artojas wrote:
ex-runner wrote:
Why on earth do you think Max Burgin would beat Clayton Murphy right now?
Please tell me your thoughts processes and how you came to that conclusion.
For the record, Murphy ran 1:44 this year and the weekend just gone he won an elite race in London running 1:46.5 with a 54.5s first lap.
Second place was Adam Kzszot, multiple time European champion indoor and outdoor, world bronze medalist, 1:43.3 PB.
Third was Eliot Giles, twice UK champion, European bronze medallist plus 1:44 PB.
Perhaps if you know something we don't, and presumably neither Max himself nor Max's coach knows, you should tell them. Because Max Burgin didn't run the British champs and presumably you think he could have won the European senior championships this year.
I also get excited to see young talent blossoming, but the hype is too much. Of course Max is not ready yet to take on elite 800m specialists. Why should he be? Let him develop, he's only 16.
From a British perspective I'd rather he runs 1:47 for the next 5 years and then comes through as a senior to run 1:42 at 22 and be a real medal threat, rather than watch him run 1:45 next year then crash and burn as a senior.
Just a feeling, looking at the running form and determination. Centro also has a better PB and SB than Ingebrigtsen, but got beat. Kinda feels, that the same would happen if Murphy and Burgins would be put in the same race. Also Burgins gives me the same vibe as Ingebrigtsen, the stuff champions are made of. Something I once saw in Murphy, but don't see anymore, a running motor of some kind.
I think Burgins will run 1:45, maybe even 1:44 next year and gonna only improve from there in 2020.
The same would not happen that you can be sure of.
Centro was not in good shape way back when he raced Jakob. Jakob is also objectively much better than Burgin. 3:52 mile is a good time for a senior athlete. 1:47 is not I'm afraid. There are about 7/8 British guys running 1:45 right now and none of them could beat Murphy. Murphy handily dispatched the current UK champion at the weekend.
Murphy is in great shape right now. Your feelings are hugely misplaced.
There are some elites I'd agree with you on, maybe even someone as good as Nijel Amos because he's been struggling to find form this year despite his SB, but right now Murphy is looking good.
A 1:46 from a nearly 55s first lap is a different league to a 1:47 run in 52.6 then 55.
Burgin doesn't need hyping up. 1:47 solo in a championship final for a 16 year old is impressive enough. You don't need to say he would beat a 1:42 Olympic medalist who is in good form. It's silly.