Jim Walmsley OT marathon prediction thread!

I haven't given my prediction in this thread yet. In his podcast interview with LRC that will be released this week, we learn that: (1) Jim missed a key workout, and that (2) Jim asked for some advice.

The good news is I think Mr. Walmsley's missing that workout could turn out to be a blessing in disguise, if, IF Jim puts the final touches on this marathon training block. However, there is now no time to waste, and since Jim asked for advice, I'm going to be so bold to share it. If Jim follows my advice, I think it will improve his performance on Feb 29th.

I hinted my advice earlier in this thread. Hundreds, if not thousands of aspiring marathoners have possibly read Bill Rodgers' training log. Even so, it was not until I analyzed it very carefully that I noticed something that most casual observers probably gloss over. The difficulty in understanding the log may be overlooked by those not familiar with the terminology in it, specifically the meaning of the various paces he used, as follows:

(1) slow/jog;

(2) easy pace;

(2) OK pace;

(3) good pace;

(4) hard pace.

The key thing I want to leave is that in the build-up to Rodgers' first sub-2:10 at Boston 45 years ago, Bill did his last key workout in big distance intervals, spread out over two days and this workout was performed fairly close to race day, being performed on the 10th day and the 9th day out from race day. The total distance of the big intervals combined was a little less than a full marathon. This last big workout, spread out over two days, was in essence, a marathon simulator.

Jim, please do the workout, starting tomorrow, and the next day. Come what may, if you do so, you will have gained another fan.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

...and it's the same for everyone...

That’s untrue about literally everything in running. Everybody and every body are different.

over and out wrote:

The key thing I want to leave is that in the build-up to Rodgers' first sub-2:10 at Boston 45 years ago, Bill did his last key workout in big distance intervals, spread out over two days and this workout was performed fairly close to race day, being performed on the 10th day and the 9th day out from race day. The total distance of the big intervals combined was a little less than a full marathon. This last big workout, spread out over two days, was in essence, a marathon simulator.

Jim, please do the workout, starting tomorrow, and the next day. Come what may, if you do so, you will have gained another fan.

Specifically, here is a list of the three 'big interval blocks' for Rodgers' last big workout (in essence, 'marathon simulator' training) that, when combined, totaled 23 miles of 'marathon race simulation', spread out over two days, before his first sub-2:10 at Boston:

10 days out from race day:

Interval #1...7 miles HARD pace over flat course.

~5 hours later on same day , perform Interval #2 as follows:

Interval #2...4 x 1m @ 4:49 w/~400m jog

9 days out from race day:

Interval #3...12 miles HARD pace over flat course.

over and out wrote:

Specifically, here is a list of the three 'big interval blocks' for Rodgers' last big workout (in essence, 'marathon simulator' training) that, when combined, totaled 23 miles of 'marathon race simulation', spread out over two days, before his first sub-2:10 at Boston:

10 days out from race day:

Interval #1...7 miles HARD pace over flat course.

~5 hours later on same day , perform Interval #2 as follows:

Interval #2...4 x 1m @ 4:49 w/~400m jog

9 days out from race day:

Interval #3...12 miles HARD pace over flat course.

The 'secret code' or 'secret sauce' (if you will) to this 'marathon race simulator' is Interval #2, which was timed accurately on a track. The Interval #2 workout was the governor by which Rodgers' would then dial-in the feel of hard race pace, that he would then perform without a watch in Interval #1 and Interval #3.

No, there can be considerable difference in efficiency at different paces. Look for yourself at Ryan Hall's 10K times later in his career in the World Athletics database. He ran 29:17 for 17th place at Peachtree and 30:30 at BolderBoulder (7th, 1:08 off the winner) in 2011, the year he ran 2:04:58 and 2:08:04. Hall has said recently that regrets not keeping up his shorter distance speed when in his prime marathon career, but he still ran fast marathons. Hall certainly wasn't comfortable at 10K pace then.

That two day block of intervals was the final, and key workout of a body of work that prepped Rodgers for that workout and for the race. The rest of the miles on those two days, and on the remaining days until race day were to basically stimulate recovery.

Go get it Jim. Seize the day!

fast first half? wrote:

fast first half? wrote:

Through half: 62:58

Finish: 2:13:47

Place: 9th

And just to go the next step in case I nailed the time:

1. Rupp

2. Fauble

3. Korir

4. Ward

5. Fischer

...

9. Walmsley

...

