Why can't Ritz run sub 13?

Don't worry, Flagpole. I'm sure the guys who post results to the IAAF web site will show Ritz running 12:57 at some meet this summer.

BK had a whole lot more speed, and more experience going into his sub13's. The guy focused on Mile's and 3000's, that makes the difference. Ritz is good, but not as quick as BK, even if he has more of a strength background. The thing is, I wouldn't be surprised if Ritz never breaks 13 simply because he may not run it often enough since his focus will be the marathon and sometimes the 10000.

But FW, what do you really hope to get out of this thread? The only way we will ever know if he can do it or not, is if he actually does it. Arguing about the chances given such and such variables still doesn't mean he will run sub 13. Look at Culpepper, the guy has a similar 10000 and 1500 credentials but he has been around 13:20 for his 5000 PR, even after he focused on it. Anyway, all I'm saying is one can make pretty good arguments either way, but in the end, it doesn't mean he can or will do it.

weston wrote:

Anyway, all I'm saying is one can make pretty good arguments either way, but in the end, it doesn't mean he can or will do it.

Good point, but in a sport in which speculation rules, I find it so hard to believe that some are so adamant that he won't even remotely approach 13:00. It's easy to find the reasons why someone ran a sub 13:00 after they've done it.

I agree with you that if Ritz has very good success in the marathon that he will may not break 13:00.

None of those things lead me to believe Ritz will break 13.

How many Americans have run 4:00 for the mile or faster? A shitload. How many have broken 13? 2.

So he outkicked Ryan Hall. So what? That doesn't mean squat. Hall is a 4:00 miler himself and has been inconsistent.

So what if Bob Kennedy ran 13:14 at 25? That doesn't magically mean Ritz can do anything. Teg is younger (or close to it) than Ritz and has a faster PR and faster mile PR.. Tim Broe is in about the same boat too. He's got a fast 1500m PR than Ritz and is faster over 5000m. Webb has a much, much faster 1500/mile a faster 5k (in less attempts) and faster 10k (in only one try).

So what I'm hearing isn't just that Ritz should break 13 minutes for 5k, but that Teg, Dobson, Hall, Broe, Webb and probably others will do it too. I don't think that's going to be the case. Running under 13 is a pretty damn big achievement for an American and you are making it seem easy b/c your reasoning applies to at least a half dozen others Americans.

Hudson and Ritz are of the view that Ritz's injuries have been caused by speed work--therefore, he runs very little on the track under 64. If his training continues in this way, it will be very hard to run 63 per lap for 5k. I still think in two or three years he can run sub 13:00, but I wouldn't be surprised if he gets only as low as, say, mid 13:00s.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

weston wrote:

Anyway, all I'm saying is one can make pretty good arguments either way, but in the end, it doesn't mean he can or will do it.

Good point, but in a sport in which speculation rules, I find it so hard to believe that some are so adamant that he won't even remotely approach 13:00. It's easy to find the reasons why someone ran a sub 13:00 after they've done it.

I agree with you that if Ritz has very good success in the marathon that he will may not break 13:00.

here is why i think ritz won't run sub 13...webb has shown he is faster than Ritz in the 10K and clearly in the 1500...webb ran a 13:10 in a well-paced 5K race... i'm not saying that is webb's potential in the 5K but it was probably a pretty good race for him and it was at the end of the season.lagat is an experienced runner (maybe not so much at the 5K) and lagat is extremely strong and fast... he managed to barely go under 13. I don't think ritz is anywhere in the same league as lagat and until he is I don't suspect he'll be running times similar to lagat's in the 5keven with all your evidence you try to give i just don't feel that ritz has the speed to go sub 13 in a 5k - ever

Flagpole Willy wrote:

weston wrote:

Anyway, all I'm saying is one can make pretty good arguments either way, but in the end, it doesn't mean he can or will do it.

Good point, but in a sport in which speculation rules, I find it so hard to believe that some are so adamant that he won't even remotely approach 13:00. It's easy to find the reasons why someone ran a sub 13:00 after they've done it.

I agree with you that if Ritz has very good success in the marathon that he will may not break 13:00.

