Yomif Kjelcha?!?! On the juice or just a freaking legend?

That's exactly what I said, cited word for word.

Yes. The other study was about the IAAF World Championship, including all championship elite athletes, like those from Kenya and Ethiopia and America, and resulted in 43.6%, a number that was more likely underestimated than overestimated.

Here, cited in full, is the complete Results part of the abstract (WCA: Word Championships in Athletics 2011; PAG: Pan-Arab Games 2011):

Arghh, I got trolled again. Oh well, some day I will learn...

Here's an expert opinion from Dr. Olaf Schurnacher, who serves on the lAAF Expert Panel for ABP cases. This is from the Karamasheva CAS hearing (paragraph 77):

77. "Moreover, EPO is typically taken as a course of many weeks, not as a single injection. Professer Schumacher explained that it can increase oxygen supply by 6% and take as much as one minute off the time taken to run 10,000 metres, and proportionately more over lesser distances."

For a 30 min runner that would be ~3.3% improvement.

No, I'm glad you held your ground. Your rebuttal brought up some important facts that I don't think many are aware of. Well done.

Doped to the Max wrote:

Here's an expert opinion from Dr. Olaf Schurnacher, who serves on the lAAF Expert Panel for ABP cases. This is from the Karamasheva CAS hearing (paragraph 77):

77. "Moreover, EPO is typically taken as a course of many weeks, not as a single injection. Professer Schumacher explained that it can increase oxygen supply by 6% and take as much as one minute off the time taken to run 10,000 metres, and proportionately more over lesser distances."

Yes, thank you, we discussed that in combination with the 200 mL blood doping study, which resulted in similar improvements without triggering the ABP alarms.

And Schumacher's statement was only about EPO, not EPO + testo + HGH + speed peptide etc.

But alas, the PR shills here rather attack me for stating that doping can give you 15 -30 seconds over 5000 m, instead of accepting experts' opinions. Same old, same old.

After seeing a quote that says experts can estimate performance improvements for elites, it is unsurprising, and unremarkable, to be able to find an example of an expert, attempting to make such estimates. I note that the choice of 30 minutes seems to come from you, rather than Olaf Schumacher.

Doped to the Max wrote:

Here's an expert opinion from Dr. Olaf Schurnacher, who serves on the lAAF Expert Panel for ABP cases. This is from the Karamasheva CAS hearing (paragraph 77):

77. "Moreover, EPO is typically taken as a course of many weeks, not as a single injection. Professer Schumacher explained that it can increase oxygen supply by 6% and take as much as one minute off the time taken to run 10,000 metres, and proportionately more over lesser distances."

For a 30 min runner that would be ~3.3% improvement.

Again, what you wrote is this:

casual obsever wrote:

In reality, with drugs providing benefits of the order of 2% - 4%, and roughly half of all championship athletes - including the athletes that don't even reach the finals - being cheats, a clean sub-13 is quite unlikely, not to mention a clean 12:46.

First, a clean 12:46 would imply that that runner could run 12:16 - 12:31 on drugs, times completely unheard of,

and second, one would need to be quite a hero to resist such a temptation in this doping climate.

My point was to show how your "in reality" already significantly differs from the reality of your cited sources, themselves indirectly summarizing other sources, and why this leads me to be unconvinced of your non-expert opinions, based on your characterization of "reality".

First, you said "order of 2%-4%", or 15-30 seconds for the 13:00 runner, applying simple mathematics.

Yet your cited source says "up to 3%", or about 23 seconds for the 13:00 runner, using the same mathematics.

3% was not an average, with a +/- statistical error, but an upper bound, designed to represent some conservative maximum.

This is an exaggeration of up to 28% over and above the reality of your source, which itself indirectly refers to other prime sources.

And, as I pointed out, and you did not nor could not rebut, many experts, the authors of the prime sources, often caution against attempting to project findings from non-elites onto elites, such as 12:46 runners.

So this is not me, arguing against 15-30 seconds, as if I were denying the opinions of experts, but me pointing out that 1) the expert you cited did not say 30 seconds, and 2) other experts, authors of the referenced literature, disagree that you can estimate elite improvements from studies on non-elites.

