Farah already downgrading London expectations

Cottonshirt wrote:

Takinadump wrote: You don't go from being known as a very good runner at 25 to possibly being considered an all time great talent by 30. By the time you are 21 or so your potential is known unless you had not been doing serious training for very long up until that age.

the average (mean) age at which middle distance runners get their FIRST medal in a major championship, starts at 23 for the 400m and climbs to 25 for the 10000m.

the exact figures are: 400m 23.70, 800m 23.84, 1500m 24.25, 3000m 25.21, 5000m 25.75, 10000m 25.86

for 5000m the standard deviation is 3.69 so the "normal" range is from 22.05 - 29.44

Mo Farah was 23 years and 143 days old when he won his first medal, a silver at the 2006 European championships in Gothenburg. so he falls smack in the middle of the "normal" age for doing this.

for 10000m the standard deviation is 3.76 so the "normal" range is from 22.10 - 29.62.

Mo Farah was 27 years and 126 days old when he won his first 10000m medal, gold at the European championships in Barcelona in 2010. this is also inside the "normal" range for male middle distance runners.

by contrast, Mamo Wolde was 36 years and 123 days old when he won his only medal at 10000m, a silver at the Mexico olympics in 1968. and Bruce Kidd of Canada was just 19 years and 121 days old when he did the 5000m and 10000m double at the commonwealth games in 1962. these two make Farah look pretty normal, age wise, which he is.

cheers.

Takinadump wrote:

Cottonshirt wrote:

the average (mean) age at which middle distance runners get their FIRST medal in a major championship, starts at 23 for the 400m and climbs to 25 for the 10000m.

the exact figures are: 400m 23.70, 800m 23.84, 1500m 24.25, 3000m 25.21, 5000m 25.75, 10000m 25.86

for 5000m the standard deviation is 3.69 so the "normal" range is from 22.05 - 29.44

Mo Farah was 23 years and 143 days old when he won his first medal, a silver at the 2006 European championships in Gothenburg. so he falls smack in the middle of the "normal" age for doing this.

for 10000m the standard deviation is 3.76 so the "normal" range is from 22.10 - 29.62.

Mo Farah was 27 years and 126 days old when he won his first 10000m medal, gold at the European championships in Barcelona in 2010. this is also inside the "normal" range for male middle distance runners.

by contrast, Mamo Wolde was 36 years and 123 days old when he won his only medal at 10000m, a silver at the Mexico olympics in 1968. and Bruce Kidd of Canada was just 19 years and 121 days old when he did the 5000m and 10000m double at the commonwealth games in 1962. these two make Farah look pretty normal, age wise, which he is.

cheers.

Dude if you don't admit Farah's success is suspicious you are 100% a Farah jockrider. Say what you want and bring up nonsense about how early he won his first medal but I 100% guarantee that unless you are from the UK you had no idea who he was before he joined Salazar. He absolutely dominated after a long period of not even being a contender. Hell I just watched a documentary on Mottram and before a road 10k in central park he doesn't even mention Mo as a possible contender. And you bring up his 2006 silver medal but you fail to mention that it was a weak race and won in a pathetic 13:44 by Jesus España who outkicked Mo. Yeah it was a silver but take a heaping helping of salt with that one. He didn't even make the 5000 final in the 2008 Olympics. Give the full facts man.

Homonculus wrote:

Takinadump wrote:

You don't go from being known as a very good runner at 25 to possibly being considered an all time great talent by 30. By the time you are 21 or so your potential is known unless you had not been doing serious training for very long up until that age. Think about it. Historically he was going to end up a nobody at age 24 and now you have people attempting to debate that he's a better track athlete than Haile and Bekele. He's something like 3-20 vs Bekele. It's ridiculous and the transformation happened pretty rapidly. On the bigger stages he would rarely get mentioned at all and rightfully so when you're a long shot to even get on the podium.

At age 21, Chris Solinsky had a 5000 PR of 13:27 running for Jerry Schumacher at Wisconsin. The year he turned 25 his PR was 13:18. The year he turned 26 he improved to 12:55 and ran a 26:59 10,000.

At age 21, Farah had a 5000 PR of 13:38 running for St Mary’s College, Twickenham. After training with Alan Storey for three years, at age 25 his PR was 13:07. The year he turned 27 he improved to 12:57. (And that was before he went to train with Salazar.)

