NCAA XC men’s individual preview: Can American Rocky Hansen upset favorites Habtom Samuel & Brian Musau?

When Habtom Samuel is in an NCAA final, drama tends to follow. Samuel, a 21-year-old junior at the University of New Mexico by way of Eritrea, won his first NCAA title in the 10,000 meters in 2024 after overcoming a fall with just 900 meters to go in the race. Five months later, he finished second at the NCAA cross country championships despite running the second half of the race with only one shoe (a LetsRun.com visitor found Samuel’s shoe, bloody and torn, and was able to return it to him after the race). That runner-up finish became something of a pattern for Samuel in 2024-25 as he took second in the indoor 5,000 final in March before notching two more seconds in the 5,000 and 10,000 outdoors.

On Saturday, Samuel will be chasing the individual title at the 2025 NCAA cross country championships in Columbia, Mo. Can Samuel break his string of 4-straight runner-up finishes and take home the gold? Could his rival Brian Musau of Oklahoma State deny him once again? Or could another runner — perhaps American Rocky Hansen of Wake Forest — steal the show? Below, a look at the top men’s individual contenders at NCAAs this year.

The Favorite

Habtom Samuel, junior, New Mexico
Country: Eritrea
2025 results: 1st Nuttycombe Invite, 1st Mountain West, 1st Mountain regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 2nd in 2023, 2nd in 2024
Track pbs: 13:04 5k, 26:51 10k. 2nd in NCAA outdoor 5k and 10k finals in 2025.

The case for him: Samuel is a proven NCAA performer, having finished second behind Harvard’s Graham Blanks at the last two NCAA XC championships. Now Blanks is a pro and Samuel has assumed his role as the man to beat at NCAA XC. Samuel has won all three of his XC races this fall, most notably the Nuttycombe Invitational in October, where he dropped the hammer with 1200 meters to go and pulled away to win by 7.6 seconds.

Samuel is a true 10k man — his 26:51 pb ranks #2 in NCAA history — and cross country favors him. He may have been outkicked by Musau twice in NCAA track finals this year, but he has beaten Musau convincingly both times they have raced at NCAA XC.

The case against him: Musau has proven to have a superior kick if it comes down to that over the last 200. So expect Samuel to make a hard, extended push at some point in the final two miles and try to squeeze the life out of the rest of the field.

“10k only helps Habtom, so we’re certainly not going to let it go [slow for] too long,” New Mexico coach Darren Gauson told LetsRun. “And once he gets to the front and makes the move, we want him just to go hard and keep going. Sometimes he’ll get to the front and just settle a little bit…a sustained effort through to the finish, that’s the goal.”

The Challenger

Brian Musau, junior, Oklahoma State
Country: Kenya
2025 results: 5th Weis-Crockett Invitational, 1st Big 12s, 17th Midwest regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 8th in 2023, 5th in 2024
Track pbs: 12:59 5k. NCAA indoor and outdoor champ at 5k in 2025.

The case for him: A two-time NCAA 5k champion with a 12:59 pb and wicked kick has to be viewed as a serious threat to win the NCAA title. And Musau has shown he can run well in cross country, notching top-10 NCAA finishes in 2023 and 2024 and winning three straight titles in the deepest XC conference in the country, the Big 12.

The case against him: The 10k distance at NCAAs favors Samuel over Musau, and Samuel has beaten Musau at the last two NCAA XC meets.

Musau was also just 17th at the Midwest regional last week, but it’s probably not worth panicking about that. OK State still qualified comfortably and Musau was not under instructions to race all-out.

“I’ve learned not to be too concerned anytime Brian doesn’t look like what you might expect,” said OK State coach Dave Smith, who also said Musau confirmed to him after the race that everything was fine. “…There’s been times where he’s had days where you’re like, oh shoot, is that by design, by strategy, or is something going on? It used to panic me, but over time I’ve realized it doesn’t really matter: when the big day shows up, he is going to be ready.”

Musau will also be looking to end a drought for Kenyan men at NCAA XC. While many of this year’s conference and regional meets were dominated by Kenyans, only one of the last nine NCAA titles has been won by a Kenyan (Iowa State’s Edwin Kurgat in 2019). Quite a turnaround from the previous era, where Kenyan men won seven straight titles from 2009-15.

