Coronavirus is inevitable so why the useless containment

questioning99 wrote:

I think there must be an interesting pathology in the rationalization there, and perhaps one that sheds light on the Trump base.

Trump isn't playing to his base with the "Just the flu, bro." If he had been playing to his base, all air travel to China would've been immediately, and then every other country where the virus showed up.

questioning99 wrote:

Harambe wrote:

People don't make the decision to pull the plug on their country for hysterical reasons.

I see other people like Bad Wigins doing the "wishful thinking" posts, attacking scientists, and saying, essentially, all the experts might be wrong.

You are blind if you think I haven't been posting reams of facts and figures from impeccable sources for months. YOU are the ones ignoring science and, like all the other hystericists, basically going on emotional rants, baseless assertions and ad hominem attacks, as quoted.

Harambe, yes, people do pull the plugs on their country for the absurdest of reasons. Countries are run by politicians, not doctors. The Italians can run their country how they want, but if they don't have hospital space for a couple thousand extra bad cases of viral pneumonia in their country, they were asking for trouble, because that happens every year in a population that size. Where is your reliable evidence that their hospitals couldn't handle it? There's no need to presume that's the reason for their hard-line approach - more plausible that it's an "abundance of caution" firewall on the grounds of uncertainty about the overall number of infected.

And please lose the confirmation bias, Italy is the worst-case country right now and still has only a few hundred deaths. No other country but China has done this, and they did it early when they faced similar uncertainty. The rest of the world has used ordinary methods and done just fine.

You speak without knowing the reality here. This morning we overtook the number of 9,000 people infected. The level of increase of infection at the moment is not yet linear, but exponential. A nd this trend continues till when the virus has not reached the plateau, only after that day the number of infected people, day by day, can start to slow down.

About the places in the hospitals, maybe you don't understand that who has to be hospitalized doesn't need a bed only, but must be in some department of "intensive therapy", and of course in all Italy there are not places enough in the hospital with that type of therapic organization.

Not only, but is not that all people sick or injured in Italy can't be cured because there is not coronavirus only, but the normal life, as usual, continues to produce some patient for the hospitals.

Your faith in the medical organization for people in US is very nice, but the reality will be different, and it's better to be ready.

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3. Most of the serious epidemiology experts I've been hearing seem to think that containment efforts will ultimately fail to stop the spread, and that eventually something in the rough ballpark of half the world's population will be infected.

4. It appears that a sizable proportion of those will get very sick, and a sizable proportion of *those* will die from it.

Hypocrite alert. Half the worlds population, huh? If thats the case, why arent you building a bunker right now and purchasing weapons and food and acting like it? Youre probably still driving to the grocery store, and going into the office. And youre probably arranging parties with your friends on the weekend.

Nowadays people make disasterous claims. Like the world is ending. Like a hollywood movie. But they do not act in the way that would be consistent with those claims.

It sounds like you want half of the worlds population to die. Thank god we have the avengers to stop you.

alarmist bs much? wrote:

[quote]run it's course? wrote:

It is made up. Stop making up stupid alarmist bs. You have no idea how the virus will spread or what the death rate will be. Even the top immunologists don't know. So what makes you an expert?

That's not true. We have a pretty good handle on the death rate.

Under age ten -- not single death in China.

Over age 80 -- 14% in China.

Meanwhile in Australia

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1nEnOmC6IQ

questioning99 wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Italian hospitals are already strained by a relatively small number of cases. They thought it was serious enough to shut down their entire country.

Unclear what the point of trying to downplay this is. People don't make the decision to pull the plug on their country for hysterical reasons. A fairly severe virus with zero natural immunity in the population is a large risk!

also, see this:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESox4GNUYAETNGg?format=jpg&name=medium

I see other people like Bad Wigins doing the "wishful thinking" posts, attacking scientists, and saying, essentially, all the experts might be wrong.

I think there must be an interesting pathology in the rationalization there, and perhaps one that sheds light on the Trump base.

Why do you have to make everything political? Like seriously. Lol.

We are ready as can be expected for a new viral "crisis."

tet tet wrote:

mutations...that's the only reason

This is why we all should try to stop the spread. If COVID continues to spread, there is a greater chance of the virus mutating and creating multiple strains. The fear is COVID becoming a repeating event. Compound this with Influenza and the common cold and we are talking about doubling, tripling, or quadrupling the mortality rate as a result of all of these different molecular viruses. Imagine getting a flu strain and COVID at the same time... your respiratory system will be overwhelmed by both viruses. Even a healthy person's immune system may not be able to fight off multiple viruses at the same time.

Coronavirus is Thanos wrote:

local lib wrote:

You've backpedaled from "containment is useless" to "our containment is half-assed so it isn't effective enough to slow anything".

Well, from my original post, I thought it was clear that the "containment" that's happening is half effort. I mentioned where we're being told to work from home, but allowed to go work at Starbucks with bunch of other people.

