Johns Hopkins now predicts 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths

Yeah, these people are a little silly. "Social distancing is a joke", "We need tougher lockdowns", blah blah blah ... except when there's good news, then "Hooray! Social Distancing does it again!" I'm bad with statistics and the Null Hypothesis and all that. But unless I am mistaken the objective truth is that epidemics tend to follow an epidemiological curve (hence the name), irrespective of whether or not people change their behavior, and we haven't seen anything firmly establishing causation between lockdown and mitigation. So in the absence of casual evidence I don't see a logical reason to give undue credit where it doesn't belong. Obviously zillions of people are going to say "We did it!" and they'll never be convinced otherwise, and I guess that's ok.

Facts Matter? wrote:

energeticlotuseater wrote:

Johns Hopkins now predicts 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths

Shocking! ?

Who could have predicted such a turn of events?

realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

And honestly, how many of these Corona Virus deaths are really old age or Corona Virus assisting already unhealthy persons to a slightly faster demise.

You realize that means the corona virus is killing them, don't you?

No, it's not black or white like that. However, the same could be said for flu, pneumonia etc.

Worldwide coronavirus death toll (Johns Hopkins 09APR2020 1215 EDT): 89,931

Days since first coronavirus death in Wuhan (09JAN2020): 92

Normal projected total worldwide deaths since day of first coronavirus death: 15,132,240

Unadjusted percentage increase in deaths above normal: 0.5943%

An adjustment would allow for people who died of coronavirus who would have died for non-coronavirus reasons during the period since the first coronavirus death.

Well...... wrote:

realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:

You realize that means the corona virus is killing them, don't you?

No, it's not black or white like that. However, the same could be said for flu, pneumonia etc.

OK. Well, it is entirely consistent with how medicine is practiced and how statistics are collected for every other disease.

Of course there can be more than one contributory factor to a death. That is not a controversial statement. Sorry we cannot resolve all ambiguities in life.

realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:

Well...... wrote:

No, it's not black or white like that. However, the same could be said for flu, pneumonia etc.

OK. Well, it is entirely consistent with how medicine is practiced and how statistics are collected for every other disease.

Of course there can be more than one contributory factor to a death. That is not a controversial statement. Sorry we cannot resolve all ambiguities in life.

That’s the point though. Dr. Birx admitted we are counting everyone who dies with COVID-19 as a death directly caused by COVID-19. This will obviously inflate the COVID-19 death count. Can we solve all these ambiguities? Probably not without a lot more time & work but I think that this fact is worth looking at when you see some of these death counts.

energeticlotuseater wrote:

realism smacks you in the mouth wrote:

OK. Well, it is entirely consistent with how medicine is practiced and how statistics are collected for every other disease.

Of course there can be more than one contributory factor to a death. That is not a controversial statement. Sorry we cannot resolve all ambiguities in life.

That’s the point though. Dr. Birx admitted we are counting everyone who dies with COVID-19 as a death directly caused by COVID-19. This will obviously inflate the COVID-19 death count. Can we solve all these ambiguities? Probably not without a lot more time & work but I think that this fact is worth looking at when you see some of these death counts.

The stupid thing about this point is that somehow people are posting it as some sort of remarkable insight or gotcha that negates the fact that Covid is contributing to a bunch of deaths. It is as though people think that doctors, public health officials, and epidemiologists are not aware that deaths can have more than one cause.

You can say the exact same thing about other causes of death. It doesn't prevent the collection of statistics and public health decision making in any other case.

It is particularly stupid when people point this out when they are comparing deaths to the flu since these are compiled exactly the same way.

These deaths cannot be separated, no matter how much time and work is put into it, not because of some interest in inflating death totals, but because the concurrent health issues that exist within the same body cannot be untangled from each other.

But you keep posting the talking point of dozens or hundreds of right wing websites and claiming that you have unique insight as an independent thinker, boos.

No they aren't compiled in the same way, that's one of the points.

For example, in the UK, Coronavirus is a notifiable disease eg

You will notice influenza and pneumonia aren't on there. So any CV case MUST be notified to the authorities (even if not the primary cause), but that's not the case for flu/pn, so those cases are far higher.

You can apply the most stringent cause of death test and the statistics in the US are still appalling.

South Korea, Population 51 mil, 204 deaths.

Japan, Population 126 million, 94 deaths.

Canada, Population 38 mil, 503 deaths.

Australia and New Zealand, Population 30 mil, 52 deaths.

Germany, Population 83 million, 2,400 deaths

328 million people, 3254 Deaths.

US, 327 million, 16,000 deaths and currently on pace to add @2,000 deaths a day for the foreseeable future. Spout on about what some blogger wrote about all day long. But the hard facts are that the US response to the corona virus is the worst in the world (but Brazil may catch up with Bolsinaro has his way) and there is no end in sight as testing and quarantine measures are inadequate and millions will ignore lockdowns to gather for Easter, causing the outbreak to worsen.

The alt right corona virus deniers are purveyors of bat sh@t crazy propaganda that would make Goebbels say "wow, that's gangsta". A conservative movement that once went nuts when Terry Schiavo was taken off life support suddenly sees no value in the elderly and people with health conditions who are dying of the virus. A president that promised "America First" and spent three years screaming about how the US is being invaded by poor immigrants could not protect the country from an actual threat.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

no doubt. imagine if china sympathizer biden was in there? holy smokes.

Renato Corona wrote:

I'm bad with statistics and the Null Hypothesis and all that.

