https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/why-its-too-early-to-compare-covid-19-with-the-fluHarvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that between 40 percent and 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. Lawrence Gostin said that these sorts of predictions are “exactly why we need to take it seriously.”
“It’s a confusing tone that the president set,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor Georgetown University who also directs the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. He said the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have underscored the seriousness of the virus, but Trump’s comments appear “to fluff it off as if it’s a common cold.”
What is the mortality rate of Covid-19?
Best guess-estimate is 2%, and the current human population is 7.7 billion
If we assume 70% of people get Covid-19, and a mortality rate of 2%, then Covid-19 will kill 154 million people.
How many people with Covid-19 need to be hospitalized?
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The stats that we have at this point is that approx 700 people from the 3700 guest and crew of Diamond Princess tested positive for the virus. That’s about 20%. There were obviously very few kids on the ship (or as I call them human incubators). Also, they took great precautions on the cruise ship (vs the care in a school for example). So maybe the % would have been higher in the general population.
Number of deaths is 6 at this point. Maybe more will die, so the percentage of deaths on infected people may be understated. On the flip side, there were a bunch of old people on the ship, so the death percentage may be overstated.
So let’s say we use 20% and 1% in our calculation instead (base case).
So 0.2% of world population, so 15 million people will die from this.
The 20% is really the concerning factor here. At 70% it’s a real issue.