2019 NCAA Men’s Cross Country Championship Projected Qualifiers

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By LetsRun.com
November 15, 2019

All nine NCAA cross country regionals are in the books, which means that we can project the qualifiers for the 2019 NCAA Cross Country Championships, which will be held on November 23 in Terre Haute, Ind. We can do that thanks to the computer program of former Duke runner Bo Waggoner, which you can use for yourself here. Thanks also to The Stride Report’s Garrett Zatlin for his help compiling results.

These projections are unofficial (the NCAA will officially announce the field on Saturday, November 16), but we are confident the 31 teams listed below (along with the justification for why each team was selected) will be the ones dancing in Terre Haute next weekend. Men’s projections below; women’s projections can be found here.

Of note:

-#10 UCLA, running without top man Robert Brandt, only finished 8th in the West regional and failed to qualify
-#23 Oklahoma State, who finished fifth in the Midwest Regional after star Isai Rodriguez (4th at 2018 NCAAs) was only 66th, will miss NCAAs for the first time since 2002
-Other ranked teams to miss out include #25 Colorado State and #26 Eastern Kentucky
-Unranked teams who qualified: Furman, Arkansas, Florida State, Harvard, NC State

The UVA men en route to victory at the Southeast regional (Phil Bond photo)
*Check out our 2018 NCAA Cross Country Men’s Photo Gallery

Men’s projections

Automatic qualifiers
1 Purdue
2 Notre Dame
3 Villanova
4 Georgetown
5 Tulsa
6 Iowa St
7 NAU
8 Colorado
9 Harvard
10 Syracuse
11 Ole Miss
12 Middle Tennessee
13 Texas
14 Arkansas
15 Virginia
16 Va Tech
17 Portland
18 Stanford

At-large qualifiers
19 Oregon
20 BYU
21 Michigan
22 Indiana
23 Wisconsin
24 NC State
25 Utah St
26 Washington
27 Boise St
28 Furman
29 Iona
30 Alabama
31 Florida St

Logic

Automatically selected:

1: Purdue (#1 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA; (Joe Piane) NC State; (BIG 10) Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan; 

2: Notre Dame (#2 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Boise St, Southern Utah, Utah St; (Joe Piane) NC State; 

3: Villanova (#1 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (Bill Dellinger) Oregon, BYU, UCLA, Boise St, Furman; (Pre-Nats) BYU, Iona, Washington, Florida St; 

4: Georgetown (#2 Mid-Atlantic) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Boise St, Southern Utah, Utah St, Gonzaga, Princeton, Furman; (Joe Piane) NC State, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Eastern Kentucky, Florida St; 

5: Tulsa (#1 Midwest) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

6: Iowa St (#2 Midwest) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

7: NAU (#1 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

8: Colorado (#2 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nats) BYU; 

9: Harvard (#1 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Boise St, Southern Utah, Utah St, Gonzaga, Princeton, Furman, Air Force, Eastern Kentucky, Wyoming, Michigan St, Colorado St, New Mexico; (Battle in Beantown) Army, Stony Brook; (Ivy League) Penn; 

10: Syracuse (#2 Northeast) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Boise St, Southern Utah, Utah St, Gonzaga, Princeton, Furman, Air Force, Eastern Kentucky, Wyoming; 

11: Ole Miss (#1 South) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nats) BYU, Iona, Washington; 

12: Middle Tennessee (#2 South) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

13: Texas (#1 South Central) is selected, has losses to (BIG 12) Oklahoma St; (Bill Dellinger) Oregon, BYU, UCLA, Boise St, Furman; 

14: Arkansas (#2 South Central) is selected, has losses to (SEC) Alabama; (Pre-Nats) BYU, Iona, Washington, Florida St, Weber St, Iowa, Oklahoma St, Minnesota; (Chile Pepper) Oklahoma St; (Battle in Beantown) Army, Stony Brook, Washington, Navy, Dartmouth, Penn, Georgia Tech; 

15: Virginia (#1 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin, Oregon, Michigan, Boise St, Southern Utah, Utah St, Gonzaga, Princeton; 

16: Va Tech (#2 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nats) BYU, Iona, Washington, Florida St; 

17: Portland (#1 West) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin; (WCC) BYU; 