So, I think I was being pretty clear that the "containment" that is happening is half effort, so it is useless.

Yes, if there is full containment going on and actually help to slow down the spread, that could be useful. However, what's happening is half effort containment in which again, I was being clear about when I was explaining about the containment effort that is going on here in the US.

So, no backpedaling for me.

Your contention that the precautions taken are not slowing anything is inaccurate.

The more people who get treated and go to hospitals, the more people who die.

This is caused by the treatments, not by a virus.

Thanks Bernie Bro!

The stupidity on display in this thread is staggering. As a species, it seems we could use a good cull. Bad Wigins, please go to the nearest large public gathering and shake hands with everyone twice. And touch your own face a lot. Keep eating those boogers bro.

A couple of bright spots to note:

SP2, great post. Informative, accurate, and useful.

Renato Canova, thank you for the first-hand info. I believe Italy is showing us the unfortunate reality (via accurate statistics) of what a first-world public health system will experience from COVID-19, and it's not good.

Good luck, fellow citizens. Hopefully none of us needs mechanical ventilation any time in the next couple of months, or, God forbid, an ECMO unit.

Woodward Landice wrote:

The stupidity on display in this thread is staggering. As a species, it seems we could use a good cull. Bad Wigins, please go to the nearest large public gathering and shake hands with everyone twice. And touch your own face a lot. Keep eating those boogers bro.

A couple of bright spots to note:

SP2, great post. Informative, accurate, and useful.

Wait, so you ALSO think 3.5 million Americans will die from this virus? Wow.

Woodward Landice wrote:

The stupidity on display in this thread is staggering. As a species, it seems we could use a good cull. Bad Wigins, please go to the nearest large public gathering and shake hands with everyone twice. And touch your own face a lot. Keep eating those boogers bro.

A couple of bright spots to note:

SP2, great post. Informative, accurate, and useful.

Renato Canova, thank you for the first-hand info. I believe Italy is showing us the unfortunate reality (via accurate statistics) of what a first-world public health system will experience from COVID-19, and it's not good.

Good luck, fellow citizens. Hopefully none of us needs mechanical ventilation any time in the next couple of months, or, God forbid, an ECMO unit.

Ok, please then stay at home and quarantine yourself so you can participate in this fake containment. Hope you'll have a job still once this thing blows over. A lot of people are going to be laid off because of this unnecessary fake containment.

math is great wrote:

With exponential growth, one of the main factors is the rate of growth. The point of austerity measures is to ensure the pace of the spread is slowed until there is a vaccine.

TL;DNR: It's about respecting capacity constraints

At this point, it is mostly about slowing the growth enough to avoid a spike in cases that is big enough to overload the health care system (if people can't get health care, deaths from this and other problems will go up). Eventually, after enough people have been infected, herd immunity kick in, and the pandemic will die out.

Eventually, there may be a vaccine. If we are lucky, it will allow us to prevent this from becoming another seasonal bug.

dunes runner wrote:

The more people who get treated and go to hospitals, the more people who die.

This is caused by the treatments, not by a virus.

Uh... this makes no sense. The only people who are getting treatment are those who are sick enough to require it. Of course the ones dying are also going to be the ones getting treatment.

local lib wrote:

Wait, so you ALSO think 3.5 million Americans will die from this virus? Wow.

Personally, I do not think so. If the virus ran unchecked without any effort to contain, maybe. But I think people/governments are very vigilant and I imagine there won't be more than a few thousand deaths when all is said and done.

local lib wrote:

Coronavirus is Thanos wrote:

Well, from my original post, I thought it was clear that the "containment" that's happening is half effort. I mentioned where we're being told to work from home, but allowed to go work at Starbucks with bunch of other people.

So, I think I was being pretty clear that the "containment" that is happening is half effort, so it is useless.

Yes, if there is full containment going on and actually help to slow down the spread, that could be useful. However, what's happening is half effort containment in which again, I was being clear about when I was explaining about the containment effort that is going on here in the US.

So, no backpedaling for me.

Your contention that the precautions taken are not slowing anything is inaccurate.

So, how do you know that it's inaccurate? How is it that working from home effective when everyone is still out and about on weekends? How is it effective when my child is still going to school bringing any germs back home to me?

All this fear is doing is that both supply and demand are going down which will cause massive layoffs. All of these ineffective precautions are going to kill many jobs so best of luck.

stop spreading wrote:

tet tet wrote:

mutations...that's the only reason

This is why we all should try to stop the spread. If COVID continues to spread, there is a greater chance of the virus mutating and creating multiple strains. The fear is COVID becoming a repeating event. Compound this with Influenza and the common cold and we are talking about doubling, tripling, or quadrupling the mortality rate as a result of all of these different molecular viruses. Imagine getting a flu strain and COVID at the same time... your respiratory system will be overwhelmed by both viruses. Even a healthy person's immune system may not be able to fight off multiple viruses at the same time.

It’s already been shown there are at least two strains, so mutations are taking place, of course.