Johns Hopkins now predicts 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths

We are running at 2,000 deaths per day now and that will grow further. How are we going to stop at 60,000 when we have caseloads growing significantly in many states and the death rate growth will follow? Just a 5% growth rate for 45 days would put us at 133,000. How do we get down much lower than that when right now we're averaging about 16% growth per day? More than half of the deaths in the U.S. are from two states right now. What happens as the massive overall measured case growth in the country leads to the lagging deaths? We've had almost 15,000 deaths mainly from a much smaller pool of fewer than 100,000 confirmed cases. March 27 we had 104,000 confirmed cases. Most of the deaths are from people who tested positive prior to March 27, I am sure. So, with the additional 335,000 cases since then, doesn't it stand to reason that we get a much higher death toll? That alone would get you approximately 58,000 deaths if you assumed that 100,000 to 14,000 rate of known cases to deaths over time. But it is not just stopping now. I see no way that it is not over 100,000.

ICU doctor. wrote:

Bad Wigins wrote:

but... but... it was the fascism - I mean, the social distancing, or it would have been MILLIONS

Lets have a round of applause for the only smart thing Bad Wigins has ever posted on Letsrun.

Can't counter-mock your way out of it. You were wrong, wrong, wrong. I was right, right, right. Prepare your whatabouts because you're gonna be miserable for the next few weeks.

From what I understand from the doctors that deal with the people that are getting tested, only those that come in to be tested that have breathing issues are in the risk group. Those that test positive with only a fever, body aches, or coughs are recovering at 99.9% - this is what should be reported and more emphasis on how to live virus free without panicking or changing your lifestyle too dramatically.

What will it be here, now? wrote:

Social distancing is working. Instead of 30 scenes like Milan or NYC, across the US and death rates approaching what are occurring in Italy and Spain, projections and actual numbers appear to be leveling off.

What would it take in total numbers in the US for you deniers to stop creating every other thread as aggrieved gadflies? Say between now and August, per these latest projections.

100,000?

250,000?

670,000? (akin to the 1918 flu epidemic)

or 2 million? (proportionally similar to the 1918 flu epidemic)

What would it take for you mind-controlled panic-stricken scared rabbits to realize that we're being duped? The test currently used for COVID-19 is unreliable! ?

She loves her scarves too. Fashionable, smart, and powerful. :)

In all seriousness, Dr. Birx is credentialed and has military experience as well. I trust her data and she seems to be calm and in control (like Dr. Fauci).

"We should outlaw all fast food. "

In some European countries they have laws against restaurants frying food in 100% animal fats or laws that mandate the maximum levels of sugar in prepared foods.

"in all seriousness, Dr. Birx is credentialed and has military experience as well. I trust her data and she seems to be calm and in control"

Someone needs to tell her to stop using the term "granular data". Most people have no idea what that means. Is it like granular sugar? Sort of. In that you can see each grain as opposed to powdered sugar. But granular data really means data at it's most detailed.

The changing models are based off of current data, which is influenced by the steps we’ve taken so far. Essentially, social distancing is working! It sucks, but it is actually making a different.

energeticlotuseater wrote:

Will future governments be able to use this same “projection tactic “ for future potential life saving national police actions? Remember many experts say global warming will kill hundreds of thousands and displace millions. Why not impose a national lockdowns in order to save potentially millions from global warming if we did it to save potential hundreds of thousands from COVID-19?

This is the IHME prediction. They are largely funded by Bill Gates who has a book coming out "How to Avoid a Climate Disaster" There are different ways to model this that are more sophisticated, so where are those and why aren't they being used? I could be looking in the wrong place.

Why did the Seattle Flu Study stop testing? Are there any answers for this? Funded by the same guy who wants us to wait for a vaccine. This seemed really weird.

The first patient was given an experimental antiviral, but somehow using antivirals is unproven now. Drugs that China used and told us about. Were the number fake, or did that translate to the low number of deaths. Why don't we (the general public) have more info about this?

Here is some about the flu study.

The data is from John Hopkins which is partly funded by Michael Bloomberg. Seems weird New York was somewhat unprepared. You might recall he recently ran for president and made some claims about how climate change cannot wait for the election cycle.

Jay Inslee also ran for president. He was the greenest candidate we had. Hmmmm.

Makes you wonder if there is something too it. They could at least use a more predictive model and put the doubt to rest. You could build a model that shows what if most people never had symptoms, then what do things look like going forward. What if it has been here since Nov, etc. Fauci seems like he reads the news from a month ago all the time.

?

I admire your sticktoitiveness. Everyone else either 1) knew this was massively over-hyped OR 2) are pivoting to how successful eliminating civil rights has been OR 3) realize that they've BEEN HAD.

You're still on the "just wait" bandwagon?

Facts Matter? wrote:

energeticlotuseater wrote:

Johns Hopkins now predicts 60,000 American COVID-19 deaths

Shocking! ?

Who could have predicted such a turn of events?

Best COVID-19 post yet!

well thats down from 2.1 million, then 150,000, then 100,000 then, 80,000.....

by comparison 80,000 died of the FLU 2 years ago.

Bad Wigins wrote:

ICU doctor. wrote:

Lets have a round of applause for the only smart thing Bad Wigins has ever posted on Letsrun.

Can't counter-mock your way out of it. You were wrong, wrong, wrong. I was right, right, right. Prepare your whatabouts because you're gonna be miserable for the next few weeks.

I wasn't mocking you - I was actually sincere. It is unfortunate that you can't see that.

The fear mongering crowd will throw out the numbers should be much higher because apparently we are all walking around with the virus already but show no symptoms. Which ironically defeats their purpose of scaring you home because if so many already have it and aren't showing any illness and never do. Think about that for a bit.

QFE

You’re the guy that twisted and misrepresented Franklin’s quote. You have no credibility.

Tower Porklets wrote:

Mate, it's like two or three 9/11s a week.

That's the death count, and that's *with* social distancing.

If you just carried on focusing on the "economy" , itd be a 9/11 every day if not worse.

Kapow. Another plane. Boom. Another plane.

Once we have anti body testing it would not be surprising to see that way, way more people had the virus than thought. The theory that social distancing prevented a mass spread is on somewhat shaky ground.

And honestly, how many of these Corona Virus deaths are really old age or Corona Virus assisting already unhealthy persons to a slightly faster demise. I hope we're not going through this exercise to prevent the deaths of people who are on deaths doorstep as is.

Primo Numero Uno wrote:

And honestly, how many of these Corona Virus deaths are really old age or Corona Virus assisting already unhealthy persons to a slightly faster demise. I hope we're not going through this exercise to prevent the deaths of people who are on deaths doorstep as is.

97% of New York Coronavirus deaths are associated with a pre-existing health condition

Source:

It’s hard to correctly identify exactly how the virus killed the person. Did the virus weaken their immune system to the point that the underlying condition could take them out? Or did the underlying condition allow the virus to overwhelm the person? What counts as the virus killing them as opposed to the virus assisting in their demise?