Sixty days until the New Year: Counting Down the top Twenty mens and womens marathoners, two every three days.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/22/2019 6:19pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Fifth lady is Ashete Bekere, 31yo and ranked 4. Won both Rotterdam in 2.22.55 and Berlin in 2.20.14. Following is my profile from before Rotterdam:

    Best of the women's entrants look to be Ashete Dido, also known as Ashete Bekere Dido. Dido in 31 next month and won in Valencia this last December in 2.21.14. Ashete is currently ranked 14 and April last year was 4th in Paris in 2.23.27. Her previous fastest was 2.23.43 in Dubai 2015, finishing 9th.

    And from Berlin:

    So my pick for second woman is Ashete Bekere, 31yo and ranked 5. Won Valencia last Dec in her PB of 2.21.14 then this April won Rotterdam in 2.22.55. Also last year was 4th in Paris in 2.23.27. Is building quite a list of great performances

    I wonder what her plans will be for the spring?

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/23/2019 4:51am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Sixth woman is Joyciline Jepkosgei, turned 26 last week and ranked 40. Won New York on debut in 2.22.38. Set the WR at the half in 2017 in Prague in 64.52 than later that year took another sec off that in Valencia. Profile following is mine from NY:

    Eighth lady may be Joyciline Jepkosgei in her debut. More soon.

    Funny story prior to April this year. Joyciline was slated to make her long awaited debut at Hamburg on the same day that the London marathon is on. Was aiming for 2.22 which is reasonable for a runner who in 2017 won two of the biggest halfs, both in under 65 min. Jepkosgei ended up being a pacer in London because, i believe, she didn't think she could beat Dibabe Kuma in Hamburg. Kuma is running the half in Copenhagen in 10 days.

    Not considered top ten this year by Athletics Weekly when next week they display their year end rankings. Is it the time? Has to be more, surely, then Gelete Burka has done.

    A day or two before I posted this, AW published their year end rankings. I am buying a digital version of it because the magazine isn’t available in newsagents here in Australia. The description sounds like it is well worth the cost.

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    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

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    4 years ago 12/24/2019 8:05am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Twentieth woman is Edna Kiplagat, turning 40 next week and ranked 45. Second in Boston in 2.24.13 and 4th in the humidity at the worlds in 2.35.36. Last year was 4th in Berlin in 2.21.18. Won London back in 2014 in 2.20.21 and was second there in 2012 in her PB of 2.19.50. Was named by Track and Field News as top ten from 2011-14 then 2016-17.

    Coming back to Boston in the spring, favourite to be runner-up again unless they name any others from this 20. Former winner there in 2017.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/24/2019 9:27am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    16th man is my surprise of the twenty: Shifera Tamru. Why? One of only two to break 2.05.30 twice during these last ten months on courses eligible for records [Legese the other]. More in a minute.

    Fifth in Dubai in 2.05.18, second in Daegu in 2.06.21, won JTBC Seoul in 2.05.29. Ranked 44 with no d.o.b. on his IAAF profile, but only his second year of marathoning. Like Tigist, like to see them test themselves in a major.

    That ‘two under 2.05.30’ was replicated by the pacemaker who won Abu Dhabi.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/24/2019 10:12am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Fifth in Dubai in 2.05.18, second in Daegu in 2.06.21, won JTBC Seoul in 2.05.29. Ranked 44 with no d.o.b. on his IAAF profile, but only his second year of marathoning. Like Tigist, like to see them test themselves in a major.

    That ‘two under 2.05.30’ was replicated by the pacemaker who won Abu Dhabi.

    And the second in Valencia, Obzilen.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/24/2019 8:01pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Seventeenth female is Tigist Girma, born 93 so 25 or 26yo and ranked 12. Won Ottawa in 2.26.34 then second in Amsterdam in 2.19.52. Has improved her times in her last five marathons. Hoping her management steer her towards a major next year and Girma could burst into the top ten.

    Following is my bio from Ottawa:

    Starting with the women, I believe an upset is on the cards. The obvious favourite is coming back to running after her last run was the 2016 Olympic marathon where she was fourth, putting a cherry on the top of a year where most would rate her among the top five women marathoners that year. I will explain my thinking when I write her profile tomorrow, but for now the winning woman in 2.23 plus, three minutes under her PB, will be Tigest Girma, ranked 73. Girma is born in 1993 so could be 25 or 26 just now. Last December, was the winner in Guangzhou in 2.26.44, taking 2.16 off her previous best. In 2017 was second in Beirut after winning there the previous year, trimming her times each year.

    Only improved her best time marginally in Ottawa but did enough to win. The quicker second in Amsterdam showed that she belongs in this 20 for the year. First marathon for her in 2020 will be the chance for another step.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/26/2019 4:34am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Next man is Bedan Karoki. 29 yo and ranked 26. Second in Tokyo in 2.06.48 and 4th in Chicago in 2.05.53. Last year was 5th in London in 2.08.34 and 9th in Chicago in 2.07.59. His best at the half was 2018 in RAK, winning in 58.42.

