Rumor: Rupp and Ritz are out of Chicago

Don't you think you could just call, text, or email one of the Hanson brothers to find out about Ritz? Seems straightforward enough.

Probable is not precise wrote:

1. Rupp yes. Riz no

2. Rupp yes. Ritz yes.

3. Rupp no. Ritz no

4. Rupp no Ritz yes

So a no/no is only a 1 in 4. Surely not 50/50

Also Rupp has never had a DNS for any marathon which means his probability of running is over 50 percent.

Ritz just ran a respectable 10 mile a couple weeks ago so obviously isn't hurt. Probability greater than 50 percent.

If this is in fact true after the Hasay/Cragg thing last year.

He "guessed" that they are BOTH not running Chicago, which is simply a silly guess and if he's right or wrong, who cares? Another person yearning for the attention of others with a "see, I knew it and I told ya so". LOL! Do you know how few people actually post on Letsrun versus the number of runners who've thought the same thing? HINT: It's not 50/50;)

If it's real bad and Rupp can't even get to the trials some people on here are going to be severely butthurt

Ackley wrote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o3u0I3ORB4I

[/quote]

Looks to me like he's still got a fairly prominent bump on that back of that heel, despite the surgical smoothing.

I sincerely hope he makes it back. He's a good fellow (not to mention talented).

He had Bib #10 https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9587567

douglas burke wrote:

He had Bib #10

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=9587567

Galen Rupp

Bib: 10

Overal: 99999

Time: 00:00:00

Paul Bunyan wrote:

It's not the same as flipping a coin, where there are equal chances of getting either outcome. Rupp has participated in every marathon he has ever entered.

Rupp has entered 7 marathons and finished 6. Two of those six were the trials and the Olympics, and there is no way you're not starting those unless you know you're so hurt that you're hopeless.

So really, he has started 5 marathons where not starting was a real option.

If you toss a coin 5 times and get heads each time, do you claim that the next time isnt 50-50 odds?

But let's decide that Rupp's past history does inform the future, unlike coins. How do you feel about the fact that he hasn't raced in an entire year, despite the fact that going into a major race without any tune up race would be unprecedented for him? Does that get us back to 50-50?

Or we can go past just looking at the marathon and look at his racing history in general. He has been a DNS many times in his career. In fact, that is the reason for the running joke on here of "not Rupp certified."

Given what we non-insiders know, I'd say that a coin flip is a pretty good approximation from our perspective.

What is more fun though is to use schrodinger's cat in this situation, since Rupp's plans are unknowable to us. I say that Rupp is going to run and not run Chicago simultaneously.

I don't think its always the case the Brojos or Letsrun don't have the inside on Rupp or Alberto's stuff at times, in addition to many other subjects like Christian Coleman. Keep it in mind. I don't always love what goes on this site. Still, it might just be a smidgen of journalistic integrity not to just blindly report something they probably know but can't confirm absolutely yet. I use smidgen very lightly as this is Letsrun. Still, I do believe Rojo and Wejo don't let out everything they know. You have to keep a few things close to the vest, especially when saying something about one of the greatest talents we have in the US could have crazy implications they would be responsible for. There's a difference between KNOWING something and being able to PROVE something.

Drainthefecesswamp wrote:

If you toss a coin 5 times and get heads each time, do you claim that the next time isnt 50-50 odds?

If someone hands you a coin that you’ve never seen before and you get heads five times in your first five throws, it’s almost certainly a loaded coin. So the odds would definitely not be 50-50 on the next throw.

No thanks. wrote:

need to pay attention wrote:

I wasn't guessing last year and I'm not guessing this year. I find it odd that the Johnson Bros. don't have any inside info when it comes to these kind of things.

Why is that odd? No self respecting elite would ever share any inside information with them. They're backstabbers, rumor mongers, and gossip artists. This forum causes far more negativity and damage than any positivity for the sport.

Agree with you. I've never seen sports journalists being unashamedly negative and gossip-mongering as the people who run this site. And it trickles down and infects the message boards. Everyone is just so goddamn negative.

I would never, EVER give any sort of personal information to LetsRun if I were a pro.

I think LR does a lot of good, but I also think it has the capacity to do A LOT more good than it does.

Ignordamus wrote:

need to pay attention wrote:

I know that you won't believe me because I am not registered and won't send a personal email to the Johnson Bros but I tried to tell you guys last year about Jordan and Amy.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=8956042

Let me try again. No Ritz or Rupp this year in Chicago.

Congratulations in advance, Nostradamus. You are guessing on a 'yes-no' question ( Will Rupp run in Chicago?), so you have a 50-50 chance of being right, without knowing anything.

And if they DO run he will come back and announce that he was wrong. LOL

So many losers make these bold predictions but only speak up after the fact if their guess was correct.

It is not a prediction. It is a fact.

It was not a prediction last year with Hasay and Cragg either.

Raysism wrote:

Drainthefecesswamp wrote:

If you toss a coin 5 times and get heads each time, do you claim that the next time isnt 50-50 odds?

If someone hands you a coin that you’ve never seen before and you get heads five times in your first five throws, it’s almost certainly a loaded coin. So the odds would definitely not be 50-50 on the next throw.

I think you need to take a high school statistics class.

toomanyspikes wrote:

Raysism wrote:

If someone hands you a coin that you’ve never seen before and you get heads five times in your first five throws, it’s almost certainly a loaded coin. So the odds would definitely not be 50-50 on the next throw.

I think you need to take a high school statistics class.

I’ve taken many statistics classes. The odds that a true 50-50 coin will eventually hit heads five times in a row are very high, but that’s very different than predicting whether a coin (that you had never seen before and did not know its origin) is truly a 50-50 coin based on its first five throws.

To put it another way, if I saw a true 50% free throw shooter hit five free throws in a row, I would say that he has a 50% chance of making his next free throw. But if a guy I had never seen before hit his first five free throws, I’d say he has a better than 90% chance of hitting his sixth.

I am not in any way clairvoyant. How stupid are you people? I am simply privy to information that you are not. Does it make me better than you people? Not so much, but if ye have ears to hear, than hear. I am warning you. Pay attention!

FWIW, I asked Rupp's agent Ricky Simms why he didn't run a tuneup race this fall and whether he is still running Chicago. This is what he told me:

"Galen is all set for Chicago – it will be his next race."

need to pay attention wrote:

I wasn't guessing last year and I'm not guessing this year. I find it odd that the Johnson Bros. don't have any inside info when it comes to these kind of things.

There are very good reasons why they wouldn't.