The coronavirus panic proves how easily manipulated people are and how the media sensationalizes everything

Facts Matter wrote:

Fact:

Since the outbreak began at the beginning of December, 2019, as of January 29, 2020 - 170 people have died from the virus.

Fact:

According to the CDC, during the 21 week long 2018/2019 influenza season, there were 35.5 MILLION people sickened by the flu and 34,200 deaths. That's 232 influenza deaths EVERY * SINGLE * DAY!

The flu is exponentially more contagious than the coronavirus yet no one panics. There is already a vaccine and people refuse to get it. So far for the 2020 flu season, there have been 8,200 deaths and 140,000 hospitalizations. Contrast that with the 6000 cases of the coronavirus and 170 deaths and simply put...

... you all make no sense at all!

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

I suggest you read Black Swan and Antifragile. It was show you the idea of asymmetric risk. you'll learn the difference between additive risk and fat tail risk. really changed the way I looked at the world.

Corona, will kill you? What?!?!

jcristy wrote:

Corona, will kill you? What?!?!

yes. too much of any corona will kill you

[quote]Facts Matter wrote:

[quote]sanchobaile wrote:

The flu has been extensively studied and researched. We have a well developed vaccine strategy against it. Yes, it kills, but we have found no way around that. Most of the deaths are the elderly, children, and people with underlying health conditions.

The coronavirus is a new threat. Less studied and understood. Easily spread. No vaccine yet. Nobody is saying it's going to be a mass killer. They're saying that it could be. We just don't know yet, and the top medical researchers around the world, who maybe know a bit more about this than the OP, say we should pay attention to it. That's not sensationalizing. You are the one projecting any sensationalizing. Read the news, take it for what it's worth. A lot of coverage does not amount to sensationalizing

The Flu shot may not be as well studied as you think. The CDC will tell you some years are at best a 50% chance of helping you. When you look closer at the data you see that it is 50% chance of helping with certain strands they tested against, as it would be impossible to test against all strands. Which means out of the thousands of strands your odds are not always very high that you will come into contact with the strand you got a shot for. It is just as likely you will suffer a side effect or death to the shot.

In any case we are all going to die and get sick. Drink water get lots of sleep and take care of your body. The reality is many people contract the flu here and get better and many people have contracted the coronavirus and gotten better.

Run for Jesus wrote:

Is it normal to see people falling death left and right on the street in flu season?

Is it normal in flu season to close down towns and lock in 65mil people?

Is it normal to see 3 death people on the ground in a hospital in flu season, when walking through a corridor?

Dead people laying on the ground? Yes. It is normal in parts of China. And also normal every weekend in Chicago.

Facts Matter wrote:

Fact:

Since the outbreak began at the beginning of December, 2019, as of January 29, 2020 - 170 people have died from the virus.

Fact:

According to the CDC, during the 21 week long 2018/2019 influenza season, there were 35.5 MILLION people sickened by the flu and 34,200 deaths. That's 232 influenza deaths EVERY * SINGLE * DAY!

The flu is exponentially more contagious than the coronavirus yet no one panics. There is already a vaccine and people refuse to get it. So far for the 2020 flu season, there have been 8,200 deaths and 140,000 hospitalizations. Contrast that with the 6000 cases of the coronavirus and 170 deaths and simply put...

... you all make no sense at all!

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

Your facts about the flu are correct, but your overall attitude about the coronavirus is not.

1) Influenza is a known entity. Even with mutations, we know pretty much what the "season" for it is, we have pattern evidence of how it spreads, we have vaccines and anti-viral meds for it. We are also aware of incubation period, how long it lasts, etc.

2) Other outbreaks (SARS, MERS, Ebola, and now this coronovirus) are not to be ignored simply because the flu already kills lots of people each year. That's like saying we shouldn't be concerned about a serial killer who only kills 2 people a month because there's another one out there who kills 4 people a month.

3) Don't mistake fear for prudence. Containment is the best way to stop the spread of any illness. When one has proven deadly, it is more than reasonable to contain it if at all possible. This is done all the time with illness. Right now in Central Ohio, a lot of schools closed today and yesterday, and some this upcoming Monday just due to illness in the school population. This isn't a flu or coronavirus situation, but just other viruses and bacterial infections that are going around big time right now in those schools.

So, regarding your stance on this...Meh.

Yeah...this is right. I missed this before I posted a similar thing.

Facts Matter wrote:

Well.... wrote:

Something you can probably bet, is that China is only releasing the 'good' news.

They were arresting people originally for talking about it.

Chances are the figures being put out are extremely conservative.

So assume you are correct and it's much worse than being reported. Even if it was 10 times worse, meaning 60,000 cases and 1700 deaths, it still would not even equal half of the confirmed 140,000 hospitalized cases of influenza and 8,200 deaths so far this flu season.

If you are afraid of getting the coronavirus, you should be terrified of getting the flu.

Flu has been running all winter. This just started spreading a few weeks ago.

