What marathon time is reasonable?

mlgrun wrote:

I took a few years off after some D3 college running but am now training for my first (real) marathon. I did a half marathon about a month ago in 1:21:42, and a 20 miler at a bit under 6:40 pace this last weekend. My weekly mileage has mostly been 50-60 for the last several weeks. The marathon is in less than 3 weeks so my training is basically over; I'm just wondering what I could reasonably expect to run. I keep telling myself 2:50 in the hopes that even if I miss that time, I'll stay sub 3. Any thoughts or suggestions on how to make that happen?

Dont get fat before then.

Your half time definitely indicates 2:50 shape, but your mileage is pretty low. So I'd say 2:50 as an "A" goal with 2:55 being a "B" goal. For my first marathon, I went in with almost exactly the same HM time, but my mileage was 70, with a peak at 80. I ran 2:49.

The half marathon indicates a marathon of max. 2:51-2:52 if you're well prepared with enough long runs and mileage. However, it seems like you are more or less underprepared (low mileage, few long runs, no marathon race experience?). Unless you feel that you could have run even much faster in the half or it was a very slow course, there might be a risk to start at 2:50 pace. Definitely don't start any faster. You could slow down massively in the last ten miles and even fail to break 3 h with a huge positive split. We have seen this all so often...

A 6:20 mile in the beginning might be a 7:00 or even 8:00 in the last few miles.

Given that your mileage is not particularly high, I think that the better predictor of your marathon time is your 20 miler as opposed to your half marathon. Based on about 6:40 pace for 20 miles, and the fact that your mileage is not too high, I would shoot for 3:00 as a goal, but 3:02/3:03 would be satisfactory. Go out at 6:55 pace and see if you can hold it.

long runs wrote:

Given that your mileage is not particularly high, I think that the better predictor of your marathon time is your 20 miler as opposed to your half marathon. Based on about 6:40 pace for 20 miles, and the fact that your mileage is not too high, I would shoot for 3:00 as a goal, but 3:02/3:03 would be satisfactory. Go out at 6:55 pace and see if you can hold it.

^

This

Hitting the wall is a real thing.

Keep on 2:58 pace and hope you don’t blow up. It’s another world past mile 22.

Don't change your goal now. 2:50 is only 10 seconds faster than your long run pace.

If you run 7 min pace the whole way then you'll never know what you could have done. If you challenge yourself and fail then you know how close you were and can adjust your training for next time.

basically what the other folks have said. I'd say start off at 2:55 pace and try holding that pace until mile 16. That's where you can very gradually pick it up (you can also kill your race). At 18 miles a little more, etc. You can think of mile 20 as the halfway mark, or the race starts at mile 20, etc.

Don't be concerned with everyone who is saying 50-60 miles is too low. I am a firm believer in quality over quantity. I have always seemed to come up with injuries if I hit anything over 65 miles, so my marathon training is generally in the upper 50s- low 60s range, but I do a lot of stuff at marathon pace, multiple 20+ mile runs (and at least one LR of 3 hours), etc. So if your quality hasn't been good AND you don't have a ton of quantity, you need to be very careful. Don't even think about "making a move" until after 20 miles. I would say stay at just under 3 hour pace and if you are still feeling strong at 21 or beyond, go for it.

I don't think you need to drop your goal as far back as some are suggesting. 1:21 is fast enough to go 2:50. When I broke 2:50 for the first time (2:47) I had only run 1:19:56 for the half. I was probably a bit more fit than that but I think 1:21 is pretty solid for sub-2:50. The mileage/number of long runs are a factor. 6:40 for 20 is really good, even better if you felt comfortable during it. I would say go out in 1:26ish. Give yourself a chance to come back a little faster. I don't think you have to be as cautious as 3 hrs-flat. Buy some Vaporfly 4%'s & make sure you don't run any miles under 6:30 through the first 10 miles. Get to 25-30k before cranking it down if you're feeling good. The marathon is a beast.

