What marathon time is reasonable?

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

I am the slower, less ready version of you...You running NJ Marathon too? Got similar reaction from the LRC crowd on mileage and going out conservatively. Seems to be a ton of trepidation over the distance, and how well a HM would translate. With that 20-miler in the bag, running 6:40 is going to feel easy for you. Why not go out at slightly faster than that pace (~6:35) for the first half? Race adrenaline and rest/taper should basically cover off that from your long run. If you feel going doing that I don't see any reason you still can't attack 2:50. Barring something going very wrong, that shouldn't bury you for Sub-3 even if the distance hits hard.

I'll be running mine in Eugene. I was thinking along the same lines as you; if I can do 20 ok, maybe with a good race-day vibe and some competition I can push through to the full marathon. But it's been a long time since I was in peak training and I'm worried about that 20 mile wall. Hoping that general race/running experience can make up for the lack of marathon experience and short training season. Good luck in NJ!

There's a lot of bad marathon runners in this thread.

I'm in a similar boat but running 60-70mpw, ran 30k in 3:50 pace a week ago (half at 1:20:xx) and think I'm in sub 2:45 shape in 3 weeks.

OP should have it in the bag. Lots of people run 2:45 on 60mpw at those paces.

zyzx wrote:

Your half time definitely indicates 2:50 shape, but your mileage is pretty low. So I'd say 2:50 as an "A" goal with 2:55 being a "B" goal. For my first marathon, I went in with almost exactly the same HM time, but my mileage was 70, with a peak at 80. I ran 2:49.

I’ve run 2:33 and 1:13:08 on 50 mpw. (2:27 on 80)

I ran 2:51 on 10 weeks of 35 miles where I was not going on any runs for three years prior.

Please stop with this “you need x-amount of miles to run this time” garbage.

Talent plays a big part too

I had a 1:20:47 half PR going into my first marathon. I was also barely over 18, and had no idea what the hell I was doing. No solid training logs from back then, but I'd estimate weekly mileage of around 40 mpw (definitely low, whatever it was), though with a fair amount of additional crosstraining.

Surprising absolutely no one who knows anything about running, 18yos, or 18yos running their first marathon, I went out too fast. I split 1:23/1:40//3:03, which actually doesn't look all that bad on paper (I mean, it's not good, but it's not the worst wheels coming off out there), but sure felt worse than that at the time.

Anyway, I shouldn't have done that. You shouldn't do that, either. I know that everyone else has already said, "for the love of god, don't go out too fast," but I just wanted to add my voice to that chorus. (So what should you do? Personally, I'd aim to hit the half in, say, 1:28, but feel things out all the way through mile 20 and don't pick things up for real until there. You could be surprised what happens at the end.)

Good luck!

How hard was that 20-miler for you? I'm a sub-245 marathoner and a 20-miler at 6:40 pace would be extremely hard for me during training, I would only do them 1-2 times over a training cycle and with a group.

If it felt like easy running, you may be ready for 2:50 all right. Taper well, sleep, eat, have a nutrition strategy. Start at 6:40 for 2:55 and if you feel good speed up to 6:30 for n awesome negative split.

I am right there with ya. Training for my first road marathon and a little lost on pacing. I have been running 67 MPW for the last few months. Training at 5300 ft I have done an 18 miler at 6:24 pace, ran 14 miles last week at 6:10 pace. Ran a pretty crappy 10k time trial at 36:45 while sick. Went to sea level and ran what felt like an easy 10 miler in training in 59 minutes. Think I can hit 2:45 and if I fall short stay under 2:50 as it is at sea level. Also hope I am not overshooting my goals! Sounds like you are just a little behind me so 2:50 to 2:55 might be right on.

mlgrun wrote:

Thanks for the advice! Yeah the marathon is in 2.5 weeks. Don't think it changes anything but I looked again at my half time and it was 1:20:42, not 1:21:42.

Actually this does change things - 1:20 is for sure in the 2:50 range, especially with the 20 miler at 6:40 pace. I'm also running Eugene, but I'm not as fast as you. I ran a 1:23 half in January, so now hoping to run 2:55-2:58, or sub-3 at least (but according to the hobby joggers earlier in the thread I should go jog a 3:20?) - lets hope for good weather!