The S&P will certainly fall below 2,000 and possibly below 1,500. Although the virus triggered the selloff, it's compounded by the fact that the market was wildly overvalued (higher than 1929 and 1999). With that in mind, I went into this 100% in cash.
whatup wrote:
I bought a lot today. I feel no one can predict the bottom (or top) so I just buy at regular intervals, never sell, and hold over the long term (20+ years). But when I see stocks go down like this if I have extra cash lying around and I feel people are overly pessimistic/panicking etc I like to throw some extra into the market for fun
This is exactly what I used to do, and it is what has helped me become financially independent. I still have money in the stock market and make regular contributions, but I no longer need to pump in a lot when I see the market dip. I still could, but it's not necessary for me anymore to do that. Good on you though. You will eventually get to the point that big dips don't matter much.
BUY BABY!
I hope everyone used today's strength wisely. There won't be unlimited opportunities to avoid the real carnage.
you and the YES YES YES guy should hook up for a beer.
You heard it here first wrote:
I hope everyone used today's strength wisely. There won't be unlimited opportunities to avoid the real carnage.
I managed to sell some chunks on bounces of about 7-8%, definitely far more luck than brains, after buying in yesterday a couple of points above the daily bottom. I’m sitting with mostly cash now, looking to buy in again on the next sharp dive, maybe tomorrow. I’ve been really lucky so far catching some sales close to daily peaks and buys close to, but not at, daily bottoms. This is not for the faint of heart though... ?
The 7aji wrote:
Coronaviruses including COVID-19 are RNA viruses that mutate faster re-infection may be possible but we don't know how fast it mutates yet. Hopefully, it isn't very dramatic.
People have always been able to get the common cold flu every year, every season whatever. Some people get vaccinated all the time and are more susceptible due to their constitution and habits.
Other people like me just take care of ourselves, don't do anything crazy and don't get the flu. That's life, dramatic or not, because every person makes their own choice.
You shoulda been buying on everyone of these down days. Follow it down.
I’m not sure you realize this - 5-10mm people would likely die if we did not change our behavior at all. The absolute best case scenario, were we to not employ social distancing, would be 1mm deaths. That’s nothing like the cold or the flu.
So we need to quarantine, which could cause a massive recession. There will be stimulus etc but it could be bad. Of course, no one knows what the stock market will do.
But to compare this to a cold is unconscionable.
Panic selling to try to time the market is dumb. But people do it anyway ?
My wife and I have seen enough of these events and waited. Not this time. We had enough to make a nice investment yesterday. It's not enough to offset our current losses in the market. We will let those ride and recover
gshd dhd dnsmd dn wrote:
I’m not sure you realize this - 5-10mm people would likely die if we did not change our behavior at all.
Exactly. We need to clean up the air and water and stop using fossil fuels.
Trying to distance people socially does absolutely nothing at all and doesn't change anything. Quarantining limits people's mobility and ability to take care of themselves and makes things much worse. Treating people with spurious methods greatly increases the death rates and prolongs the outbreaks, again while not getting rid of the causes and not changing anything.
The bottom line is that we need to clean up the environment. We need to clean up the air and water and stop using fossil fuels. It is an antiquated and dirty technology that is making people sick and causing premature deaths.
dunes runner wrote:
Exactly. We need to clean up the air and water and stop using fossil fuels.
Trying to distance people socially does absolutely nothing at all and doesn't change anything. Quarantining limits people's mobility and ability to take care of themselves and makes things much worse. Treating people with spurious methods greatly increases the death rates and prolongs the outbreaks, again while not getting rid of the causes and not changing anything.
The bottom line is that we need to clean up the environment. We need to clean up the air and water and stop using fossil fuels. It is an antiquated and dirty technology that is making people sick and causing premature deaths.
Even if we all agree with you about the need to clean up the environment, what does it have to do with a virus started by a scaly anteater, or more specifically, whether it makes sense to buy, hold or sell the S&P 500 at 2,500? While you're considering that, you might also consider doing a little research on the number of hospital beds in the U.S. and the number of people likely to require hospitalization so you can better understand the need for social distancing.
Hong Kong is 12 hours time difference from NY. As I type S&P 500 futures trading in Hong Kong are down about 3%. When I was younger, I would follow S&P500 futures from east Asia, across Europe, then to U.S. Maybe someone else will post updates.
Ca$hclay wrote:
Seems like panic = profit long term. Thoughts?
I am not buying! I am shorting the Nasdaq and oil almost everyday. I have seen no proof of a reversal to the upside.
There will be a time to buy again and this will occur when the news is still bad.
I trade off of charts and my fellow college students do too. We are active traders.
Wisdom wrote:
There will be a time to buy again and this will occur when the news is still bad.
Underscoring your point . . .
“Things are bad” <> Buy
“Things are bad and they’re gonna get worse” <> Buy
“Things are bad, they’re gonna get worse and I don’t know if they’re ever going to get better” = Buy
You heard it here first wrote:
Wisdom wrote:
There will be a time to buy again and this will occur when the news is still bad.
Underscoring your point . . .
“Things are bad” <> Buy
“Things are bad and they’re gonna get worse” <> Buy
“Things are bad, they’re gonna get worse and I don’t know if they’re ever going to get better” = Buy
Typical uneducated investor^^^^^
Learn to read charts!
I went in with $30k yesterday, things in general are down 30% from their highs a month ago. We may not be at the bottom yet, but good a very good chance things will be back to where they were in a year or two, three at the worst. In 2009, it was exceptionally bad, dropping 50%, things were back to normal within four years meaning an average increase of 25% per year if you bought at the bottom. Right now we could reasonably be seeing an increase average of 10% -15%... If things drop another 10% in the next few weeks I might go in with some more.
I went in yesterday wrote:
I went in with $30k yesterday, things in general are down 30% from their highs a month ago. We may not be at the bottom yet, but good a very good chance things will be back to where they were in a year or two, three at the worst. In 2009, it was exceptionally bad, dropping 50%, things were back to normal within four years meaning an average increase of 25% per year if you bought at the bottom. Right now we could reasonably be seeing an increase average of 10% -15%... If things drop another 10% in the next few weeks I might go in with some more.
The flaw in your logic is that the high a month ago reflected historically unprecedented overvaluation. That level will not be easily recovered. It would be interesting to touch base a month, a year and three years from now to see if you’re still happy about buying the S&P at 2,500.