OK, let's be objective here. If you take the top 5k PERFORMERS for 2008 and 2009, Ritz is #6. He is just 2 seconds outside of #4 and 4 seconds outside of #3. If you look at the marathon list for the same years, and this is before Berlin and Chicago this year, #6 would be 2:05:20. Sub 2:05:59 would be 9th on the list and nearly 90+ seconds behind the top 3 guys. And this is assuming Ritz takes off 4 minutes from his marathon PR.
So let's see... where is Ritz more competitive? On the track where he is 3rd fastest this year and 6th fastest performer over the last 2 years, 4 seconds shy of being the 3rd fastest? Or in the marathon where a theoretically 4 minute improved Ritz is still 90 seconds outside of 3rd fastest for the past 2 years and 40+ seconds outside the top 6.
I think its more likely Ritz can medal in a 5,000 or a 10,000 then medal against guys who can run 2:04:mid. I find it doubtful Ritz ever runs faster then 2:05:30 but could believe that he runs a 13:40/13:10 (for a 26:50) Championship 10k by 2012.
What would you rather do... go into a marathon ranked 9th and a minute behind the top 3 or go into a 5k or 10k ranked top 6 and within 5 seconds of the top 3? I would rather the latter. And this is asssuming Ritz can run sub 2:06!!!
5K:
Bekele: 12:50.18
Masai: 12:50.55
TBekele: 12:52.45
Kipsiro: 12:54.7
Soi: 12:55.03
Ritz: 12:56.27
Marathon:
Geb: 2:04:26
Kibet: 2:04:27
Kwambai: 2:04:27
Kirui: 2:05:04
Wanjiru: 2:05:10
Kebede: 2:05:20
Gharib: 2:05:27
Kipruto: 2:05:47
Mutai: 2:06:29
Limo: 2:06:45
Merga: 2:06:50