Somehow Farah is suspicious, but Solinsky is not?

Cottonshirt wrote:

Takinadump wrote: You don't go from being known as a very good runner at 25 to possibly being considered an all time great talent by 30. By the time you are 21 or so your potential is known unless you had not been doing serious training for very long up until that age.

the average (mean) age at which middle distance runners get their FIRST medal in a major championship, starts at 23 for the 400m and climbs to 25 for the 10000m.

the exact figures are: 400m 23.70, 800m 23.84, 1500m 24.25, 3000m 25.21, 5000m 25.75, 10000m 25.86

for 5000m the standard deviation is 3.69 so the "normal" range is from 22.05 - 29.44

Mo Farah was 23 years and 143 days old when he won his first medal, a silver at the 2006 European championships in Gothenburg. so he falls smack in the middle of the "normal" age for doing this.

for 10000m the standard deviation is 3.76 so the "normal" range is from 22.10 - 29.62.

Mo Farah was 27 years and 126 days old when he won his first 10000m medal, gold at the European championships in Barcelona in 2010. this is also inside the "normal" range for male middle distance runners.

by contrast, Mamo Wolde was 36 years and 123 days old when he won his only medal at 10000m, a silver at the Mexico olympics in 1968. and Bruce Kidd of Canada was just 19 years and 121 days old when he did the 5000m and 10000m double at the commonwealth games in 1962. these two make Farah look pretty normal, age wise, which he is.

cheers.

Takinadump wrote:

Cottonshirt wrote:

the average (mean) age at which middle distance runners get their FIRST medal in a major championship, starts at 23 for the 400m and climbs to 25 for the 10000m.

the exact figures are: 400m 23.70, 800m 23.84, 1500m 24.25, 3000m 25.21, 5000m 25.75, 10000m 25.86

for 5000m the standard deviation is 3.69 so the "normal" range is from 22.05 - 29.44

Mo Farah was 23 years and 143 days old when he won his first medal, a silver at the 2006 European championships in Gothenburg. so he falls smack in the middle of the "normal" age for doing this.

for 10000m the standard deviation is 3.76 so the "normal" range is from 22.10 - 29.62.

Mo Farah was 27 years and 126 days old when he won his first 10000m medal, gold at the European championships in Barcelona in 2010. this is also inside the "normal" range for male middle distance runners.

by contrast, Mamo Wolde was 36 years and 123 days old when he won his only medal at 10000m, a silver at the Mexico olympics in 1968. and Bruce Kidd of Canada was just 19 years and 121 days old when he did the 5000m and 10000m double at the commonwealth games in 1962. these two make Farah look pretty normal, age wise, which he is.

cheers.

Dude if you don't admit Farah's success is suspicious you are 100% a Farah jockrider. Say what you want and bring up nonsense about how early he won his first medal but I 100% guarantee that unless you are from the UK you had no idea who he was before he joined Salazar. He absolutely dominated after a long period of not even being a contender. Hell I just watched a documentary on Mottram and before a road 10k in central park he doesn't even mention Mo as a possible contender. And you bring up his 2006 silver medal but you fail to mention that it was a weak race and won in a pathetic 13:44 by Jesus España who outkicked Mo. Yeah it was a silver but take a heaping helping of salt with that one. He didn't even make the 5000 final in the 2008 Olympics. Give the full facts man.

vivalarepublica wrote:

Tyrone ReXXXing wrote:

Well at least you are equivocal, like so few others on here, about his possible doping.

Question: why did Carlos Lopes set all of his pr's at age 37/38, running much faster than he did 3, or, 8, or, 10, or 15 years before that? Is THAT normal?

And for the record, Renato said on here, that *before* Mo joined Alberto, he told Mo, after Mo's 12:57 I believe (or that season) that he thought Mo could be a world champion. He already saw that talent was blooming. Throw in a great coach, more miles, weight training, living in altitude houses while huffing synthetic "thin" air (and other gray area stuff), voila, you've got your world champion, several times over.

The great mystery, because of NOP's lack of transparency, is what changed when he moved from whatever he was doing over to the NOP. Maybe there is an interview or article detailing those changes, but I have not read it. Was he really training that badly?

