Change Boston Marathon goal marathon pace?

Only reason I said to shoot for 10 seconds per mile slower on the first five miles is that even if you're trying to go that slow, you will most likely end up running faster. Especially a first timer. Which I agree, pace per mile on the first five miles is probably ideal. You just don't want to intentionally go out at pace, and then realize you're 20 or 30 seconds faster per mile, which is really easy to do. Disciplined running is key. I think it's harder to run disciplined if you're in corrals 1-4, and the crowd thins quicker. If you're corral 5 or back, the crowd will help keep you in check the first few miles.

Pray for a cool day with a tailwind. A good weather day is due. As previously pointed out, the last really good weather day at Boston was 2013. I've tried to PR at Boston the last two times I've run it, been in shape to do so, and like others have been thwarted by the weather (heat) each time.

Good luck. Do remember to build in a few seconds to kiss a girl at Wellesley and please let us know how your race turns out.

Your 2:52 seed sticks you in the 2nd corral probably. You'll have a tough time getting out better than 6:20's, even with the downhill. Probably a good thing as you absolutely have to keep it in your pants at the beginning.

So much is dependent on the weather--heat and wind. Last year was hot as balls. I felt I was in 2:41 shape but ran a conservative and solid 2:44. Year before I got utterly destroyed by the humidity going out in 1:18 and ran 2:5x (I don't even remember it was so damn bad).

One projection someone showed me was 20 mph tailwinds and 50 degrees, ala 2011. You could run 2:35 under those conditions (how you can see the weather this far in advance, in Boston no less, is beyond me. I put no stock in it). Or you could run 2:45 if it's like last year.

Your mileage is going to kick in here. Most old dudes like us are not doing +100 at all, let alone consistently. I would say your goal is to get to the hills, through in 1:19:30 if it's normal conditions, go to work and see what happens. You should be able to eat them up and fly off heartbreak to a sub 2:40. If you hit 20 in 2:03 even you can crush 5:55 on the way down into Boston if everything kicks in the way it should.

Bruin1996 wrote:

Hello Sage,

Thank you for your very detailed reply. I follow you on Strava and love following your training and racing: For the last 9 weeks I have run between 90-120 miles per week so average probably over 100 miles a week. I do run rolling hills and inclines on treadmills. I tried to do my 22 mile long run at a relatively even, manageable effort (making sure my HR stayed 150-160 and my breathing was never labored) so a little slower uphill and faster downhill.. 965 Feet total elevation gain.. and I did speed up the last 5 miles with a 5:59 and 5:41 split for my last 2 downhill miles.

Geez dude - this is a beast of a training run. Next time just kick out another 4.2 and set a new PR....

I know OP and follow him on Strava. He is in very good shape. In the beginning of our buildups we had a goal of sub 2:50. The only thing I have done over OP was run nearly 20 weeks of 100+ miles 114 average. sub 2:50 is still my goal. Don't mean to hijack your thread bro. But I also would like to get advice. I came down on my mileage a bit to do Tempo Work. Right now I have averaged about 81 miles the past 3 weeks. Each time I have done these long tempo runs they are getting faster. Last Saturday I did a 21 miler. Started out slow to warm up but got down to below MP for 13.1 miles. 6:24 average. The last 2 in 6:18,6:13 The week before that I did 20 Miles, 6:37 avg Last 3 miles 6:25,6:01,5:41. I too feel like I'm in Sub 2:50 shape. I start my taper next week.

Would like to get your thoughts if it's doable.

Cheers

I've run Boston the last 4 years and am taking a break to try a hobby jogger ultra race this year. First three years I tried going out at PR pace (2:20) and faded pretty hard in the last 10k. Last year I did it more as a training race and set a goal of running 10-15 seconds slower than PR pace for the first 10 miles and if I was feeling good still to gradually pick it up. Started in the mid 5:30s and even hit a few 5:40s. My brain was so antsy because it felt too easy but I had never tried to run conservatively there before and wanted to stick it out. Long story short I didn't speed up until around mile 19/20 and was so thrilled at feeling great heading up heartbreak that I averaged 5:16 for the last 5 miles. You may be a bit slower, but trust me my 3 bad Boston experiences are some of the worst experiences of my life, and my one good one last year is one of my favorite race experiences to date.

Run 10-15 sec slower than goal (which honestly for you based on those workouts should be closer to 2:40), and don't do any stepping on the gas until after the HM mark. People telling you to "bank time on the downhills" probably haven't run Boston before as that's a sure-fire way to feel awful by mile 16. When you hit the wall, you will lose double that banked time (see my 70-84 split from my first Boston)

Good luck!

A rare thread where everyone gives good advice and there's no sarcasm. It does sound like you're in 2:40 to 2:45 shape on a good day. I agree with the consensus advice, which I would say is don't try to bank too much time on the early downhills because it will beat up your legs. Still, you are likely to lose a couple of minutes on the uphills between 16-21, and it's hard to get that all back in the last five. So for me personally, a 1-2 minute positive split is about probably optimal, acknowledging that the winner is usually negative splitting.

I came to say, regarding the weather, that usually when it's cool, it's a tailwind. And usually when it's warm, it's a headwind. Some years, with an east wind, it's about 75 degrees from mile 10-21, and while the headwind is not too bad because of the buildings and people, you definitely feel it. The heat can wear you down if you come from a place with winter. I have sometimes taken a drink on one side of the road and then diagonalled to the other side for water to pour, as the aid stations are offset to reduce congestion. The best strategy in any weather is to think the race starts at 16 when you enter the Newton Hills, so don't press too hard before then.