I am on the side of experts who caution against making estimates "at the top" by extrapolating based on data "from the middle".

Second, you said "roughly half", based on a source that explicitly said "50%", again, a source that indirectly referenced other prime sources.

You knew full well that one of the surveys was not of world champions, and included other sports outside of athletics.

Now you backpedal, and say 43.6%, citing the prime source. "Roughly half" is a small stretch from 43.6%, but could have been acceptable, had you not given us your peer-reviewed source.

This is an exaggeration of 14.7%.

With respect to 43.6% estimating true doping prevelance, not wishing to re-open an old pointless debate about applying the sensitivity analysis of the 43.6% survey result, I will just point out that 43.6% includes all world champion participants, including sprints and field events, and combining men and women.

Experts do not suggest that 43.6% applies to elite male 5000m event.

What you also neglect is that there are legal ways to boost RBCs that are similarly proven to enhance performance. You are surely aware of the 1997 Stray Gundersen Altitude study (DOI: 10.1152/jappl.1997.83.1.102), where a group of runners, after improving 2.4%, about 24 seconds, in a sea-level control phase of the study, improved an additional 1.3%, or about 13.8 seconds, with high-low altitude training, with an even greater improvement reported when looking only at the men (approx 2%, eyeballing from a graph, but hard to say without data). This study shows that blood doping is not the only way for sea-level athletes to increase RBC, VO2max, and significantly improve 5000m performance.

It is for these reasons, I'm inclined to dismiss your non-expert opinions of "a clean sub-13 is quite unlikely, not to mention a clean 12:46", and "a clean 12:46 would imply that that runner could run 12:16 - 12:31 on drugs".

rekrunner wrote:

After seeing a quote that says experts can estimate performance improvements for elites, it is unsurprising, and unremarkable, to be able to find an example of an expert, attempting to make such estimates.

I think you're being obstinate. You don't have to find it surprising or remarkable. The point of referencing Dr. Schumacher is to show that there is an estimate given by a renowned expert with unassailable credentials who serves on the IAAF expert panel that reviews ABP hematological anomalies cases.

Here's an expert opinion from Dr. Olaf Schumacher. who serves on the lAAF Expert Panel for ABP cases. This is from the Karamasheva CAS hearing (paragraph 77):

77. "Moreover, EPO is typically taken as a course of many weeks, not as a single injection. Professer Schumacher explained that it can increase oxygen supply by 6% and take as much as one minute off the time taken to run 10,000 metres, and proportionately more over lesser distances."

[/quote]rekrunner wrote:

I note that the choice of 30 minutes seems to come from you, rather than Olaf Schumacher.[/quote]True....Dr. Schumacher just states "as much as one minute off the time taken to run 10,000 metres." So, he gives distance (10k) and the amount of time improved (1 min). Therefore, to obtain a percentage (%) improvement you would have to select a base time to use in the calculation...right? I used a 30 min 10k time for illustration purposes (1 min improvement = ~3.3%). If you don't like me using 30 min...then what do you suggest? A faster time? A slower time? The percentages don't change much with different base times using a one minute improvement, e.g. 31:00 - 30:00 (~3.2%) 29:00 - 28:00 (~3.4%) 28:00 - 27:00 (~3.5%).

You are not allowed to use 3.2% when it really could be 3.4%!

Sorry but you just lost all credibility.

Would you jackwagons please stop ruining threads? Holy $hit.

ex-runner wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Most of us here lol. 100% of us here I would say. I have no idea if Kejelcha is on PEDs or not but he's a ridiculous talent of which there're few in the history of the world.

Yeah the idea on letsrun that EPO turns you into superman is really misguided.

For the record, I'm certain that Kjelcha is clean. And if he runs crazy times this year like 12:40 and sub 7:25 then maybe some will start to believe that it is possible to break Bekele's and Komen's records without drugs.

Well, you would know that EPO doesn't turn an athlete of ordinary ability into a superman.

Go away- both of you wrote:

Would you jackwagons please stop ruining threads? Holy $hit.