18: Stanford (#2 West) is selected, has losses to (PAC-12) Oregon; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  8  Indiana, BYU, Oregon

  7  Michigan

  5  Furman, Utah St, Washington

  4  Florida St, Iona, Princeton

  3  NC State

  1  Alabama

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, UMass Lowell, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (9), Wisconsin (8), Boise St (7), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Weber St (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Michigan St (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

  Breaking ties between Indiana, BYU, Oregon using head-to-head

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Indiana and BYU

  Oregon loses head-to-head vs Indiana, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

  BYU loses head-to-head vs Oregon, is not selected (Bill Dellinger)

Indiana not selected with push (gets in later on their own)

  Breaking ties between BYU, Oregon using head-to-head

  BYU loses head-to-head vs Oregon, is not selected (Bill Dellinger)

19: Oregon (#3 West) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  8  BYU

  7  Michigan, Boise St

  5  Furman, Utah St, Washington

  4  Florida St, Iona, Princeton

  3  NC State

  1  Alabama

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, UMass Lowell, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (10), Wisconsin (9), Indiana (9), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Weber St (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Michigan St (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

20: BYU (#3 Mountain) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  7  Michigan, Boise St

  5  Furman, Utah St, Washington

  4  Florida St, Iona, Princeton

  3  NC State

  1  Alabama, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, UMass Lowell, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (10), Wisconsin (9), Indiana (9), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Michigan St (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

  Breaking ties between Michigan, Boise St using head-to-head

  Boise St loses head-to-head vs Michigan, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

21: Michigan (#3 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Indiana, Wisconsin; (Joe Piane) NC State, Indiana; (BIG 10) Wisconsin, Indiana; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  12 Indiana

  11 Wisconsin

  7  Boise St

  5  Furman, Utah St, Washington

  4  NC State, Florida St, Iona, Princeton

  1  Alabama, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, UMass Lowell, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (11), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Michigan St (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

22: Indiana (#4 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA; (Joe Piane) NC State; (BIG 10) Wisconsin; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  12 Wisconsin

  7  Boise St

  5  NC State, Furman, Utah St, Washington

  4  Florida St, Iona, Princeton

  1  Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, UMass Lowell, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (12), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

23: Wisconsin (#5 Great Lakes) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA; (Joe Piane) NC State; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  7  Boise St

  6  NC State

  5  Furman, Utah St, Washington

  4  Florida St, Iona, Princeton

  1  Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (13), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

Boise St not selected with push (gets in later on their own)

24: NC State (#3 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (ACC) Wake Forest, Florida St, Duke; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Furman, Florida St, Utah St, Washington

  4  Iona, Princeton

  1  Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, Charlotte, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (13), Boise St (7), Southern Utah (5), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Wyoming (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Duke (1), Wake Forest (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

  Breaking ties between Furman, Florida St, Utah St, Washington using head-to-head

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Furman and Florida St

  Furman loses head-to-head vs Utah St, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Furman and Washington

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Florida St and Utah St

  Florida St loses head-to-head vs Washington, is not selected (Pre-Nats)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Utah St and Washington

  Breaking ties between Utah St, Washington using common opponents

  Washington loses common opponents vs Utah St, is not selected (win percentages: 0.6956521739130435, 0.5185185185185185) (common opponents: Cal Poly, Harvard, UMass Lowell, Penn, Stony Brook, Minnesota, Dartmouth, Montana St, Colorado, BYU, Weber St, Syracuse, Army, Gonzaga, Portland, Washington St, UCLA, Navy, Stanford, Oregon, Boise St)

25: Utah St (#4 Mountain) is selected, has losses to (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Boise St, Southern Utah; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Furman, Florida St, Washington

  4  Iona, Princeton

  2  Wyoming

  1  Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, Charlotte, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (14), Boise St (8), Southern Utah (6), Gonzaga (4), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Army (2), Air Force (2), Stony Brook (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Duke (1), Wake Forest (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

  Breaking ties between Furman, Florida St, Washington using head-to-head

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Furman and Florida St

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Furman and Washington

  Florida St loses head-to-head vs Washington, is not selected (Pre-Nats)