And then, sometimes when it's an east wind, after you crest Heartbreak Hill at 21 miles, and you start the big downhill at Boston College, the temperature drops from 75-80 to about 50 because of the ocean breeze off the bay. And if your legs are beat, you might have trouble with the cold as you try to accelerate for the downhills. I have never run faster than goal pace the last 5 miles, at best I have maintained my average. But I am 58 and aiming for 3:00 to 3:10, weather dependent. You are much fitter than I.

So bottom line is, save a little something for the last 5 miles.

Good luck. I hope we get an epic fast year!

Also just to give you guys an Idea on my last 3 weeks. I follow Lydiard style training. So these last 3 weeks included hillwork and 2 long Tempos. +20K and +30K. For hill work first 2 weeks I used a 10% grade hill that tops out at 12%. It's about 450m long. Did 10 reps anywhere from high 1:40s down to high 1:30s. Just this week I switched to a shorter hill (about 200m maybe longer @ 3-4% grade) to do faster reps. averaged about 35s for 10 reps. Hill work is non-stop with jog down recovery.

Cheers,

I am running boston this year and possibly to break 2:40. (2:40 is by PR).

I see the OP said his last long run was 22 at 6:16 pace on rolling hills which is subjective 2:44 Marathon.

To OP, how hard of an effort was those 22? Was it 6:16 with nothing in the tank or 6:16, can finish at 6:16. Your workouts indicate a 2:40, but the biggest thing you should consider was the long run as those are short distance workouts. Half marathoners can hit this and crumble at mile 20.

Be honest with yourself and taper smart, I think you can run at least a 2:42. :)

Damn, you guys are making me feel lazy. Unless you're coming in overtrained or you just don't race well, i'd say 2:50 is a conservative goal for you too. My last Marathon was seconds over 2:50 (on a tougher course than Boston) and I know I couldn't sustain the training either of you have been doing.

I ran 2:47:00 in January and shooting for a 2:45 in Boston. It would be nice to set a big PR in Bean town. I've run the historic course four times now. (2:54, 2:58, 2:55, 3:11 last year in the heat) I've actually run way less miles than the OP but with similar workouts. (10 mile tempo @ 6:02 pace.....10 mile tempo @ 5:52 pace..........10 mile tempo @ 5:47 pace......half marathon tempo in 1:19:09 ) I've run some solid 18 milers at well. 7:00 flat on one and 6:37 pace on another. I'm still shooting for 6:15-18 effort the first half though.

derp wrote:

Damn, you guys are making me feel lazy. Unless you're coming in overtrained or you just don't race well, i'd say 2:50 is a conservative goal for you too. My last Marathon was seconds over 2:50 (on a tougher course than Boston) and I know I couldn't sustain the training either of you have been doing.

I'm far from being overtrained. If anything I have a ton more energy since I came down on my mileage. I made a commitment to chase this time. I'm up 4am everyday to get my main run in. Always ready to run. Rain or shine. Not a professional but why can't I reach my best potential? I have one more Long MP run this Saturday. I'll post the results.

20 weeks of 114 mpw? To run 2:50? Bro.....

Well 2:50 was the initial goal but I feel like I'm in far better shape than that.

RunninHot wrote:

First 5 Miles wrote:

20 weeks of 114 mpw? To run 2:50? Bro.....

Well 2:50 was the initial goal but I feel like I'm in far better shape than that.

Judging by these workouts and the mileage I would agree and say you definitely in much better shape than that. Out of curiosity, what kind of long MP run are you planning this weekend (roughly 2 weeks out)?

This post above has me excited.

If there's a tailwind, 6:20 first few miles will get you under 2:40. OP, I saw a guy from Corral 5 run 6:30's the first few miles and finish under 2:38. Don't stress about the first few miles or bank time.

Um. Please please please 20mph tailwinds. Praying for it. Those guys on the 2:30 Boston thread will be under for sure with those conditions. If there's 20mph tailwinds, I'm under 2:40 easy. If not, I'm 2:45. Heat + headwind, my goal is 2:48. Why? I've seen runners never recover going to the wall at a hot Boston marathon. They never ran the same, talking about low 2:40 guys.

Of course we can all get optimistic and excited about the weather, but in reality we won't know until about 48 hours out. People were predicting 2011 conditions last year within a week of the race - we all know how that turned out. Sorry to be a Debby Downer haha.

First 5 Miles wrote:

RunninHot wrote:

Well 2:50 was the initial goal but I feel like I'm in far better shape than that.

Judging by these workouts and the mileage I would agree and say you definitely in much better shape than that. Out of curiosity, what kind of long MP run are you planning this weekend (roughly 2 weeks out)?

18 miles to 30K Max. about 3 warm/up, 13 at goal pace or faster, 2 C/D. I have not done any track workouts so far but my taper does have some sharpening in it.

RunninHot wrote:

First 5 Miles wrote:

Judging by these workouts and the mileage I would agree and say you definitely in much better shape than that. Out of curiosity, what kind of long MP run are you planning this weekend (roughly 2 weeks out)?

18 miles to 30K Max. about 3 warm/up, 13 at goal pace or faster, 2 C/D. I have not done any track workouts so far but my taper does have some sharpening in it.

Sounds about right for a quality long run two weeks out. I would implement some faster running during the taper, but mainly keep doing what you're doing - clearly it's working.

I ran controlled for 17 miles and then picked up the pace a little for the last 5 miles with my last 2 downhill miles at 5:59 and 5:41. I felt I could have run a few more miles at sub-6:17 pace even after the fast finish and very likely could have continued at sub-6:17 if I didn’t pick up the pace.. it was a hard controlled tempo effort like what I plan to do at least up until Heartbreak Hill at Boston.