I agree. Here is my thinking:

Ritz has a decent chance of breaking 13flat if he focused on it for two years straight (ie running 3000-5000 most of the time) and working on speed. But this is also contigent on him being relatively healthy for that time, which we can all agree now is a BIG if. But I don't think it really is his plan to try for sub13flat and to focus on longer distances so we probably won't see it, and frankly I wouldn't be surprised if him and Hudson really don't care if he breaks out or not. Webb will make a bigger contribution to US running by focusing on the 10 and the marathon which he is better at. I agree he has a lot of talent and the main thing is that he is still young, so it is reasonable to think he can keep improving in this event. Same with Webb.

Ritz does not have the speed or stamina. He ran something like 8:22 at the Pre 2mile in 2005. That's dead on for 13:00 pace, but only 2/3 the distance. If he wants to be a good 5k or even 10k runner he needs to get his mile time down and his strength up.

BTW, does anyone else think running NYC is the dumbest move Ritz could have evere made? It's almost like he wants to do everything he can to screw himself over. I don't understand it.

Teg is older than Ritz.

I don't think Hall is that great either, but many do, and they say he has this great kick (which I've never seen), so it was just an example to those people that Ritz outkicked him.

Webb will break 13:00 if he focuses on it. None of the others have Ritz's talent.

No American distance runners other than Webb and Ritz have even hinted that they want to someday become one of the best in the world. KK, Lagat, and Meb excluded.

Just because 13:00 is tough to break doesn't mean someone else won't do it. I'm not making it seem easy. If it were easy, I'd go do it. It is within Ritz's ability though -- in my opinion.

Before anyone thinks I just started this to argue, I'll say this -- thanks for the responses. I just really wanted to know why you all thought he wouldn't do it. Interesting and decent responses.

Thanks.

Ahh... talent. How is that measured?

Your criteria are met by several others. Give me one reason why Ritz should run under 13:00 and Teg can't. Or Hall or Dobson. They are all as fast or faster.

Your problem is that you are in love with Ritz. That and you have set yourself to succeed. If Ritz doesn't run under 13 it will be due to injuries or something else, not b/c he just couldn't do it. If he does, of course, you get to ride his coattails as if you did something. Have you ever met him? Are you buddies with him? You seem to have a deep emotional connection to his performances and I don't get it. Sometimes I get really excited for an athlete if he does well, but that's b/c I know the guy. I can't imagine going on and on about someone you've never met like you do. It's pathetic.

Ritz doesn't have the talent to run sub 13. It's that simple. I'm sure he's a very hard worker and all but that's just not enough. I think Ritz doing NY this fall is a great move. He has absolutely no chance of ever medalling on the track but he could be world class in the marathon. I think Ritz is as tough as most of the guys on the world stage and so he should do an even that plays to his strengths.

Why can't any American run sub 13? Only 2 have.

Alan

Who outkicked who at the NCAA XC champs when Ritz/Hall went 1-2?

Wow, that was kind of harsh. I don't know why everyone beats up on FW so much. Yes, he has a special man-love for Ritz, but there's nothing wrong with that, right? :)

Mtn Dew wrote:

Your problem is that you are in love with Ritz.

So, I can't recognize greatness in someone without being "in love" with them? I remember teasing people about loving a sports figure when I was 12.

Ritz has better victories and more impressive runs than any of the guys you've mentioned. He's done it when not as fit too.

tigranya wrote:

Who outkicked who at the NCAA XC champs when Ritz/Hall went 1-2?

Who outkicked "whom" aside, what's your point? I know Ritz outkicked Hall. One of the many reasons he is superior.

Actually Mtn Dew has a good point - what is the reason that Ritz can break 13min in your head but Hall or Dobson can't? All of them are quite young and all have very similar PR's and one can argue that since Hall and Dobson are slightly faster and work on more speed, it compensates for Ritz's strength advantage. I don't see why they shouldn't be thought of as potential sub13 candidates alongside Ritz. Even if you think Ritz is better, and maybe asign a 60% chance of him EVER breaking 13 in his career, you'd have to give Hall/Dobson a 55% chance or so at least of going under too.

Flagpole Willy wrote:

So, I can't recognize greatness in someone without being "in love" with them? I remember teasing people about loving a sports figure when I was 12.

Ritz has better victories and more impressive runs than any of the guys you've mentioned. He's done it when not as fit too.

I mentioned Tim Broe in the first post, certainly you weren't counting him.