You don't say.

But unless I am mistaken the objective truth is that epidemics tend to follow an epidemiological curve (hence the name), irrespective of whether or not people change their behavior, and we haven't seen anything firmly establishing causation between lockdown and mitigation. So in the absence of casual evidence I don't see a logical reason to give undue credit where it doesn't belong.

This is not correct. At this point we have been able to watch the progress of coronavirus in China, Korea, Taiwan, and other countries, and differences in behavior have made a huge difference in what the curve looks like in each one. In the U.S., we can see the effects of starting social distancing start to show up around 10 days later in the number of new cases.

No they aren't compiled in the same way, that's one of the points.

You will notice influenza and pneumonia aren't on there. So any CV case MUST be notified to the authorities (even if not the primary cause), but that's not the case for flu/pn, so those cases are far higher.[/quote]

The method and speed with which the deaths are being reported are different.

The attribution criteria is not. This is the exact same mix of confirmed laboratory results and clinical judgement that is present in all reporting.

At 2,000 deaths per day now, how am I saying, just wait for it it will be bad? It is bad now and I have been predicting this on the basis of the numbers for weeks, so where is the recognition that this is bad? Just because you want Trump to be re-elected does not mean that you should be denying what is actually happening. Think about where this was just three weeks ago. We had 206 deaths total as of March 19. The toll is now 80 times higher (almost 1700 today already).

Know too that just as flu deaths every year sneak up on us until they go back after the end of flu season and do a more rigorous count and many more appear, so too with Coronavirus, as many died with no testing, including in New York where a lot aren't even coming into the hospitals.

Just give me good reasons as to why the death toll is not going to continue to rise rapidly when there are four times as many people with positive cases now as there were two weeks ago and it takes time from positive test to death.

Most initial estimates were based on 50% compliance with social distancing. There has been much higher compliance than was expected, and so there will be much fewer deaths than expected.

That's good news, but it doesn't mean the threat was overblown. It just means that the precautions we took were effective.

Lofty Goals wrote:

Most initial estimates were based on 50% compliance with social distancing. There has been much higher compliance than was expected, and so there will be much fewer deaths than expected.

That's good news, but it doesn't mean the threat was overblown. It just means that the precautions we took were effective.

So basically you’re saying there isn’t anyway for those initial estimates to be incorrect. If a million people die then you can say people didn’t follow social distancing measures prescribed. If only 20,000 people died then the social distancing measures that were prescribed worked.

Could it be possible that the COVID-19 virus just isn’t as deadly and/or contagious as the media and government hyped it to be?

Read the fine print wrote:

The difference is that we don’t have a viable treatment, vaccine, or antibody test with Covid-19 whereas we do with the flu.

....

What I wonder is, are the trolls really so dumb that they need this explained to them, after most of the whole world has known it for months, or do they just not care about the truth (like the demented turnip in DC)?

I have some observations about the graph you posted. I notice that the Covid data is not being presented or compared in the same way that the rest of the cause of deaths are compared or presented. I would think that in order for this model to be correct the exact numbers of death for each cause each day would need to be graphed. Instead it appears they are just all the yearly daily average graphed unless the exact same number of people died every single day from every single cause of death except the virus.

Very curious on what the real time numbers were on some of those other days for the other causes. .

That's pretty funny coming from a right-wing bourgeoisie liberal like yourself Roy.

You probably can;t imagine a world outside of your careerist, managerial class box. There are countless lefties (actual ones Roy- the ones under your bed) who use scientific material analysis to debunk what we are seeing. That you assert that this is unique to the alt-right shows you don't get around very much.

For you anyone who has the wherewithal to understand how interlocking corporations dictate policy direction is just too far out there. Face it- you're still reading the NY Times, WaPo and watching CNN and believe yourself to be informed.

Well who knew when "it happened here" it would come looking like liberal democracy and sponsored by liberal fascists. I'll tell you who knew Roy, thousands of us who have been watching and documenting you liberal hypocrites as you support one state sponsored repression after the next.

Oh and BTW Roy you do know who funds Flourish- look at your little chart there- everyone's got a chart now don't they Roy- and think about who funded that chart. Is that too "conspiratorial" for you also Roy? I'm guessing you have no idea about this at all- you truly are clueless- and worse you think you're informed citizen.

If you can't find it for yourself I'll give the whole breakdown on who funds Flourish. But you don't want someone else doing your homework- no good lawyer would do such a thing would they?

Dude, you are out there. Get help.

Right now, the vast majority of the cases and death toll are in two states, NY and NJ, but there is a long list of states where death toll today was at least 10% of the total for the state, and a significant list of states where the case increase was at least 10% of the total. Case increases are dependent on the spread of infection but also the testing availability.

I put Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Mississippi, New York (7067 deaths total/799 today), New Jersey (1700/193), Michigan (1076/117), New Mexico, Massachusetts (503/70), Pennsylvania (360/46), Texas (222/27), Maryland (138/14), Arizona, and Virginia in the category of 10% increases today in cases and deaths. I might have a state in there that should be listed in the other camp.

I put a lot of other states in the camp of 10% death toll increases today:

ND, Hawaii, West Virginia, Maine, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Kansas, Arkansas, Delaware, Minnesota, Idaho (close to 10% on cases too), DC, Nevada, Georgia (412/42), CT, FL (371/48), Illinois (528/66), Indiana (245/42, one of the bigger % increases), Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina.

So, those states are all on pace to double in deaths every 7 days.