The CDC released their latest flu numbers - 1,000 more died March 7 - March 14 - When will you learn?

Vancomycin wrote:

LRC should have a "solve this exponential time series equation" prompt before posting on COVID thread.

It is truly incredibly these idiots simply cannot grasp the concept of exponential growth. Particularly by now that the trend is well established all over the world and in the US too.

But anyway, I'll bump this thread when the US hits 20k deaths so that we can talk about the flu again.

Stupidity kills wrote:

Vancomycin wrote:

LRC should have a "solve this exponential time series equation" prompt before posting on COVID thread.

It is truly incredibly these idiots simply cannot grasp the concept of exponential growth. Particularly by now that the trend is well established all over the world and in the US too.

But anyway, I'll bump this thread when the US hits 20k deaths so that we can talk about the flu again.

It's truly incredible that idiots like you cannot grasp the concept of "greater than" or "less than."

Should US COVID-19 deaths reach 20,000, US Flu deaths will will likely be at 40,000.

Therefore:

A)The flu kills more people

B) No one panics while the flu is killing people

When one of those is not true, please feel free to come back and let me have it.

I even registered the name so there will be no hiding. You should do the same.

?️Facts Matter wrote:

Stupidity kills wrote:

It is truly incredibly these idiots simply cannot grasp the concept of exponential growth. Particularly by now that the trend is well established all over the world and in the US too.

But anyway, I'll bump this thread when the US hits 20k deaths so that we can talk about the flu again.

It's truly incredible that idiots like you cannot grasp the concept of "greater than" or "less than."

Should US COVID-19 deaths reach 20,000, US Flu deaths will will likely be at 40,000.

Therefore:

A)The flu kills more people

B) No one panics while the flu is killing people

When one of those is not true, please feel free to come back and let me have it.

I even registered the name so there will be no hiding. You should do the same.

So infectious disease experts are wrong then? You, random Letsrun posrer, are right?

Alan

?️Facts Matter wrote:

Stupidity kills wrote:

It is truly incredibly these idiots simply cannot grasp the concept of exponential growth. Particularly by now that the trend is well established all over the world and in the US too.

But anyway, I'll bump this thread when the US hits 20k deaths so that we can talk about the flu again.

It's truly incredible that idiots like you cannot grasp the concept of "greater than" or "less than."

Should US COVID-19 deaths reach 20,000, US Flu deaths will will likely be at 40,000.

Therefore:

A)The flu kills more people

B) No one panics while the flu is killing people

When one of those is not true, please feel free to come back and let me have it.

I even registered the name so there will be no hiding. You should do the same.

The flu doesn’t overwhelm the healthcare system.

This will.

No immunity. No vaccine. It is a novel virus and spreads easily.

Runningart2004 wrote:

?️Facts Matter wrote:

It's truly incredible that idiots like you cannot grasp the concept of "greater than" or "less than."

Should US COVID-19 deaths reach 20,000, US Flu deaths will will likely be at 40,000.

Therefore:

When one of those is not true, please feel free to come back and let me have it.

I even registered the name so there will be no hiding. You should do the same.

So infectious disease experts are wrong then? You, random Letsrun posrer, are right?

Alan

Geez when have those experts ever been wrong before?

Try some history. In 1997 we were told that bird flu could kill millions worldwide. Thankfully, it did not. In 1999 European Union scientists warned that BSE “could kill 500,000 people”. In total, 177 Britons died of vCJD. The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported as having “a 25% chance of killings tens of millions” and being “worse than Aids”. In 2006, another bout of bird flu was declared “the first pandemic of the 21st century”, the scares in 2003, 2004 and 2005 having failed to meet their body counts.

Then, in 2009, pigs replaced birds. The BBC announced that swine flu “could really explode”. The chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, declared that “65,000 could die”. He spent £560m on a Tamiflu and Relenza stockpile, which soon deteriorated. The Council of Europe’s health committee chairman described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as “one of the great medical scandals of the century.”

Should our public life really be conducted on a worst-case scenario?

How much greater will the number of documented deaths in the US from Coronavirus than the number of flu deaths have to be for you to admit you were wrong?

uh ohz wrote:

How much greater will the number of documented deaths in the US from Coronavirus than the number of flu deaths have to be for you to admit you were wrong?

Valid question.

The 2017/2018 flu season killed 61,000 people according to the CDC. No one panicked over those 61,000 deaths. Since I don't know what they would have done if 61,001 people died, let's go with that number. If 61,001 people in the US die from COVID-19 in a 6 month span, I won't have any factual basis to compare what the public reaction would or should be.

61,001 FTW.

P.S. This assume that the current flu season does not surpass 61,001 deaths, should that happen, and assuming no one panics about it, then whatever that number of deaths is, will be the number that will convince me that I was wrong.

But I'm not wrong! ?

trumpedthevirus wrote:

Trump states he wants everything back to normal by Easter. The hospitals will be overwhelmed and the number of deaths will rise to numbers that no one will want to believe. Imagine a little country like Italy having an average 500-600 deaths per day for the past 10 days.

There will be 100,000 cases by Sunday in the USA and it isn't going to be pretty.

Stay safe and hopefully you have your facts straight.

Okay...Mr. Fearmonger; I've copied this in my clipboard and will see by this Sunday, March 29.

real info wrote:

One days worth of data? You're a lying sack of crap. No one is that stupid unless they're being paid to be that stupid.

We have 3 months worth of data now, and what we see is the number of deaths rising EXPONENTIALLY. Just like we've seen in other countries around the world. Do we see exponential growth in flue deaths? No, not in the least.

Spreading disinformation that kills people during a national emergency is an act of treason.

Curious: What specific evidence do you that suggests the poster is committing treason?