14. Austin

This is a tactical race where only the finishing place matters, so I think it's crazy to think they go out at 2:06 pace. They'll probably be a couple people who go out faster than the pack, but everyone will be watching Rupp, who won't be pushing the pace. Plus, everyone is cautious about the course. They'll hit the half in 1:05+ and there's only a couple people that can hold that pace, or negative split, for the hills at the end. I think the top 3 places will be in the 2:10 to 2:12 range. Walmsley might surprise because this is a strength/endurance course. He might place between 5th to 10th, but I don't think he has the speed to surge at the end for the top 3.

1. Rupp

2. Ward

3. Fauble

I wasn't even thinking about Abdi in 2016, but you can never count him out. Watch out for him, as old as he is.

I wasn't even thinking about Abdi in 2016, but you can never count him out. Watch out for him, as old as he is.

Oops. 2012. Never mind.

Hall never ran close to his 10k potential considering his 59.43 HM was in the same year as his 28:07 10k PB.

Walmsley's recent HM suggests 2:11-2:12 and that pretty well lines up with his 5k/10k PBs.

Who?

macdaddy wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

...and it's the same for everyone...

That’s untrue about literally everything in running. Everybody and every body are different.

You took one part of my post. I was responding to the previous poster's belief that because 5:00 pace is "easy", 10000 speed is kind of meaningless. That's not true since all fit runners are going to slow down by 25-30 seconds per mile. There is no such human that's going to slow down by only 10-15 seconds per mile so 10000 speed matters.

hdjashdjahsjdhj wrote:

Who?

Are you an owl?

On strava, Jim did 8x1 today @4:55-4:45 on 3’ recovery at 7000ft. That’s moving pretty well...

Since it’s a prediction thread, I’ll say 2:13:40 good for 6th place

SDSU Aztec wrote:

macdaddy wrote:

That’s untrue about literally everything in running. Everybody and every body are different.

You took one part of my post. I was responding to the previous poster's belief that because 5:00 pace is "easy", 10000 speed is kind of meaningless. That's not true since all fit runners are going to slow down by 25-30 seconds per mile. There is no such human that's going to slow down by only 10-15 seconds per mile so 10000 speed matters.

I already pointed out Ryan Hall having lost his 10,000 speed when he was still running fast marathons. It's well documented and was talked about a lot here when he was putting up slow shorter distance times. Jo Fukuda's marathon PR is only 18 seconds per mile slower than his 10,000 PR (4:56 and 4:38), the marathon coming a month and a half after his 10,000 PR.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

That's nonsense. The faster someone's 10000 speed is, the more comfortable they will feel at a given pace in the marathon and it's the same for everyone. The best marathoners slow down about 25-30 seconds per mile from their 10000 pace.

Zersenay Tadese is the best example to disprove this. 58:23/2:08:46

there is so much wrong with this post. probably every argument is wrong.

climbing won't be his strength, it will be descending. rupp going to push the pace early? no freaking way. 2:08 pace? this course won't allow that without pacers. yeah, rupp could probably run 2:08 on this course but only with hired guns to take him through 30k. then you say walmsley's training isn't helping? he's in the best shape of his life right now. you don't need to do every kind of workout to get fit. he lacks speed so he was doing speedwork. duh

and the whole intrigue of jim is that he hasn't done 2-3 marathons before. he would never have showed up at the trials if he had already run a few marathons. he made that clear. and making the team wouldn't be one of the best marathon debuts in history. Rupp debuted at the Trials and dominated. Ryan Hall debuted with 2:06 in London.

reed wrote:

climbing won't be his strength, it will be descending.

This! You don't get the course record @ WSER if running downhills destroys your quads.

I think he'll run 2:11-2:12 but on this course in a tactical race, it will be enough to put him in the mix. Where he ends up is hard to say. But, I see him making moves on the hills and probably leading the pack at some points. There's a big chance the main contenders focus on each other and if Walmsley makes a move on a hill and descent and the others don't respond because "it's just the ultra guy, he'll come back to us" then he can cause some problems.

+1 on this.

Walmsley will be no better on the uphills than anyone else. These hills are not mountains after all...where he would have an advantage. But down hill running requires at least one of the following 2 things: 1) Great down hill running technique and/or 2) bullet-proof quads. I guarantee Walmsley has number 2...you do not run the kind of massive downhill races on the terrain he does and not have those. He likely also has number 1 but don’t know that for sure. But you would be amazed at the number of good and great runners that do not run downhills well. If Walmsley runs everyone elses’s race he likely loses. If it comes down to a 10K race there are others in the race with much higher top ends. He should run to his strengths and forget about the pack and hope like hell they forget about him. And for all of you folks that say he has not run a marathon yet...who cares. He has blistered out out 50K runs/races like no tomorrow. Hell ultra guys/gals barely consider a 50K an ultra. That distance coves the bases on going to the pain cave and nutrition. It is a similar enough distance to understand how to run a marathon.