Here is the thread from 2 weeks ago that I'm referencing in the title. The thread below has been locked to new posts so post here.
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9913026Here is the thread from 2 weeks ago that I'm referencing in the title. The thread below has been locked to new posts so post here.
https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9913026Thanks!
Everyone may already know how I feel, but sometimes the disinformation from Moscow needs to be rectified.
Russia's handling of SARS-CoV-2 disease so far reminds me of its handling of HIV disease.
https://www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-around-world/eastern-europe-central-asia/russia
Bet you’re stoked all these threads are aging like the worlds finest wine.
Putin has everything but friends; good sense; and a long life expectancy lol.
Yeah, about that... wrote:
Russia's handling of SARS-CoV-2 disease so far reminds me of its handling of HIV disease.
https://www.avert.org/professionals/hiv-around-world/eastern-europe-central-asia/russiahttps://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/02/13/google-searches-for-hiv-tests-soar-by-5000-after-russian-bloggers-doc-a69275
Similar to most poorer populations in this region. Lack of support. It seems sex workers, injection drug users and MSM all do so in abusive underground environments.
Not that I think these industries deserve much esteem, just that the health adds up better by supporting them versus marginalizing and abusing them. The uncivilized savagery you find in underdeveloped places is one of the worst ways to fight these problems.
jesseriley wrote:
Thanks!
Everyone may already know how I feel, but sometimes the disinformation from Moscow needs to be rectified.
Yes, we know you miss Stalin. And you are loving the fascism spreading across the U.S. under the guise of protecting EVERY sacred life (well, except those committing suicide under the pressure of losing their livelihoods and of course preborn babies(where killing one is a sick badge of honor)).
Ha ha, I’m just the messenger. If russia commits national suicide due to its dependency on oil, dictatorship, and stupid trolls, well, I can only cheer from USA & hope it’s replaced by a country that’s actually working for its own beleaguered people.
replying to rojo, I guess.
I didn't read the original thread you linked. In any event. Russia does seem to be in the earlier stages of spread than nearly everywhere else (with a few exceptions), and there's potential fr them to see quite a bit more growth. That said, I'm currently projecting them to end up reporting something like 2000 to 5000 fatalities by the end of the first wave (say end-May for them), which would put them at ~ 10 to 30 fatalities per million, well below what the US will experience (closer to 200 per million by the time all is said and done). Whether this difference is real, or a product of misinformation, is anybody's guess...
How dare you!
Show some compassion instead of gloating over deaths in other countries and cultures.
The original thread was too obvious & embarrassing to the disinformation trolls who started it, it had to go.
Maybe you shouldn't have allowed trolls To full your board with denialism and mis information in thé first place.
Russia, hat in hand, will accept ventilators from USA.
Ha ! Never.
Life has no value in Russia.
#1 in Europe, Numero uno, in homicide rate.
This post was removed.
letsvirtualrun.com
Whether you like it or not.
Fair enough, but homicides & regicides aren’t mutually exclusive. Wonder whose hat size fits the next crown lol.
The initial response in Russia was very good. They shut their border with China very early and had a very effective program of testing and tracing. Unfortunately, they resisted lockdown measures when community spread became apparent. So, all they got for their efforts was to delay the spread for a few weeks compared to the US and Europe. This should serve as an important warning to other countries that are looking to relax their lockdowns. You need a very low level of infection and very aggressive testing and tracing like S. Korea to be able to ease restrictions without having the virus run rampant again.
interested reader wrote:
replying to rojo, I guess.
I didn't read the original thread you linked. In any event. Russia does seem to be in the earlier stages of spread than nearly everywhere else (with a few exceptions), and there's potential fr them to see quite a bit more growth. That said, I'm currently projecting them to end up reporting something like 2000 to 5000 fatalities by the end of the first wave (say end-May for them), which would put them at ~ 10 to 30 fatalities per million, well below what the US will experience (closer to 200 per million by the time all is said and done). Whether this difference is real, or a product of misinformation, is anybody's guess...
I'm curious what your model looks like. Nearly every model I've seen is grossly underestimating the number of deaths based on the initial success of China and South Korea in slowing/stopping the spread. The run out and overall infection rates in Italy and Spain seem to point towards much higher numbers of 1-2 deaths per 1000 in infected cities with little reliable rural data. It also looks like it will stretch well into June where the IHME models show drastic drops that don't appear to be happening in any European cities thus far.
To all amateur 'modelers': Do you have degrees in virology, epidemiology, and nursing? Knowledge of supply chains for PPE? Current ability to do contact tracing? Any predictions for possible course of this pandemic, need to rely on input from many qualified people. And they still must be made with many assumptions about the virus and human behavior and many other things.
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
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