If Kipchoge ran Dubai...

Kipchoge likely would not have even broken 2:02.

1:57:64

NEW WORLD RECORD!!!!!!!!!!

Ouray Chalet wrote:

I think he'd be under 2:01. He ran 60:32 on the back half of Berlin. If he had 3 pacers through 30k, I think he has a chance at 2:00. Am I completely insane to think this?

Wouldn't today have been like the 7th fastest Berlin performance? Why is Dubai supposedly faster?

fawcsnikl wrote:

Ouray Chalet wrote:

I think he'd be under 2:01. He ran 60:32 on the back half of Berlin. If he had 3 pacers through 30k, I think he has a chance at 2:00. Am I completely insane to think this?

Wouldn't today have been like the 7th fastest Berlin performance? Why is Dubai supposedly faster?

Because the Dubai field is always no-names who can't get appearance fees elsewhere, and who never come close to their Dubai PR elsewhere...

Hardloper wrote:

fawcsnikl wrote:

Wouldn't today have been like the 7th fastest Berlin performance? Why is Dubai supposedly faster?

Because the Dubai field is always no-names who can't get appearance fees elsewhere, and who never come close to their Dubai PR elsewhere...

I remember a Dubai thread a while back where someone said the reason Dubai is faster is because the road surface their is more bouncy or something. Anyone thoughts on this? Paula probably could've went 2:13 on the Dubai course.

I read letsrun a lot wrote:

I remember a Dubai thread a while back where someone said the reason Dubai is faster is because the road surface their is more bouncy or something. Anyone thoughts on this? Paula probably could've went 2:13 on the Dubai course.

Yes, it's constructed same as a running track, but not coated with the porous layer of textured spray.

"The porous surface track consists of a base mat composed of black granules and a binder, covered by a porous layer coated in a texture spray."

It would be interesting to look at the statistics here. How many are a one-hit wonder.

yyy wrote:

It would be interesting to look at the statistics here. How many are a one-hit wonder.

Most of them. I'd think sub 2:02 for sure.

Kipchoge would set another WR, and possibly break 2:00, because the course is short.

DC Wonk wrote:

Kipchoge would set another WR, and possibly break 2:00, because the course is short.

Where exactly would you say it is short? Or are you just talking out of your @ss like most people here with little to no knowledge of the subject du jour? K splits look somewhat even- i.e. no massive 30 sec or 1:00 differences. Course was certified by one of he best in the business.

fawcsnikl wrote:

Wouldn't today have been like the 7th fastest Berlin performance? Why is Dubai supposedly faster?

Exactly.

Kipchoge's time at Dubai would be slower.

Hardloper wrote:

fawcsnikl wrote:

Wouldn't today have been like the 7th fastest Berlin performance? Why is Dubai supposedly faster?

Because the Dubai field is always no-names who can't get appearance fees elsewhere, and who never come close to their Dubai PR elsewhere...

Kind of, yeah. But Gebrselassie couldn't break his WR on the Dubai course. And if the depth of competition is so much lower, why wouldn't a guy like Kipsang, E. Mutai, etc. have come and won $200,000 and run 2:02? Plus, the Dubai one-hit-wonders really are one-hit-wonders: it's not like they succeed in Dubai year after year and can't run fast anywhere else.

It's always been confusing to me. Why are there so many 2:04 randos in Dubai? You could argue that a Dubai 2:04 is realyl a Berlin 2:05, but that just doesn't seem to be the case. Or it could be that Dubai is the place where lots of super-talented guys tend to debut, and subsequently burn out.

What I don't know is why is that limited to Dubai? If a guy comes out of nowhere somewhere else, you'd expect him to last for a year or two. But in Dubai, you often never hear of them again.

What is the drug testing like at that race?

real problem here is that several studies have shown that the shoes improve performance by 4.5%. that is about 5 minutes or so. if that is true it has to be clear to everyone that the recent times, while real, are not comparable to times even 2 years ago. what happens now is very unclear. also, it may well be that based on running gait the shoes may help one athelete over another. so common sense dicates taking all these time (like dubai last night) and refrain from thinking that it is training or altitude or ... so i do not know where to rank kipchoge, probably after bekele , geb, kipsang, and kimetto for sure as he would be almost 2-3 minutes slower than each of them.

What temperature was it?

He woulda been tripped and trampled at the start

older runner wrote:

real problem here is that several studies have shown that the shoes improve performance by 4.5%. that is about 5 minutes or so. if that is true it has to be clear to everyone that the recent times, while real, are not comparable to times even 2 years ago. what happens now is very unclear. also, it may well be that based on running gait the shoes may help one athelete over another. so common sense dicates taking all these time (like dubai last night) and refrain from thinking that it is training or altitude or ... so i do not know where to rank kipchoge, probably after bekele , geb, kipsang, and kimetto for sure as he would be almost 2-3 minutes slower than each of them.

From what I've read, Bekele doesn't like the 4% shoes.

older runner wrote:

real problem here is that several studies have shown that the shoes improve performance by 4.5%. that is about 5 minutes or so. if that is true it has to be clear to everyone that the recent times, while real, are not comparable to times even 2 years ago. what happens now is very unclear. also, it may well be that based on running gait the shoes may help one athelete over another. so common sense dicates taking all these time (like dubai last night) and refrain from thinking that it is training or altitude or ... so i do not know where to rank kipchoge, probably after bekele , geb, kipsang, and kimetto for sure as he would be almost 2-3 minutes slower than each of them.

Just stop right there. Your very first statement negates anything you say after that. Please link to just ONE legitimate study that says the "performances improve by 4%" using the Nike shoes. Just one.

Also you have to consider the previous years' prize purse of $200k. If you lived in a country where the average income is $800/year.. going home from Dubai with a 200K check, plus possibly an appearance fee and any other bonuses.. I'd probably retire, or race a few more times and call it good.

Plus Dubai isn't a marathon major. A sponsored athlete might get pressured to do NYC over Dubai, since no one watches Dubai in the USA. Etc

I think the narrative that Dubai winners are one hit wonders is a bit overblown...

If you look at the past 6 years, you have Desisa (star, 3 WMM titles), Lemi Berhanu (4 marathon wins after Dubai, including Boston, 2nd in Dubai, 4th in NY), Tola (2nd in Worlds, beat Rupp in Prague Half, 3rd in Dubai, 4th in NY) and Geremew, who came 2nd in Chicago last year and won a couple of halfs (beating Karoki in one of them).....Mekonnen and Abera didn't do much after their Dubai wins, but I wouldn't call any of the others one hit wonders