The American

Rocky Hansen, junior, Wake Forest
Country: USA
2025 results: 1st Panorama Farms Invite, 1st ACCs, 1st Southeast regional
Previous NCAA XC finishes: 100th in 2024
Track pbs: 13:07 5k. 3rd and 5th in NCAA indoor and outdoor 5k in 2025.

The case for him: Hansen might be the next great American distance star. After a high school career in which he ran a 3:58 mile, Hansen enrolled at Wake Forest in the fall of 2023 and immediately flashed his potential at the Nuttycombe Invitational. Just look at the names Hansen finished with in that race:

Now remember that Hansen was a true freshman in just his second collegiate race. And Hansen is young for his grade — he had turned 18 just one month before the race.

In 2025, Hansen has come into his own. He was 3rd in the NCAA indoor 5k, 5th in the outdoor 5k, then ran 13:07 in July to become the youngest American ever under 13:10 (19 years, 310 days). During the 2025 XC season, he has beaten Virginia Tech’s George Couttie by 26 seconds to win at Panorama Farms and Virginia’s Gary Martin by 20 seconds to win ACCs. Both Couttie and Martin finished in the top 15 at NCAA XC last year, so to blow them out like that means Hansen is seriously fit.

It’s also worth noting that after an 11-year drought, American men have won four of the last five NCAA XC titles — five for five if you count Charles Hicks, who is a US citizen but was representing Great Britain when he won in 2022. Hansen is the best bet for a sixth-straight American winner on Saturday.

The case against him: Hansen has been racking up huge margins of victory, but he has yet to face someone as good as Samuel or Musau. He also has a history of injuries, missing NCAA XC in 2023 and only finishing 100th last year. It’s also rare for a 20-year-old American to win NCAA XC; no one has done it since Dathan Ritzenhein in 2003.

Best of the rest

Chances are, one of the three men above is your champion on Saturday, but if not, here are three more guys who could challenge for the win.

• Solomon Kipchoge, Washington State: The 29-year-old Kipchoge entered the NCAA with a lot of hype last year at Texas Tech after running a personal best of 59:37 in the half marathon in 2023. But while Kipchoge ran well early in the season, he dropped out at NCAA XC, failed to make NCAAs on the track, and wound up transferring to Washington State over the summer. This fall, Kipchoge has a big win at the Gans Creek Classic in September and was 2nd behind Samuel at Nuttycombe before winning WCCs and the West regional.
• Kelvin Cheruiyot, Florida: Cheruiyot, a freshman from Kenya, was 16th in his first collegiate race at Gans Creek in September but since then has picked up three straight wins at Pre-Nats, SECs, and the South regional.
• Denis Kipngetich, Oklahoma State: Kipngetich was 4th in 2023 and 11th in 2024, which makes him the #3 returner behind Samuel and Musau. He was only 4th at Big 12s, but he won the Cowboy Jamboree in September and is coming off a win at the Midwest regional.

Talk about 2025 NCAA xc on our world-famous messageboard / fan forum:

• Wow: Jane Hedengren recently closed a version of the Michigan workout in 4:27 at altitude
  
• Will Jane Hedengren’s height eventually hold her back
• Roster limits are killing the sport!!! Oh wait, the Georgia men made it to NCAAs with just 6 men on the roster
• Ok State watch out. Jeremy Sudbury says Iowa St has 5 guys that could go sub-27:50 right now

Be sure to come back to LetsRun.com each and every day this week for more full coverage We’ll also be doing live video shoes from Columbia. Join the Supporters Club to catch them on demand as a podcast. Catch up with what we’ve already published below.

Jane Hedengren looks to make history as first freshman in 40 years to win NCAA women’s XC title BYU coach Diljeet Taylor says that after running 4:23 and 14:57 on the track last spring, Hedengren has reached an even higher level this fall. She also reveals Hedengren won’t be trying out for the USA’s World XC team in December.

NCAA XC men’s team preview: OK State looks for 2nd title in 3 years as Iowa State chases title amid controversy OK State is #1 after a magnificent performance at Big 12s. Can the Cowboys win a second title in three years? Or can Iowa State, which has dealt with multiple suspensions and an arrest in 2025, win its first title in 31 years? Does #3 New Mexico have a prayer? Plus we’ll tell you why no one else does. *
Ok State watch out. Darren Gauson says New Mexico has 5 guys that could go sub-27:50 right now
*NCAA Cross Country is RUINED – Teams like Florida Women, OSU and New Mexico ruin NCAA Cross Country