    Here is my bio from Chicago:

    Seventh over the line may be Bedan Karoki, 29yo, ranked 44 and 15 as a road runner. As I have said in my Copenhagen thread, couldn’t go with Sondre Moen in Fukuoka 2017 and it cost him two places in the end. Hopefully he runs his own race here and doesn’t get caught up with the top five and their obvious pace. His PB in the half of 58.42 was set at RAK last year and has a time under 60 every one of the last six years, including last month’s win in Buenos Aires.

    And also the Sondre Moen profile from C/Hagen:

    Sondre Moen will be next, 28yo and ranked 166. PB of 59.48 in Valencia, 4th in warming up for the Fukuoka marathon that year. In Japan he won by 1.22 in 2.05.48, cracking it open between 30 and 40k with 5k splits of 14.37 and 14.38. Bedan Karoki went with him for the first of those but that cost him two places at the end. In the lead up to both, on this corresponding weekend, was 7th in the Prague 10k in 27.55, the first time seven men went under 27.56 in history.

    17th here (karoki) and 18th (korir) are entrenched in this 20, but 19 and 20th are, IMHO, on a similar level with nine others and could easily drop or rise with the next performance from any of them. The first of those nine is Saina, who I wanted to do include as he is my favourite marathoner.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/26/2019 6:38am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Here is my bio from Chicago:

    Seventh over the line may be Bedan Karoki, 29yo, ranked 44 and 15 as a road runner. As I have said in my Copenhagen thread, couldn’t go with Sondre Moen in Fukuoka 2017 and it cost him two places in the end. Hopefully he runs his own race here and doesn’t get caught up with the top five and their obvious pace. His PB in the half of 58.42 was set at RAK last year and has a time under 60 every one of the last six years, including last month’s win in Buenos Aires.

    And also the Sondre Moen profile from C/Hagen:

    Sondre Moen will be next, 28yo and ranked 166. PB of 59.48 in Valencia, 4th in warming up for the Fukuoka marathon that year. In Japan he won by 1.22 in 2.05.48, cracking it open between 30 and 40k with 5k splits of 14.37 and 14.38. Bedan Karoki went with him for the first of those but that cost him two places at the end. In the lead up to both, on this corresponding weekend, was 7th in the Prague 10k in 27.55, the first time seven men went under 27.56 in history.

    17th here (karoki) and 18th (korir) are entrenched in this 20, but 19 and 20th are, IMHO, on a similar level with nine others and could easily drop or rise with the next performance from any of them. The first of those nine is Saina, who I wanted to do include as he is my favourite marathoner.

    I feel as if Saina with his disappointing performance in Valencia has damaged his chance to finish top 20 here. Would have been more of a chance if he had rested on his laurels of two quick finishes. Now there is a bitter taste that comes with his latest run. To be 1.01.57 thru halfway but finish 17th in 2.10.22 is just not up to the standard of his peers here. But as Lemma has proved, one poor result can be swept away by a major turnaround next event.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/27/2019 3:32am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    17th here (karoki) and 18th (korir) are entrenched in this 20, but 19 and 20th are, IMHO, on a similar level with nine others and could easily drop or rise with the next performance from any of them. The first of those nine is Saina, who I wanted to do include as he is my favourite marathoner.

    I feel as if Saina with his disappointing performance in Valencia has damaged his chance to finish top 20 here. Would have been more of a chance if he had rested on his laurels of two quick finishes. Now there is a bitter taste that comes with his latest run. To be 1.01.57 thru halfway but finish 17th in 2.10.22 is just not up to the standard of his peers here. But as Lemma has proved, one poor result can be swept away by a major turnaround next event.

    Second of the nine ‘others’ is Reuben Kiprop Kipyego. Winner of Abu Dhabi as a pacer in 2.04.40 with the two 5k splits between 20 and 30k of 14.16 and 14.26.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/27/2019 4:55am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    I feel as if Saina with his disappointing performance in Valencia has damaged his chance to finish top 20 here. Would have been more of a chance if he had rested on his laurels of two quick finishes. Now there is a bitter taste that comes with his latest run. To be 1.01.57 thru halfway but finish 17th in 2.10.22 is just not up to the standard of his peers here. But as Lemma has proved, one poor result can be swept away by a major turnaround next event.

    Second of the nine ‘others’ is Reuben Kiprop Kipyego. Winner of Abu Dhabi as a pacer in 2.04.40 with the two 5k splits between 20 and 30k of 14.16 and 14.26.

    Next is Kaan Kigen Obzilen, runner-up in both Rotterdam and Valencia. Was together with the eventual winner in Valencia at 35k when they both put the pedal down. Next 5k was 14.32 from Obzilen. Trouble was: the winner was 11 sec quicker and won by 25.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/27/2019 2:43pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Second of the nine ‘others’ is Reuben Kiprop Kipyego. Winner of Abu Dhabi as a pacer in 2.04.40 with the two 5k splits between 20 and 30k of 14.16 and 14.26.