Every single thread celebrating the achievement of an African runner, Rekrunner comes along to start a pages long wall of text discussion on whether or not EPO works.

Bob Washington wrote:

The man went 2:18 for 1k then literally less than an hour later ran a 3:52 mile. He looked so smooth too. So, the question is, is he gonna drop something like a sub 3:50 mile and have a sub 12:50 5k from last season off of talent and hard work or is he all over that EPO?

Well both Ethiopians and Kenyans (and Moroccans) have to submit at least three random blood tests in the next 10 months before Doha.

I wonder if the first bust will happen before the end of this month?

+1, no idea why so many people dislike you.

Go away- both of you wrote:

Would you jackwagons please stop ruining threads? Holy $hit.

NEVER!!

LISTEN TO ME!!!!!

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jizz swallow is this a joke basic barf fart gag moron

jizzel drivel slurp fart choke sh*t are you dense?

basic ~ 15 min altitude 5k intrinsic pretty fast for a white boi I am clean wr holder

Aouita cheats Ovett cheats Paula cheats Gary cheats Everybody Faster Than Me cheats gargle slurp

is this a joke? my times are superior to all others slurp gag drivel

Rekrunner is Gary, Said is Aouita, Coevett is Ovett, Subway is Snell, El K is Kiprop, Blacko is Bernard, Wejo is Rojo, Jamin is King and I am Chad - Alpha Male Clean WR Holder (altitude)!

Aouita cheats Ovett cheats Paula cheats Gary cheats Everybody Faster Than Me cheats gargle slurp

I am not a racist because I only hate Brits and Brits and Brits and Brits and Brits and British teeth and Coe and Brits and Brits and Brits and grrrrrrrrrr......where are my freaking meds?????

Aouita cheats Ovett cheats Paula cheats Gary cheats Everybody Faster Than Me cheats gargle slurp

intrinsic moron myself quote wabbit idiot gargle turning into Ventolin every passing day gargle wabit.....where are my freaking meds?????

basic ~ 15 min altitude 5k intrinsic pretty fast for a white boi I am clean wr holder

snurf sniffle drivel dribble slurp burp gag barf moron.....where are my freaking meds?????

Coevett wrote:

ex-runner wrote:

Yeah the idea on letsrun that EPO turns you into superman is really misguided.

For the record, I'm certain that Kjelcha is clean. And if he runs crazy times this year like 12:40 and sub 7:25 then maybe some will start to believe that it is possible to break Bekele's and Komen's records without drugs.

Well, you would know that EPO doesn't turn an athlete of ordinary ability into a superman.

Stop embarrassing yourself.

Ok, last try...

There is no "yet" there, as I explained before:

Note also that Schumacher talked about a minute in the 10,000, again, with blood doping alone, excluding any synergistic effects. That would be about 28 s over 5,000 m, and I said ""of the order of"...

No, it is not, see above, plus I wrote "see for example", as there are other sources like Schumacher.

Again, there too I said "see for example", for there was more than one source, and you yet again ignore that the 43.6% were likely underestimated. Most people would not argue against approximating likely underestimated 43.6% with "roughly half"...

The experts gave as an overall, average number, for all of the IAAF elite events. Not sure why you think the male 5000m event would be different, but feel free to argue that it's dirtier or less dirty than say, the marathon.

No, I was merely repeating experts' opinions about unfairly performance enhancing via blood doping.

Oops, correcting the above quoting error:

rekrunner wrote:

Second, you said "roughly half",

...

"Roughly half" is a small stretch from 43.6%, but could have been acceptable, had you not given us your peer-reviewed source.

This is an exaggeration of 14.7%.

Again, there too I said "see for example", for there was more than one source, and you yet again ignore that the 43.6% were likely underestimated. Most people would not argue against approximating likely underestimated 43.6% with "roughly half"...

Coevett wrote:

Go away- both of you wrote:

Would you jackwagons please stop ruining threads? Holy $hit.

Every single thread celebrating the achievement of an African runner, Rekrunner comes along to start a pages long wall of text discussion on whether or not EPO works.

+1

Who is this? Chad? ?