If this is really your debut marathon, here's an opinion from a guy who ran his debut's first 15 miles too fast. Your first 5 miles will be the easiest you've ever run. Go out slower than you think you can. If you've done several 20+ milers at the pace you mentioned, maybe I'd be more aggressive. However, if you hit mile 16 on race day and start not feeling comfortable, it's a really ugly finish.

So my advice: if you think 2:50 is in play, go out in 3:00 pace for the first 5-10k and go from there. You will be alot happier when you run 2:54 and finish feeling great with the experience to run faster in your 2nd marathon than you will if you run the first 15 miles @ 2:50 pace and then finish in 3:10 feeling like you just got hit by a firetruck.

Wanted to add -- I'm assuming your marathon is in 2.5 weeks based off of what you said? You can still get in an 18ish mile long run this weekend with some marathon paced miles thrown in -- 2 up, 4 @ 6:20-30, 6 easy, 4 @ 6:20-30, 2 easy. Something like that could help you get some more marathon pace in. Then you have time for one more good workout 1.5 weeks out (10-11 days) -- 10-12 x 1k, 6-7 x mile, 3-4 x 2 miles, 2-3 x 3 miles, etc. Those types of workouts could be a touch aggressive but the paces should be in the threshold range. No other workouts except the long run, one 1.5 out, and a light taper week workout (whatever you like -- 4 x 1200, 5 x 1km, 3 @ MP, etc.). Do a MLR -- 12-14 miles 1 week out. You got this!

NERunner053 wrote:

I don't think you need to drop your goal as far back as some are suggesting. 1:21 is fast enough to go 2:50. When I broke 2:50 for the first time (2:47) I had only run 1:19:56 for the half. I was probably a bit more fit than that but I think 1:21 is pretty solid for sub-2:50. The mileage/number of long runs are a factor. 6:40 for 20 is really good, even better if you felt comfortable during it. I would say go out in 1:26ish. Give yourself a chance to come back a little faster. I don't think you have to be as cautious as 3 hrs-flat. Buy some Vaporfly 4%'s & make sure you don't run any miles under 6:30 through the first 10 miles. Get to 25-30k before cranking it down if you're feeling good. The marathon is a beast.

I agree with this guy - a lot of very cautious advice here, your 20 miler indicates 2:50 (or better) could happen. Hit the half in 1:26 and see what you can do....

long runs wrote:

Given that your mileage is not particularly high, I think that the better predictor of your marathon time is your 20 miler as opposed to your half marathon. Based on about 6:40 pace for 20 miles, and the fact that your mileage is not too high, I would shoot for 3:00 as a goal, but 3:02/3:03 would be satisfactory. Go out at 6:55 pace and see if you can hold it.

I ran my debut marathon in 3:01 and there is no way in hell I could've ran 20 miles at 6:40 pace during training - all of my long runs (just four 20 milers) were around 8 min pace. This guy could've likely broken 3 hours on this recent training run - he can do waaaaaay better in an actual race. Taper smart (listen to NErunner above), dial in the nutrition and run 2:50 or better.....

Thanks for the advice! Yeah the marathon is in 2.5 weeks. Don't think it changes anything but I looked again at my half time and it was 1:20:42, not 1:21:42.

You can run 2:50 or dang close.

you are well done - that's what I tell you

If this was your second marathon, I would say go out in 1:25, but since it is the first, I would go out in 1:27-1:28 and take it from there.

On my first marathon I had exactly your times and similar mileage (50mpw, 1:20:20 half and 6:35 pace 18 miler), but the weather was sub-optimal and the course had a few hills; I run 2:54 with even splits and was glad I went out in 1:27 rather than 1:25 as the last couple of miles I was hanging on for dear life.

I am the slower, less ready version of you...You running NJ Marathon too? Got similar reaction from the LRC crowd on mileage and going out conservatively. Seems to be a ton of trepidation over the distance, and how well a HM would translate. With that 20-miler in the bag, running 6:40 is going to feel easy for you. Why not go out at slightly faster than that pace (~6:35) for the first half? Race adrenaline and rest/taper should basically cover off that from your long run. If you feel going doing that I don't see any reason you still can't attack 2:50. Barring something going very wrong, that shouldn't bury you for Sub-3 even if the distance hits hard.