NXN 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

mntrackgeek wrote:

The crazy thing is, Summit girls returned everyone this year and still didn’t win. Of course Saratoga absolutely dominated this year but anything can happen!

Not crazy at all considering it means they all got a year older. A freshman was their 4th scorer at NXN, which should give you an idea of how things work with girls.

mntrackgeek wrote:

The crazy thing is, Summit girls returned everyone this year and still didn’t win. Of course Saratoga absolutely dominated this year but anything can happen!

Another crazy thing is that FM girls have at least 11 NXN titles and this was supposed to be a redemption season after last year’s 4th place finish to go for another title after returning their top 4 and a #5 stepping up, and they ended up getting 7th. And they are still coached by Aris and Claire Walters had an awesome race.

Expect a couple new teams coming out of the woodwork with transfers.

Manly yus wrote:

mntrackgeek wrote:

The crazy thing is, Summit girls returned everyone this year and still didn’t win. Of course Saratoga absolutely dominated this year but anything can happen!

Another crazy thing is that FM girls have at least 11 NXN titles and this was supposed to be a redemption season after last year’s 4th place finish to go for another title after returning their top 4 and a #5 stepping up, and they ended up getting 7th. And they are still coached by Aris and Claire Walters had an awesome race.

And FM girls beat Saratoga each time they faced each other this season until NXN

King Sahlman wrote:

I’m putting my money on C Sahlman from Newbury Park. He went 1:57.10-800 and 4:15.14-1600 as a freshman. His XC times this year were about 12-15 seconds a mile better than his freshman year. He ran 15:09 at Woodward Park which is fantastic for a sophomore. He is the 12th fastest returning runner at NXN @ 35 seconds back from the top returner (Green).

Kid has wheels. We could see him run sub-1:53, sub 4:07 and sub 9:00 this season as a sophomore. He’ll be carrying the torch for NP next season so I have to imagine he’s going to have a phenomenal summer. He also has the huge benefit of having exceptional teammates to train with, which is an issue for a lot of national class high school boys who have nobody to run with on their team.

After the NXN 2019 race started, Sahlman was ahead of all the Newbury Park kids (including Nico) before the first turn.

That's interesting. I really think Sahlman is going to be phenomenal this season in the 800 and 1600. He'll probably break 9:00 if he runs the 3200 at Arcadia, but I could also see him contending for a state title in the 1600, which is a pretty big deal since the competition is stiff in California.

Predictions for NXN autoqualifying girls teams:

Northwest: Summit/Jesuit

Midwest: Naperville North/Yorkville

Heartland: Wayzata/Edina

California: Great Oak/Buchanan

Southeast: Chapel Hill/Loudoun Valley (don’t count out Bolles)

South: Flower Mound/Prosper (don’t count out Southlake Carroll)

Southwest: Niwot/Cherry Creek

Northeast: Ridgewood/North Hunterdon

New York: Saratoga Springs/FM

Math + Experience wrote:

Going out hard wrote:

After the NXN 2019 race started, Sahlman was ahead of all the Newbury Park kids (including Nico) before the first turn.

That's interesting. I really think Sahlman is going to be phenomenal this season in the 800 and 1600. He'll probably break 9:00 if he runs the 3200 at Arcadia, but I could also see him contending for a state title in the 1600, which is a pretty big deal since the competition is stiff in California.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sahlman run a sub-4 in the mile before he goes to college

If California teams go 1-2-3 at NXN on the boys side this coming fall, it wouldn’t surprise me.

I think the mud at NXN 2019 favored the lighter runners because they sunk less

I feel each and every year an Ohio kid or two are overlooked coming into the season. This year obviously being Caleb Brown who ended up finishing third in a loaded field. This coming year I think it’ll be Nathan Moore out of Ohio competing for a top 5-10 spot.

All of the top 18 finishers in the NXR MW boys race were seniors. Pretty crazy

Predictions for NXN autoqualifying boys teams:

Northwest:

Prediction: Jesuit/Franklin.

Jesuit looks to take the crown after qualifying last year and returning 4 of their top 7. Franklin is returning all but 1 guy and will be motivated to autoqualify after getting 3rd last year and not getting an at-large.

Midwest:

Prediction: St Charles East/New Trier.

New Trier finished 10th place but they return almost everyone, and teams that finished 2nd through 9th lost a lot of seniors. St Charles East returns 4 guys; they need a #5 and they’re back.

Heartland:

Prediction: Prior Lake/Stevens Point.

