I think that would be a great prediction from an outside perspective, however, you are wrong. I intend to open my season in about that range. My first semester is done and now I don't have to worry about grades, I'm currently pouring 100% into running and am already having breakthroughs, so I intend to make a larger than normal jump. I've wanted this record for years and I'm going to get it, I should've been much faster than 4:38 last year anyways as it was just all around a mental train wreck year.
Synopsis of my running "career"
8th grade joined XC and was a turtle, 12:50 3k in XC or something, but trained some over the winter and ran 5:17. Was very happy with this
9th grade, overall a below average year. In XC, only managed to go sub 20 once (19:4x) - was hoping for more, but things just didn't pan out. 5:00.3 1600 in spring, not improving a ton despite more training, which looking back wasn't optimal... and I had other things going on in my life.
10th grade, my best full year of running (not counting 12th since I'm in it) - training got a lot "better" and more serious, lost a little weight, ran 18:00 in XC (4:54 1600 TT w/ awful splits) and 4:42 in track. Still obviously my 5k time is very slow, but I suppose I'm just not an XC person, my 5k is always significantly comparatively slower even when factoring in XC and additional training before track. That said, still a >100 second PR from year to year.
11th grade I had high hopes for coming off of sophomore year but only managed 17:20 in cross (had a crappy 1600 TT in 4:59), then quite honestly just lost motivation to train super hard, I didn't finish a lot of workouts that winter when they got tough, but somehow managed to improve a little by running 4:37.9 in April.
12th grade, had a baller XC season consistently running 16:30 on a multitude of courses before ultimately dropping 16:15 in my last race in poor conditions, but I gave it everything I had so I think it is a PR representative of what I was capable of. 4:32 1600m time trial w/ decent splits but all by myself, and I was tired going in. There were other people but I went to the front immediately and won by 20 seconds, my school sucks at running this year.
In other words, my 5k PR is 3:30 faster than it was freshman year where I went on to run 5 flat that spring - I think that is pretty noteworthy. Additionally my times mostly correspond, I had a big jump sophomore XC and an equally large jump in my freshman to sophomore 1600 PR's, then junior year only improved 40 seconds in XC and 5 in track
I'll continue to post my training - XC ended a month ago and I didn't take a week off, went straight to base building and am now doing tempos, hill repeats, quality long runs. I'm about to start doing my core regimen again which I've slacked on, and do something I've never done before in plyometrics. January I'll resume the interval stuff, starting with things like 8-12 by 1k moving into 400-800m repeats in february or so. I run 7 days/week and I plan to do an easy double 3 times/week. I've always trained about 40mpw in the winter on 6 days so this is a huge jump.
I've posted here before under different names, but I haven't used my registered handle in a long time because I've a) been trying to stay off letsrun and not overthink things and b) and too lazy to write a log every week... but that changes now. Here's to the beginning of a fun journey... not looking for a "predict 1600m this spring" but this is more just a fun log as yet another data point and to follow some hopefully fairly impressive improvement.
Cheers to all and another for those who also train by themselves!