  Breaking ties between Furman, Washington using common opponents

  Furman loses common opponents vs Washington, is not selected (win percentages: 0.625, 0.5416666666666666) (common opponents: Cal Poly, Harvard, Gonzaga, Santa Clara, Campbell, Boise St, Louisville, North Carolina, Syracuse, Villanova, BYU, Portland, Liberty, Washington St, UCLA, Stanford, Idaho, Va Tech, Duke, Oregon)

26: Washington (#4 West) is selected, has losses to (Pre-Nats) Iona; (Battle in Beantown) Army, Stony Brook; (PAC-12) UCLA; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  8  Boise St

  5  Furman, Florida St, Iona

  4  Gonzaga, Princeton

  2  Wyoming

  1  Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, Charlotte, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (15), Southern Utah (6), Army (3), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Stony Brook (3), Air Force (2), Penn (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Duke (1), Wake Forest (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1), Colorado St (1)

27: Boise St (#5 West) is selected, has losses to (Bill Dellinger) UCLA; (Mountain West) Colorado St, Wyoming; (Nuttycombe) UCLA

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Furman, Florida St, Iona

  4  Gonzaga, Princeton

  3  Wyoming

  1  Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, Charlotte, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Washington St, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (17), Southern Utah (6), Army (3), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Stony Brook (3), Air Force (2), Penn (2), Colorado St (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Duke (1), Wake Forest (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1)

  Breaking ties between Furman, Florida St, Iona using head-to-head

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Furman and Florida St

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Furman and Iona

  Florida St loses head-to-head vs Iona, is not selected (Pre-Nats)

  Breaking ties between Furman, Iona using common opponents

  Iona loses common opponents vs Furman, is not selected (win percentages: 0.8181818181818182, 0.7272727272727273) (common opponents: Syracuse, Harvard, Liberty, BYU, Louisville, Villanova, Campbell, Columbia, Va Tech, Duke, North Carolina)

28: Furman (#4 Southeast) is selected, has losses to (Bill Dellinger) UCLA; (Nuttycombe) UCLA, Southern Utah, Gonzaga, Princeton; 

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Florida St, Iona, Gonzaga, Princeton

  3  Wyoming

  1  Duke, Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, Charlotte, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Washington St, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (19), Southern Utah (7), Army (3), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Stony Brook (3), Air Force (2), Penn (2), Colorado St (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Wake Forest (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1)

  Breaking ties between Florida St, Iona, Gonzaga, Princeton using head-to-head

  Florida St loses head-to-head vs Iona, is not selected (Pre-Nats)

  Gonzaga loses head-to-head vs Florida St, is not selected (Joe Piane)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Florida St and Princeton

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Iona and Gonzaga

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Iona and Princeton

  Princeton loses head-to-head vs Gonzaga, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

29: Iona (#3 Northeast) is selected, has no losses to teams remaining

Teams under consideration by points:

  5  Florida St, Gonzaga, Princeton

  3  Stony Brook, Wyoming

  1  Duke, Alabama, Michigan St, Weber St

  0  Kansas, South Dakota St, Charlotte, UMass Lowell, Butler, Texas A&M, Lamar, Washington St, Temple

  Others with points: UCLA (19), Southern Utah (7), Army (3), Oklahoma St (3), Eastern Kentucky (3), Air Force (2), Penn (2), Colorado St (2), New Mexico (1), Iowa (1), Georgia Tech (1), Wake Forest (1), Navy (1), Minnesota (1), Dartmouth (1)

  Breaking ties between Florida St, Gonzaga, Princeton using head-to-head

  Gonzaga loses head-to-head vs Florida St, is not selected (Joe Piane)

  No head-to-head tiebreaker for Florida St and Princeton

  Princeton loses head-to-head vs Gonzaga, is not selected (Nuttycombe)

30: Alabama (#3 South) is selected, gives no points (pushed in)

31: Florida St (#4 South) is selected, has losses to (ACC) Wake Forest; (Joe Piane) Eastern Kentucky; 

Note: We are aware that Washington ran a B team at the Battle in Beantown and thus should not have given any points at that meet, but at the moment, we cannot update the program to reflect that fact. This does not impact the 31 qualifiers.

Discuss NCAA regionals on the LetsRun messageboard:

MB: Official 2019 NCAA D1 XC/Road Race Regional Discussion Thread
MB: Amazing: The Vaporfly Controversy Has Come To Cross Country – Vaporfly Wearing Teams Stun Fields at Northeast Regional


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