Buddy--it's not that you're wrong. Wrong would be a good start.
You're like those "win percentage" graphs they slap onto every sports game now: Absolutely clueless about risk assessment and living in a world that does not at all reflect reality.
To those following this thread: DO NOT listen to the idiots using real time statistics for an unknown, unpredictable, and novel contagion as a means for saying what is fine and what is not fine. For the last friggin time....risk is in the future, NOT in what is currently known.
Let's use an example: For the past few years we've heard a lot about how "metrics are changing the game of football". Great. Coincidentally I recently had read that the Baltimore Ravens hired a "behavioral economist" to help crunch numbers and advise the coaching staff on in-game decisions. Consequently, the Ravens started going for it on 4th down WAY more often. Certainly didn't hurt that they had an extremely mobile QB, but they play their way to the #1 seed and the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Then they get to the playoffs, when it's one loss and you're out--ie. no room for error.
The Ravens keep what has been working and "go for it" on 4th down aggressively...except this time it doesn't work...at all....0 for 4 (twice in scoring position). Add to that two of the four times were game changing moments--their opponent drove down and scored in response to their failure (you could call that a "2nd order effect" of the failed 4th down). Ravens eventually lose in spectacular crash n burn fashion.
So.....your metrics work fine....until they don't. And you better hope to God that when they don't, it's not "game over".
Ok--now take that and apply to systemic risk dynamics. You (and the dumb*ss who started this thread) are the behavioral economist. You'll be right 99 times out of 100 and take loads of credit for "being right". But then one day you'll be wrong....very wrong....and you'll be left wondering why (if you're lucky enough to survive).
Those who understand the above should also understand that how lethal something "is" and how lethal something "could be" are two very different things. The latter is what you're guarding against, the former is more noise than signal.