NCAA XC women’s team preview: NC State vs BYU (again) — or can Oregon crash the party?

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North Carolina State and Brigham Young have combined to win the last five NCAA women’s cross country titles, so perhaps it should come as no surprise that the two schools will enter the 2025 NCAA cross country championships on Saturday in Columbia, Mo., ranked #1 (NC State) and #2 (BYU) in the coaches’ poll. Both teams are stacked with talent — it would not be a shock if half of the top 10 consisted of Wolfpack/Cougar runners — and BYU has the individual favorite in superstar freshman Jane Hedengren. Can BYU draw level with NC State at three titles apiece in the battle for best team of the 2020s, or will NC State take a commanding 4-2 lead?

Or will another team emerge to upset the two superpowers? #6 Oregon is lurking after a huge performance at the Big 10 meet and is seeking its fifth NCAA title in Columbia — and first of the Shalane Flanagan era. Here’s a closer look at each contender below.

#1 NC State

Why NC State could win: NC State reeled off three straight titles from 2021-23 with a core of Katelyn Tuohy, Kelsey Chmiel, and Sam Bush. NC State spent one year rebuilding in 2024 (and still finished 8th at NCAAs) and now once again has a group that looks capable of contending for multiple national titles: their top five at ACCs consisted of two juniors (Grace Hartman and Hannah Gapes), two sophomores (Angelina Napoleon and Bethany Michalak), and a freshman (Sadie Engelhardt).

NC State’s front four is really good. Hartman (5th) and Gapes (8th) were both in the top 10 at NCAAs a year ago and should finish in that range again this year. Hartman actually looked to have taken a step forward by winning the Nuttycombe Invite this year, though she was only 4th at ACCs after tying up in the final kilometer. Hartman dealt with a plantar fascia issue over the summer and did not race regionals, but NC State coach Laurie Henes told LetsRun.com that skipping regionals was always part of the plan and Hartman ran a workout that day instead. She should be good to go on Saturday.

While juniors Hartman and Gapes are at a similar level to last year, the two sophomores in NC State’s top four, Angelina Napoleon and Bethany Michalak, have taken huge steps forward. Napoleon was a revelation in the steeplechase this summer, going from 3rd at NCAAs to 2nd at USAs to 9th at the World Championships in Tokyo. Exactly one month after the Worlds final, Napoleon ran her first XC race, finishing 2nd at Nuttycombe, and she followed that up by winning ACCs. Henes said Napoleon will get a much-needed break in December, but right now she is impressed by how Napoleon has been able to keep her breakout year going.

“She keeps saying, ‘People keep expecting me to be tired, and I’m not,'” Henes said. “And I’m like, well, you’ve done quite a bit here.”

Michalak, meanwhile, has followed up a spring in which she ran 15:43 for 5k with a fall that has included a 9th-place finish at Nuttycombe and an 8th-place finish at ACCs. Any team that can put four in the top 11 at Nuttycombe is going to be dangerous at NCAAs.

Why NC State could lose: NC State is relying on a true freshman miler, Sadie Engelhardt, at #5. Though to be fair to Engelhardt, she is one of the fastest high school milers ever (4:27 pb) and has passed every test so far this fall, finishing 18th at Nuttycombe and 10th at ACCs. If she can run like that again on the big stage Saturday, the Wolfpack have a great chance to win. But if someone in NC State’s top five slips up, there is a pretty large gap to their #6 — likely Brooke Rauber, who was 50th at NCAAs last year but was only 64th at Nuttycombe in October.

#2 BYU

Why BYU could win: BYU went 1-2-6-7-8-10 at Pre-Nats for just 25 points (granted, the field was not as strong as Nuttycombe) and has the advantage of effectively scoring four thanks to ace freshman Jane Hedengren. BYU also has a fantastic #2 in Riley Chamberlain (3rd Pre-Nats, 3rd Big 12s).

Overall, this may be a better BYU team than the version that won it all a year ago. The problem is, that may not be enough to win it all in 2025. BYU’s winning score of 147 last year was the highest since 2011. The top teams are stronger this year, which means we could see two or three squads better that total on Saturday.