This argument doesnt make sense at all. It's like saying in 1999, Tiger Woods is obviously worse than Jack Nicklaus because he only has a few majors and a handful of wins, compared to 18. Sure, but one guy was just getting started.

Especially considering the estimated Ro for this is currently much higher than flu. 1.5-3.8, vs low 1s for most flu strains.

Flu is a serious illness. Coronavirus, both in transmissiblity and lethality, is worse than flu. If we did nothing for 6 months and let this run through the population we would see at a minimum 10-20x the number of death as flu.

Thank goodness it's not in Africa yet (or any other third world countries). That would get messy fast.

farlekpa gets it.

Thanks. As you said, Taleb's books are life altering.

The current news cycle about the coronavirus doesn't show any manipulation or malice by the media

Rather it shows the common penchant of the human animal in dealing with uncertainty and in communicating information in the modern world

The current state of the flu is not news, an unknown virus that has a small chance of being bad, simply due to human nature, will be more news!

Vietnam is a better case of how people can be manipulated then the current Talk of the Coronavirus. People being brainwashed and coerce to go Halfway Around the World to fight a needless and pointless and unjust war is much better example!

People are not Vulcans!

We are Wishful thinkers, highly charged anxiety-prone creatures!

The reason the coronavirus is news is because of the uncertainty.

We've been living with the flu all our lives and there hasn't been a big epidemic recently

How many healthy people do you know that have been killed by the flu?

Its the elderly and people with compromised immune systems!

thank goodness wrote:

Thank goodness it's not in Africa yet (or any other third world countries). That would get messy fast.

Since when in Zambia and India not a third world country? Also Thailand okay maybe 2nd world

Overall death rate dropping fast - 213 of nearly 10,000. 2%. Rate of increase in number of deaths declining too, avg of 21 per day since two days ago.

Still all deaths but 9 (204) have been in Hubei province. Elsewhere, 9 deaths out of 4100 cases means the death rate outside Hubei - that's for people diagnosed, not everyone infected - is only .2%.

Now someone pop off about 4100 being a small sample size.

Still no deaths outside of China, out of 142 confirmed cases.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Bad Wigins wrote:

Overall death rate dropping fast - 213 of nearly 10,000. 2%. Rate of increase in number of deaths declining too, avg of 21 per day since two days ago.

Still all deaths but 9 (204) have been in Hubei province. Elsewhere, 9 deaths out of 4100 cases means the death rate outside Hubei - that's for people diagnosed, not everyone infected - is only .2%.

Now someone pop off about 4100 being a small sample size.

Still no deaths outside of China, out of 142 confirmed cases.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It won't even equal the 800 deaths from SARS 2003.

A combination of media hype, misinformation and ignorance is what fuels the panic. Many of those ignorant people posing as intellectuals on this thread. Get masks, stock up on food and water, barricade yourselves in your house, EVERYONE HIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hilarious nonsense!

The name of this new coronavirus is "2019-nCoV". We now have 3 dozen sequences of it and the sequences differ by only 7 nucleic acids. Mathematical estimates suggest that there were over 43,000 infections in Wuhan alone by Jan 25, and that infections are doubling every 6 days. The virus appears milder that its cousin SARS, which had a mortality of 10% (MERS is closer to 50%). There is some hope that current antivirals used for other infections may help. There are also several groups working vaccines.

mjohnson5 wrote:

The name of this new coronavirus is "2019-nCoV". We now have 3 dozen sequences of it and the sequences differ by only 7 nucleic acids. Mathematical estimates suggest that there were over 43,000 infections in Wuhan alone by Jan 25, and that infections are doubling every 6 days. The virus appears milder that its cousin SARS, which had a mortality of 10% (MERS is closer to 50%). There is some hope that current antivirals used for other infections may help. There are also several groups working vaccines.

The source for this info is today's issue of Science: Science 31 Jan 2020:

Vol. 367, Issue 6477, pp. 492-493

The current estimate is 75,000 infected in Wuhan.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-wuhan-infected-coronavirus.html

Reasonable people: Hmmm...this novel virus has a lot of unknowns. We don't know what we don't know yet... and like many types of contagious illness this carries multiplicative risk where the real facts come later, often when it's too late. Likely some 2nd and 3rd order effects yet to surface. Better employ some reasonable low cost/high safety means to leverage the uncertainty that lies ahead.

Idiots, type 1: You moron. Stop panicking. Media hype derpa derpa. Clearly no risk. Car accidents and derp da derp da derpee doo. SARS and MERs and Influenza! Human bias der dum ta tiddily derpee dum!

Idiots, type 2: Let's use statistics to show how the world is safer and this risk will be contained. See? The future is safe. We're safe. All is well. No need for concern. The large, centralized organizations monitoring our world have everything under control. Math can predict the future! Even though R0 is the MEAN of a distribution it's clear this illness is no where near as dangerous as measles. Also even though the number of infected people is completely random I'm going to use numbers to dazzle everyone into believing things are better.

BTW--today's travel ban and traveler restriction was, in part, influenced by the paper I put up yesterday. Also the decision is a huge relief.