When will the 5000m AR be broken?

When Lagat decides to go out and run a fast one. If he does not i think Teg has the best chance. With his new training location and knowledge i think he will train better and run faster than his 13:04 this summer.

I have to think that Webb could handle it, if he devoted a season to it (but why would he?). I haven't seen any other man currently on the American scene who has the ability.

I'd love to have about six guys prove me wrong, but I don't think there are very many Americans who can handle 62s for 12 1/2 laps. Shoot, how many can handle that pace for 7 1/2 laps (i.e. 7:45 or better for 3000)?

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

Separate question: who's gonna take down the women's AR? And when?

I think Webb is about the only one with the wheels to do it as well (and his 10k implies he has the endurance) if he focused on it. And he should, because that is his ONLY chance at a championship medal of any kind. That or the steeple maybe if he could make the conversion.

german

bernard lagat should get the record, if he wants it, but he has to do it in the next 2 years, eventually age will catch up to him.

for the woman flanagan should be able to break her own record, by about 10 seconds.

section2runner wrote:

german

I believe you need sub-3:55 mile speed at least to go sub-13:00. Probably faster. And whether or not Kennedy ever ran that fast, he was certainly capable of it. Is German, because I don't know?

Sagarin wrote:

I think Webb is about the only one with the wheels to do it as well (and his 10k implies he has the endurance) if he focused on it. And he should, because that is his ONLY chance at a championship medal of any kind. That or the steeple maybe if he could make the conversion.

Webb has a great shot at 1500m if he is in shape and peaks at the right time.

1)he has finally figured out that race tactically. in Osaka he was in the perfect position with 120 to go but didn't have it in his legs. He had some dominating wins during the season too.

2)He has ran 1:43 for 800m now...he has speed

3)He doesn't have the right build to run 5000m-look at his body type when he ran his 27:3x 10000m vs now-he is much bigger and has commited to being an 800/1500 man.

4)The 1500m race right now is much weaker then the 5000m. Do you honestly see Webb running with Kenenisa/Choge/Sihine at 12:55 pace fartleking the entire way? I do, but only for 3000-4000m, tops. And there is no evidence he has a better kick then most of the 5000m men anyway, has Webb ever closed a 1500/mile in under 55? The 1500m has Ramzi, Kiprop, then....no one. Maybe willis but he should be no problem for Webb at the top of his game.

5)The 800m would have been a choice after his 2007 season (having the #2 time and .1 off of #1 and beating gary reed)but 2008 was a hot season for the 800.

6)Mentally he thinks he is a miler and always will so he will never reach his true potential at 5000m because he is not willing to do the specific training/cut out the upper body work to be successful at it. I think he could be good at it if he wanted to but I guess it is the same as Wariner and the 800m.

I do think he would be good at steeple though and could go sub 8:10, but the kenyans pretty much have a lock on that event.

I could see German going 3:53-3:54 in a few years...

the 1500m is webbs race wrote:

1)he has finally figured out that race tactically. in Osaka he was in the perfect position with 120 to go but didn't have it in his legs. He had some dominating wins during the season too.

2)He has ran 1:43 for 800m now...he has speed

6)Mentally he thinks he is a miler and always will so he will never reach his true potential at 5000m because he is not willing to do the specific training/cut out the upper body work to be successful at it. I think he could be good at it if he wanted to but I guess it is the same as Wariner and the 800m.

Wholeheartedly agree with your 6th point, but not your 1st and 2nd. Webb has in no way exhibited that he knows how to position himself when it matters most, and he showed that once again in the US trials. He may have been in good standing in Osaka, but only because he had brilliant form that year, which enabled him to be there at the end but not the VERY END. He has the basic 800 speed, yes, but not the closing speed to go over the last 200-300 meters. He will never contend at 1500. He has a CHANCE to contend at 5000 IF he does, in fact, focus on it.

I hope you are saying that it wont be broken by a white person or a real american and not implying that a white person is the only kind of real american.

Because that / was seemingly a very racist one.

BTW I dont agree that a white guy or an american born person will never run faster than BKs record.

How exactlty does your statement help his cause?...

Webb will get it in a few years.

If Scotty Bauhs focuses on the 5000m he will break it.

there have been plenty of "white" americans that had the talent to run faster. Teg can run 12:55. Back in the day guys like Falcon and Trautman both had the talent but ended up with injuries.

If Webb focused on it, it would be his.

There is absolutely no reason to think that he can't run at least as fast as Mottram - he has a faster 1500/mile pr and on paper they're basically even in the 10000 (although it took Webb only one try to run 27:34 vs. several attempts for Mottram).

whitebread wrote:

there have been plenty of "white" americans that had the talent to run faster. Teg can run 12:55. Back in the day guys like Falcon and Trautman both had the talent but ended up with injuries.

Having the talent is one thing. Actually doing it is something completely different.

Sagarin wrote:

section2runner wrote:

german

I believe you need sub-3:55 mile speed at least to go sub-13:00. Probably faster. And whether or not Kennedy ever ran that fast, he was certainly capable of it. Is German, because I don't know?

4:00 flat at California state meet as a high school senior; followed by 8:34 2 mile I think.

chris derrick ran 13:55 and he's just in high school.

Scotty B will be the next American to go sub 13 and break the AR. The guy is an up and coming runner with a solid work ethic and the desire to win. You heard it hear first!