Why BYU could lose: BYU isn’t quite as strong as NC State at the #3 and #4 spots — the gap from BYU’s #2 to #3 was 37 seconds at Pre-Nats, 34 seconds at Big 12s, and 35 seconds at the Mountain regional. If it’s that big at NCAAs, it’s hard to see BYU winning.

The good news for the Cougars is they have a lot of options in those spots. If one of NC State’s top five has an off day, the Cougars may be in position to pounce. But if NC State runs to their ability at NCAAs, BYU will need some of their depth pieces to step up in order to have a chance. Here are their options in those spots:

• Carmen Alder (4:14/15:51 pbs): After failing to crack the top 200 in her first two NCAA XC appearances, Alder was 39th last year to finish as BYU’s #3 scorer at NCAAs. But that was after finishing 10th at Big 12s. This year, she was only 17th.
• Taylor Rohatinsky (4:12 1500): Rohatinsky, niece of 2006 NCAA XC champ Josh, was BYU’s #4 scorer at NCAAs last year in 43rd. But, like Alder, she didn’t finish as high at Big 12s this year (27th) as last year (7th) — though she was 6th at Pre-Nats.
• Nelah Roberts (10:10 steeple): Roberts was 83rd at NCAAs as a true freshman last year and has taken a step forward this fall, finishing as BYU’s #3 at Big 12s, 10th overall.
• Taylor Lovell (15:52/9:37 steeple): Similar to Roberts, Lovell was 88th at NCAAs last year but looks to have improved in 2025 after taking 11th at Big 12s. She has also finished 9th in the last two NCAA steeple finals.

For BYU to win, they’ll probably need one of those women in the 20s and the other two in the 30s. And that is possible. BYU has typically peaked well for NCAAs under Taylor, and she believes that the big gap between #2 and #3 can close at NCAAs.

“That entire 3-4-5-6-7, they’re running faster [in practice] than last year’s group,” Taylor said. “That I know…We have a great pack and a lot of depth and we haven’t seen all the pieces come together like I know that they can. We’ve seen it in practice. We haven’t seen it in a race.”

One athlete who is not likely to be in that group, however, is 15:16 5k runner Jenna Hutchins. Hutchins was injured over the summer, and while she is back training now, Taylor said she probably will not race on Saturday.

#6 Oregon

You may have noticed that I skipped over #3, #4, and #5 and went straight to #6. Why? A couple of reasons.

1) Oregon is under-ranked. Oregon began the season ranked #2 in the coaches’ poll but dropped to #4 after finishing 6th at Gans Creek in September — even though Oregon was missing three of their top runners. Oregon was also beaten at the West regional, where the Ducks were second to Stanford. But in the one meet where Oregon ran their full squad, Big 10s, the Ducks put on a show and scored 18 points. At full strength, this team can win it all.

2) #3 Florida, #4 New Mexico, and #5 Notre Dame are unlikely to win.

Florida has a strong top four, but I don’t think their #5 is good enough to win. Florida’s #5 at SECs was Reagan Gilmore; BYU put nine women ahead of her at Pre-Nats.

New Mexico has similar questions at #5. They were only 9th at Nuttycombe, and while that was without Pamela Kosgei, even if Kosgei won the race, UNM would only have improved to 5th place.

Notre Dame is a very good team and scored just 22 points at the Great Lakes regional. But they’ve raced NC State twice this year and been clobbered twice.

Now, on to the Ducks…

Why Oregon can win: Oregon has only shown its cards once this year, but its performance at Big 10s was so good — a record-low 18 points — that the Ducks have to be taken seriously as an NCAA title contender. Their top three of Diana Cherotich (15:23/31:45), Juliet Cherubet (11th at ’24 NCAA XC for Texas Tech), and South Carolina transfer Silan Ayyildiz (13th at ’24 NCAA XC, 4:23 NCAA mile record) all have the potential of finishing in the top 15 in Missouri.

Behind them, Dalia Frias (15:56, 5th at Big 10s), Mia Barnett (4:05 1500), and Anika Thompson (15:31 5k, 32nd in ’24) give the Ducks three solid options for the other two scoring spots.