Prior Lake raced just 2 individuals in the championship race, but is looking to be the best MN team after finishing 5th there and returning everyone. Should be able to qualify as well.

Stevens Point returns 4 of their top 7 and qualified last year, so they should be able to qualify again if they find a #5.

Again not a strong region, so we could see a team out of nowhere step up and qualify.

California:

Prediction: Great Oak/Bellarmine College Prep.

Great Oak should be able to autoqualify even after graduating a lot of guys. M Joseph/Worthy/Simone should be a strong top 3 (possibly like Dodds/Cortes/Spencer from 2015), and they also return a 15:26 5k top 5 average.

Bellarmine returns everyone so they look to qualify as well.

Don’t count out Newbury Park (even though they are losing Nico Young and Aschbrenner), especially for an at-large.

Dana Hills/Jesuit should not be counted out either, especially for an at-large. Wouldn’t be surprised if CA gets 2 at-larges.

Southeast:

Prediction: Severna Park/Belen Jesuit Prep.

Don’t count out Satellite FL. Loudoun Valley is losing 6 of their top 7, so they will need more guys to do more in order to qualify again. The other 3 I mentioned are returning at least 5 of their top 7.

South:

Prediction: Southlake Carroll/The Woodlands.

They are both losing a lot of guys but they will reload like they always do. Southlake Carroll should be favorites again; they are returning 3 of their state meet scorers and year after year they seem to have guys come out of nowhere.

If The Woodlands underperforms at NXR like they did in 2017 and 2018, there could be some team that will qualify out of nowhere.

Southwest:

Prediction: Timpanogos/Skyridge.

Timpanogos is looking to qualify after getting 4th and returning their top 4. Skyridge returns 6 of their top 7 including the Thompson twins.

Skyridge had high finishes in regular season meets including state, but they did not have their best race at NXR.

American Fork/Davis/Mountain Vista should never be counted out either. Orem could also make some noise, as they return 5 of their top 7. There will probably be an at-large team in this region like almost every year.

Northeast:

Prediction: Lasalle Academy/Coe Brown Academy.

Can’t count out Christian Brothers Academy to challenge Coe Brown for second.

New York:

Prediction: Saranac Lake/FM.

FM qualified over 10 times in a row and are only losing 2 seniors. Saranac Lake finished 5th and is returning everyone.

Predictions wrote:

Predictions for NXN autoqualifying girls teams:

Northwest: Summit/Jesuit

Midwest: Naperville North/Yorkville

Heartland: Wayzata/Edina

California: Great Oak/Buchanan

Southeast: Chapel Hill/Loudoun Valley (don’t count out Bolles)

South: Flower Mound/Prosper (don’t count out Southlake Carroll)

Southwest: Niwot/Cherry Creek

Northeast: Ridgewood/North Hunterdon

New York: Saratoga Springs/FM

Explanations for Predictions for NXN autoqualifying girls teams:

Northwest: Summit/Jesuit

Summit should be the early favorites after dominating the region last year, getting 2nd at NXN, and returning a good amount.

Jesuit should move up a spot after getting 3rd last year and only losing one senior, and North Central graduating a majority of their team.

Midwest: Naperville North/Yorkville

Naperville North should retain the crown after winning NXR last year and returning everyone.

Yorkville should move up a spot after getting 3rd last year and losing only one senior, and Beavercreek graduating a majority of their team including NXN runner-up Ewert.

Heartland: Wayzata/Edina

Wayzata is a storied program that looks to qualify after getting 3rd last year and returning everyone and seeing how they have done in regionals in previous years. Their success depends on how healthy they stay during the season, something that didn’t pan out for them last season.

Edina is also a storied program that may be losing a few seniors, but they won the region handily last year, always peak at NXR, always reload, and always seem to have some new 8th and 9th graders come out of nowhere to be in their top 5 and even top 1 or 2.

Don’t count out Muskego. They qualified last year and are only losing 1 senior.

California: Great Oak/Buchanan

Great Oak may be losing a lot of seniors but this is a storied, deep program where they had girls that score for their varsity in some meets but didn’t end up in their top 7, so reloading won’t be an issue. And again, there’s always a possibility that freshman can join the team and score for their varsity.

Buchanan should qualify as well after winning state and returning 5 of their top 7.

Southeast: Chapel Hill/Loudoun Valley

Chapel Hill should qualify after getting 3rd last year and returning 6 of their top 7.

Loudoun Valley is a solid program that dominated the region on the girls side last year and returns 5 of their top 7 from the NXR championship race, but the issue is a big gap between their 4th and their 5th returner.