Definition of Treason:

"In law, treason is criminal disloyalty, typically to the state. It is a crime that covers some of the more extreme acts against one's nation or sovereign. This usually includes things such as participating in a war against one's native country, attempting to overthrow its government, spying on its military, its diplomats, or its secret services for a hostile and foreign power, or attempting to kill its head of state. A person who commits treason is known in law as a traitor.[1]"

Presenting statistics on the seasonal flu vs coronavirus doesn't sound it meets any of this criteria. Lol.

trumpedthevirus wrote:

Trump states he wants everything back to normal by Easter. The hospitals will be overwhelmed and the number of deaths will rise to numbers that no one will want to believe. Imagine a little country like Italy having an average 500-600 deaths per day for the past 10 days.

There will be 100,000 cases by Sunday in the USA and it isn't going to be pretty.

Stay safe and hopefully you have your facts straight.

Are you saying there are going to be 100,000 deaths from COVID-19 in the US by this Sunday?

You may also want to read the report from the Italian Health Agency which states about 88% of deaths currently attributed to COVID are mis-attributed. But please answer that first question.

Report shows up to 88% of Italy’s alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed

The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus […] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,”

- Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health

Report in English:

You drooling nitwit, he said 100,000 cases. And that's all but assured. We're at 55,000 now, there were 11,000 new cases today, so even if by some miracle we don't have an increase, we'll easily get to 100,000 cases by Sunday.

And no it doesn't make any sense to eliminate 88% of the Italian deaths because people have other health issues. What killed them was Coronavirus. Do you have parents? Grandparents? Nearly everyone past middle age has health issues: obesity, diabetes, heart problems, cholesterol.

Please, just stop posting.

Nope, I made the case (reasonably well buttressed) that the true CFR rate is significantly lower. You chose to use grade school insults instead of trying to rebut something that you know you can't. Thanks for confirming the claim I put forth.

Harambe wrote:

I'm not the one who made a claim about CFRs.

I'm trying to prevent people with limited math skills from polluting these threads. Please respect my wishes and stop posting.

Next semester they'll teach you about variable growth rates and concavity. You could prepare now by studying up on how increased immunity in a population slows rapid initial growth.

To save you from having to argue with me the rest of your life to avoid realizing it's true, here's an infectious disease specialist who says the same. And agrees with me that closing the schools was a bad idea. That was like a month ago - if we'd let all the kids get the virus, half the population would now be immune, R would be below 1 and the problem would solve itself.

Next semester they'll teach you about variable growth rates and concavity. You could prepare now by studying up on how increased immunity in a population slows rapid initial growth.

To save you from having to argue with me the rest of your life to avoid admitting this to yourself, here's an infectious disease specialist who says the same. And agrees with me that closing the schools was a bad idea. That was like a month ago - if we'd let all the kids get the virus, half the population would now be immune, R would be below 1 and the problem would solve itself.

Note also how he says large-scale testing is a bad and wasteful idea.

Amazing the depths you guys dig to find ONE person who agrees with you.

Anyway more numbers:

Lombardy is approaching 0.1% total fatality for the region. Either you assume 1) everyone has been infected in the whole state 2) the mortality is > 0.1%

i.e. it’s worse than the usual flu and > 10X worse than the swine flu you guys won’t stop referencing.

How much worse? We will see.

I look forward to more continuous and ever more creative backtracking from the two of you. It’s always entertaining during these difficult times.

100,000 cases. Not to be a scare monger but here is an interesting video and confirms what an emergency doctor in the states has relayed to us.

I coach a few doctors here in Australia and the forecast is not good for any country on the planet. Sorry.

https://www.wtae.com/article/doctor-inside-lung-coronavirus-patient/31915109?fbclid=IwAR1gcvIAkLPXijJd-JMtHyeTzLcjDtfajy4zUb-EQ8su_IDltDaCAbaEuBw

225 deaths yesterday in the U.S.

So it is currently more deadly than flu.

Notice how bad wigins and facts matter never make any projections? Ask them to predict how many cases and how many deaths in a week from now. You won't get a straight answer. Just more talk about how the flu has more casualties so far.

Actually now that I think about it I seem to remember Wigins predicting US cases to stay under, what was it, 6000? just over 1/10th of what we have today and 1/100th of where we are heading.

Found it - Wigins predicted the US to top out at 2600 cases. We are now at 50,000+ confirmed and climbing 20% per day. I also saw on another thread that he is predicting New York deaths will eventually top out at 1125 deaths. A pretty big move of the goal posts, but they'll blow past that in a week or so.

A comment from England:

England (so excluding other UK regions) death statistics for 2017 focusing on over 75s were published last October. They showed the following:

(In 2017) 230,428 people in total died in hospitals in England, that is 631 people per day (average) of which 427 were over 75 years old

For most people aged 75 and over who died in hospital their underlying cause of death was not the same as the primary diagnosis at the point of admission to hospital in the hospital in which they died. Pneumonia and [other] infections were recorded as the primary reason for admission in a large proportion of hospital admissions that ended in death. Details are in the following paragraph:

Based on figure 3 in the linked report, the total number of people 75 and over who died in 2017 with pneumonia as the primary reason for admission was about 26,000; the equivalent total number for [other] infections was about 18,000. That is a combined total of 44,000 hospital deaths equating to 121 deaths per day. Out of this number an approx total of 10,000 had pneumonia and infections as the underlying cause of death, equating to approx 27 deaths per day. So roughly 100 people over 75 died every day on average in 2017 (in England alone) from diseases other than pneumonia or {other] infections but had been admitted to hospital with pneumonia or [other] infection diagnosed on admittance.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/older-people-who-died-in-hospital-england-2017/older-people-who-died-in-hospital-england-2017