Of those three, Ducks coach Shalane Flanagan said she is especially proud of Frias, a prep star (4:33 1600 in high school) who has been through injury hell over the last two years. Frias, who transferred from Duke in 2024, has endured injuries to her labrum and femur as well as navicular surgeries on both feet that prevented her from racing at all in 2024-25. It got to the point where Flanagan thought her career might be over. Instead, Frias has resurrected her career, and she could play a key role for the Ducks this weekend.

“Honestly, I thought I’d never really truly see her run again. Like, ever,” Flanagan said. “…She’s an amazing story.”

Before leaving for NCAAs, Flanagan held a meeting where she asked her team a question: what does it take to win a national title? The team took some guesses before Flanagan revealed the answer: 98.9 points, based on an average of the last 10 NCAA champions.

Obviously, some years, the number is higher and some years, it’s lower. But Flanagan believes that if her team runs its best on Saturday, they will be in that range: Cherotich/Cherubet/Ayyildiz in the top 15-20 and two out of Frias/Barnett/Thompson in the 20-50 range.

“I believe we’re roughly 100 [points] on a great day,” Flanagan says.

Why Oregon could lose: NC State could be a bit stronger at #4. And it’s the NCAA meet. Unlike NC State and BYU, none of Oregon’s runners have been part of an NCAA XC title team before. Flanagan acknowledges there will be pressure on her group, but she wants them to understand that it is normal to feel that way — because that is how Flanagan felt during her own NCAA career, which included NCAA individual titles in 2002 and 2003.

“It’s all relative, right?” Flanagan said. “We’re not doing surgery that is going to save a life. We are literally doing something that we choose to do...I try to teach them that life is full of challenges and we are constantly having to overcome them, but this is a really joyful pressure situation that we should fully embrace.”

JG prediction: 1. NC State 2. Oregon 3. BYU

This should be a terrific race: these are three great teams and I wouldn’t be surprised if all of them score fewer than BYU’s winning total of 147 from a year ago. NC State and Oregon have shown a bit more at #4 and #5 this year than BYU, but if Taylor says her #4 and #5 are training better than last year, I expect them to run well at NCAAs.

I think BYU needs a little more to go right to win than NC State and Oregon — I can see those two teams putting three in the top 20, but it’s harder to envision BYU doing the same. I’ll take NC State FTW, mainly based on their 41-point performance at Nuttycombe.

Talk about 2025 NCAA xc on our world-famous messageboard / fan forum:

• Wow: Jane Hedengren recently closed a version of the Michigan workout in 4:27 at altitude
  
• Will Jane Hedengren’s height eventually hold her back
• Roster limits are killing the sport!!! Oh wait, the Georgia men made it to NCAAs with just 6 men on the roster
• Ok State watch out. Jeremy Sudbury says Iowa St has 5 guys that could go sub-27:50 right now

Have you entered our free NCAA XC prediction contest? Play with your friends now. Be sure to come back to LetsRun.com each and every day this week for more NCAA coverage. We’ll also be doing live video shows from Columbia. Join the Supporters Club to catch them on demand as a podcast. Catch up with what we’ve already published below.

Catch up with our previous NCAA coverage: 

NCAA XC men’s individual preview: Can American Rocky Hansen upset favorites Habtom Samuel & Brian Musau? Samuel has finished 2nd twice in a row while Musau won the NCAA indoor & outdoor 5k titles in 2025. The 20-year-old Hansen is the US’s best hope to extend their win streak to 6 in a row as he has impressed with big wins at Panorama Farms & ACCs.

Jane Hedengren looks to make history as first freshman in 40 years to win NCAA women’s XC title BYU coach Diljeet Taylor says that after running 4:23 and 14:57 on the track last spring, Hedengren has reached an even higher level this fall. She also reveals Hedengren won’t be trying out for the USA’s World XC team in December.

NCAA XC men’s team preview: OK State looks for 2nd title in 3 years as Iowa State chases title amid controversy OK State is #1 after a magnificent performance at Big 12s. Can the Cowboys win a second title in three years? Or can Iowa State, which has dealt with multiple suspensions and an arrest in 2025, win its first title in 31 years? Does #3 New Mexico have a prayer? Plus we’ll tell you why no one else does.
*Ok State watch out. Darren Gauson says New Mexico has 5 guys that could go sub-27:50 right now

*NCAA Cross Country is RUINED – Teams like Florida Women, OSU and New Mexico ruin NCAA Cross Country