 at the trials. When is the last time he raced?

roads to madness wrote:

I don't understand why people are picking him top 3 at the trials. When is the last time he raced?

Maybe because of his potential and arguably has the biggest upside in the entire field.

Bigmizunga wrote:

Maybe because of his potential and arguably has the biggest upside in the entire field.

Biggest upside? What planet are you from?

Ritz has completed 5 marathons with an average time of around 2:12. If Hall ran a single 2:12 everyone would be saying he's all washed up (along with some stupid statements about God's coaching). I'm sorry but you can't just attribute five results to "bad luck", "he had a bad day", "he wasn't 100%"...

I agree. I read the RW piece on Ritz and although I think highly of him and his potential, I just don't see him doing anything special in the trials.

I can't recall him racing anytime recently. It's difficult to rattle off a 2:10/2:11 when you have been racing/training. But coming off of no racing I would think it would be near impossible. That said, If he pulls it off I'd be very impressed.

He raced a pair of sub-14 5ks 3-4 weeks ago.

Training in Albuquerque right now.

Saw him running in Albuquerque the other day. Looked smooth and like he was rolling pretty good.

if healthy, he'll qualify as he always pulls it together fast but I wonder what he could do at the Olympics if the marathon falls through and he has to concentrate on five and 10k, which are probably his best events.

Ritz has run at two Olympic Trials previously, and both times he made the team (one of them running on a broken foot). Ritz has attempted to qualify for three World teams, and he succeeded each time. Ritz has qualified for the World Cross team every time he ran Nationsls (five times, I believe). That's a pretty good record. Also, and I know this will sound insane, but if you look at the history of his Twitter account, the only time he posts about his workouts, his workouts are going very well. In the last two weeks or so he has posted twice about his long tempo runs. This is a very good sign. Lastly, Rupp reported that Ritz is in "great shape and healthy." Finally, it is a bit odd if he is in New Mexico, because he ran his last long tempo on December 28 in Portland.

Bigmizunga wrote:

roads to madness wrote:

I don't understand why people are picking him top 3 at the trials. When is the last time he raced?

Maybe because of his potential and arguably has the biggest upside in the entire field.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

if healthy, he'll qualify as he always pulls it together fast but I wonder what he could do at the Olympics if the marathon falls through and he has to concentrate on five and 10k, which are probably his best events.

I asked him (via his blog) if he thought that 12k XC or perhaps the half marathon where his strongest events, and he agreed. I personally think he would be better off if either one of those were Olympic events.

I think Ritz is a bit of a wildcard going into the Trials. I would have a hard time betting for or against him right now. No one will really know how fit he is until the race is over. The only person I'd be shocked to see have a bad day and miss the team is Hall.

Well, head to head, Ritz still beats nearly all top US marathoners/half marathoners. He isn't necessarily the favorite, but if we think he is healthy, it would be hard not to put him in 2nd or 3rd. Hall is the heavy favorite, Meb has earned a top 3 seed, and from there, a healthy Ritz is in the mix.

*stipe wrote:

Well, head to head, Ritz still beats nearly all top US marathoners/half marathoners. He isn't necessarily the favorite, but if we think he is healthy, it would be hard not to put him in 2nd or 3rd. Hall is the heavy favorite, Meb has earned a top 3 seed, and from there, a healthy Ritz is in the mix.

Not disagreeing. I see him (if healthy) as one of just a few who have a good shot to make the team (along with Hall, Meb, Rupp, Mo). I like Ritz. And I think he is a great talent. But I just think folks get carried away by declaring that he has the most upside out of everyone (I seriously don't see how anyone could say this with a straight face).

To me it is just like on that Rupp thread where Rupp was clearly the favorite over Hall (again, Rupp's very talented so you never know but declaring him the favorite over Hall - how can anyone say that with a straight face?)

91.5633% sure:

3rd place at the trials will be 2:11:30>2:12:+

I would say third place at the trials will be 2:11:01. How's that?

1. Rupp

2. Hall

3. Meb

laffitup wrote:

I would say third place at the trials will be 2:11:01. How's that?

1. Rupp

2. Hall

3. Meb

Rupp 1st???????

You realize that there is a small section of the South China sea that has red tide at the moment. Thus alone will be enough to worry Alberto that Guppie will be way to neatively affected all the way in Houston and might not allow him to recover in time to run the 10k trials race. Hence Rupp is a DNS in 2 weeks time.

We all know that red tide in the ocean 5000mi away can not be stopped by some goofy ass darth vaderish respiratory mask.

I'd bet all of Flagpole Willy's money and $3.00 of my own that Ritz makes the team. In fact, I actually expect him to win the Trials.

laffitup wrote:

I would say third place at the trials will be 2:11:01. How's that?

1. Rupp

2. Hall

3. Meb

allcap, no cow wrote:

91.5633% sure:

3rd place at the trials will be 2:11:30>2:12:+

I agree, somewhat. I think over 2:12 sounds a bit high, but 2:11-something sounds about right to me.

Don't forget, we don't know what the weather will be like. 67 degrees and humid is not out of the question for Houston in January, and no one knows just how hellish that can be in this part of the world until you've actually run in it. If it's warm and humid, I'd be shocked to see the winning time under 2:10.

Just because third place might be 2:12 doesn't mean it will be any easier. They may go out in 1:08 or so. So you need to be able to run a 1:04 second half to get third.

i heard rupp is in it just to pace ritz and then he is going to drop out. saladbar just wants him to get in a nice workout.