    Next is Kaan Kigen Obzilen, runner-up in both Rotterdam and Valencia. Was together with the eventual winner in Valencia at 35k when they both put the pedal down. Next 5k was 14.32 from Obzilen. Trouble was: the winner was 11 sec quicker and won by 25.

    Of course, Titus Ekiru is on the cusp of any top 20 list. His manhandling of the Honolulu course reminded me of Brigid Kosgei two years ago. His winning margin of 5.14 over Wilson Chebet showed the different level he was on.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/27/2019 6:13pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Ekiru 2.08.00 broke the CR of Lawrence Cherono.

  • Cereal Questioner

    Anonymous Poster

    4 years ago 12/27/2019 6:18pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    How many of these elites are being coached by The Superior JS Wizard?

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/28/2019 4:54am EST
    re: Cereal Questioner

    Fifth of my nine is El Mahjoub Dazza, winner in both Prague and Fukuoka. Next after him is Bashir Abdi who was good enough for seventh in London and fifth in Chicago.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/28/2019 5:30am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Second of the nine ‘others’ is Reuben Kiprop Kipyego. Winner of Abu Dhabi as a pacer in 2.04.40 with the two 5k splits between 20 and 30k of 14.16 and 14.26.

    Next is Kaan Kigen Obzilen, runner-up in both Rotterdam and Valencia. Was together with the eventual winner in Valencia at 35k when they both put the pedal down. Next 5k was 14.32 from Obzilen. Trouble was: the winner was 11 sec quicker and won by 25.

    The winner in Valencia on debut is also among these, Kinde Atanaw. 2.03.51 was his time. Also the third from then and a star when he had his debut, Guye Adola. That leaves one more, who would you include?

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/28/2019 6:13pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Next is Kaan Kigen Obzilen, runner-up in both Rotterdam and Valencia. Was together with the eventual winner in Valencia at 35k when they both put the pedal down. Next 5k was 14.32 from Obzilen. Trouble was: the winner was 11 sec quicker and won by 25.

    The winner in Valencia on debut is also among these, Kinde Atanaw. 2.03.51 was his time. Also the third from then and a star when he had his debut, Guye Adola. That leaves one more, who would you include?

    Last of these is Herpasa Negasa, second in Dubai in 2.03.40. The other one considered was Kenneth Kipkemoi who was third in a major, Boston. Was twice under 2.06 last year which contributes to his World Athletics ranking but not to this conversation about 2019 only. I await to see if either return to the courses where their success came.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/29/2019 3:47pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    I have Dereje at 4, 22yo and ranked 6. Third in London in 2.20.51, DNF at Worlds then won the second deepest run all year in Valencia in 2.18.30. Halfway in 69.18 alongside Birhane and Vivian, then Azmera Abreha caught them by 35k, making 4 together. Birhane led by 4 sec at 40k and Vivian had been dropped. Roza though had enough left to go past Birhane and hold off Azmera Abreha.

    That leaves Worknesh Degefa as third this year. 29yo and ranked 9. Second in Dubai where Ruth got away from her after 35k to win by 33 sec but she still was sub 2.18 and more than 3 min ahead of all the others. She then crushed the field in Boston in 2.23.31, already leading by 2.27 at halfway.

    Athletics Weekly in their top three year end rankings agree with me. It is fairly clear cut.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 12/29/2019 9:17pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Next man is Birhanu Legese, 25yo and ranked equal second. Won Tokyo in 2.04.48 then was second in Berlin in 2.02.48.

    Here is my mini bio from Berlin:

    Legese for me is the favourite. Won Tokyo and third this year over 10k in Bangalore. Last year was 6th in Dubai and tenth in Chicago. He is still only 24 years old and the IAAF ranks him sixth.

    The other man officially ranked equal second is by pick for 4th. Lelisa Desisa is 29yo and was second in Boston in 2.07.59 before winning the World Champs in 2.10.40. That run affected his chances in New York and he could not finish there. His best time still dates back to 2013 in winning Dubai in 2.04.45 and most respected judges would acclaim him number one that year.

    The same Athletics Weekly article chose Desisa third ahead of Cherono who finished ahead of him in Boston then Cherono would go on to win another major. Can’t agree.

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    Aussiestatman

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    4 years ago 01/01/2020 6:32pm EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    That ‘two under 2.05.30’ was replicated by the pacemaker who won Abu Dhabi.

    And the second in Valencia, Obzilen.

    I would choose any of these three above this site’s tenth ranked Vincent Kipchumba.

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    Aussiestatman

    Member since 07/28/2018.

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    4 years ago 01/03/2020 6:48am EST
    re: Aussiestatman

    Aussiestatman wrote:

    Ekiru 2.08.00 broke the CR of Lawrence Cherono.

    This site in their year end rankings placed him seventh. I think he needs now to test himself in a major.

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