Weddington should not be counted out as they got 5th and is returning everyone but their #4 and #7 runner.

Bolles should not be counted out either as they got 8th and return their 1-6.

South: Flower Mound/Prosper

Prosper looks to qualify after winning NXR last year and returning 6 of their top 7.

Flower Mound looks to qualify after getting 3rd last year and Southlake Carroll graduating a lot of seniors.

Don’t count out Southlake Carroll. They always seem to reload even after graduating lots of seniors.

Southwest: Niwot/Cherry Creek

Niwot looks to qualify again after finishing at the podium at NXN and returning 5 of their top 7.

Cherry Creek should be able to qualify after returning 5 of their top 7. One of their girls returning next year was out for the rest of the 2019 season after Griak, the race they dominated in.

Northeast: Ridgewood/North Hunterdon

Ridgewood should be able to win this region after getting 2nd and returning everyone.

North Hunterdon looks to qualify again after winning last year and returning their 2-6.

New York: Saratoga Springs/FM

Not seeing any other team in the region that could challenge them. They both qualified last year. Saratoga Spring returns everyone and FM returns 5 of their top 7.

If the Woodlands chokes, Grapevine is gonna go from the south. 2nd in 5A state division with a team full of Sophomores. They'll be an absolute beast of a team next year

CA BOIZZZ wrote:

I'm a massive proponent of Bellarmine. They had an uncharacteristically weak state race and still came in an impressive 4/5th (depending on whether you count Jesuit ahead of them or not) and they have the strongest class of 2021 I've seen. Peattie as an individual could be a very low stick, even in the mix to win if he plays to his 1600 speed.

Their #4 had an off day. If he runs his normal race they would have been in close contention for the At-Large bid.

That race just proved the importance of the back end runners in cross country.

They are returning their top 7 and improvement by any sophomores and they’ll have the back end to go with the power up front.

CedarParkRunner72 wrote:

If the Woodlands chokes, Grapevine is gonna go from the south. 2nd in 5A state division with a team full of Sophomores. They'll be an absolute beast of a team next year

True. Some other teams that could contend for a qualifying spot:

- Boerne Champion. Won NXN in 2009, return all of their top 5, and were not far behind Grapevine at State/NXR.

- Klein. 5th at NXR and return their 1,2,5,6, and 7 and is looking to be mainly seniors. They will have a strong top 3 and should be a threat if their 4 and 5 can step up. In fact, their 4th returner ran a 15:59 at the “ UIL Region 2 XC Championships” meet and did not place far behind their 5th runner (3rd returner).

-El Paso Eastwood. Only losing their 1-2. They are looking to have a strong 1-3, but they will need to find a 4 and a 5. In 2018 they won NXR after placing 3rd in 2017 and losing their top 2.

-El Paso Americas if they can find a #5. Placed 6th at NXR and return 4 of their top 7. They return 4 under 16 minutes.

oldoldrunner wrote:

CA BOIZZZ wrote:

I'm a massive proponent of Bellarmine. They had an uncharacteristically weak state race and still came in an impressive 4/5th (depending on whether you count Jesuit ahead of them or not) and they have the strongest class of 2021 I've seen. Peattie as an individual could be a very low stick, even in the mix to win if he plays to his 1600 speed.

Their #4 had an off day. If he runs his normal race they would have been in close contention for the At-Large bid.

That race just proved the importance of the back end runners in cross country.

They are returning their top 7 and improvement by any sophomores and they’ll have the back end to go with the power up front.

They have nearly 200 boys on their team and only 3 broke 16:00 in the 5000 all year. Only 5 broke 16:00 for 3 miles! They're doing something right in terms of great involvement at their school, but they are also doing something wrong with development clearly.

greatest coach in the galaxy wrote:

oldoldrunner wrote:

Their #4 had an off day. If he runs his normal race they would have been in close contention for the At-Large bid.

That race just proved the importance of the back end runners in cross country.

They are returning their top 7 and improvement by any sophomores and they’ll have the back end to go with the power up front.

They have nearly 200 boys on their team and only 3 broke 16:00 in the 5000 all year. Only 5 broke 16:00 for 3 miles! They're doing something right in terms of great involvement at their school, but they are also doing something wrong with development clearly.

200 boys...wow that’s insane. No seniors in their top 7 either.

I remember a couple of years ago when 180 kids (boys / girls combined) was too many for the Loudoun Valley coaches to handle. That’s more than 10% of the school.