Cottonshirt wrote:

vivalarepublica wrote: Next, the historical examples you provided are of tenuous connection to the modern age.

you only think that because you don't have any facts.

when Bruce Kidd did the double at the 1962 commonwealth games, he was the youngest medalist at 10000m in any major outdoor championship. and today, he still is. no one younger than him has won a medal of any colour at 10000m. this tends to prove that your point that the elite are getting younger, is false.

so if you didn't mean medalists, maybe you meant WR holders.

in which case here is a list of WR holders at 10000m, with their age at the first time they took the record.

Nov-1911 Jean Bouin (FRA) 22 y 330 d

Jul-1912 Hannes Kolehmainen (FIN) 22y 211 d

Jun-1921 Paavo Nurmi (FIN) 24 y 9 d

May-1924 Ville Ritola (FIN) 28 y 128 d

Jul-1937 Ilmari Salminen (FIN) 34 y 300 d

Sep-1938 Taisto Maki (FIN) 27 y 301 d

Aug-1944 Viljo Heino (FIN) 30 y 177 d

Jun-1949 Emil Zatopek (TCH) 26 y 265 d

Jul-1956 Sandor Iharos (HUN) 26 y 127 d

Sep-1956 Vladimir Kuts (URS) 29 y 217 d

Oct-1960 Pyotr Bolotnikov (URS) 30 y 221 d

Dec-1963 Ron Clarke (AUS) 26 y 300 d

Sep-1972 Lasse Viren (FIN) 23 y 43 d

Jul-1973 Dave Bedford (GBR) 23 y 195 d

Jun-1977 Samson Kimobwa (KEN) 21 y 288 d

Jun-1978 Henry Rono (KEN) 26 y 119 d

Jul-1984 Fernando Mamede (POR) 32 y 243 d

Aug-1989 Arturo Barrios (MEX) 26 y 249 d

Jul-1993 Richard Chelimo (KEN) 21 y 75 d

Jul-1993 Yobes Ondieki (KEN) 32 139 d

Jul-1994 William Sigei (KEN) 24 y 284 d

Jun-1995 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 22 y 48 d

Aug-1996 Salah Hissou (MAR) 24 y 220 d

Aug-1997 Paul Tergat (KEN) 28 y 66 d

Jun-2004 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) 23 y 74 days

anyone claiming to see a pattern in there, is deluding themself.

the average of these ages is 26 y 170 d. the average age of WR holders up to the point when the first African took the record, 26 y 357 d. average age of WR holders since the first African took the record, 26 y 259 d. so, yeah, in 45 years the average age of WR holders has come down 98 days. this is hardly a trend worth hanging your hat on. also, the current record holder, Bekele, is older than six other men on the list. Jean Bouin, Hannes Kolehmainen, Lasse Viren, Dave Bedford, Haile Gebrselassie and Kenenisa Bekele were all essentially the same age as each other when they first took the record despite them covering 100 years of athletics history. which means WR holders are not getting any younger either.

your claim that the elite are getting younger is false, at 10000m.

and to all those commenting on suspicions of illegal activity. I have no interest in debating with anyone whether athlete x, y, or z "is suspicious." I start from the perspective of believing that all top level elites are on drugs and you guys with your "suspicions" are just being naive. my only interest in this discussion is whether Farah's age makes him an outlier in his event, and the facts do not support the claim. he is, age wise, perfectly normal in all respects, and the elites, at 10000m, are not getting younger.

and, do you really need to have it pointed out to you, that the whole point of track and field athletics is to do something that no one else has done before. when Bannister ran the first sub-4 mile, that was unprecedented. when Jim Hines ran the first sub-10 100 metres, that was unprecedented. when Bubka made the first 6-metre pole vault, that was unprecedented. elite athletics is all about trying to do what was previously considered impossible. I don't see how you can possibly be a fan of athletics and simultaneously slam anyone for doing the one thing that athletes try to do.

cheers.

vivalarepublica wrote:

Meh, I'm done here, congrats you win.

My main point is that few athletes in the distance events have been basically unbeatable for so long as Farah from his late 20s to mid 30s on the track at the 5k/10k. The only comparable example I can think is is Yifter. And Perhaps the discussion should only include guys from the professional era, because the amateurs could not stick around as long, they had to move on with their lives.

It's entirely possible that Farah discovered his dormant speed and pioneered new training methods for 5k/10k guys in their 30s (along with Lagat). As you said, maybe he figured out how to do things that nobody else has done, which always garners suspicion.

You are cherry picking the facts and moving the goal posts as much, if not more, than myself. For example, you mention that no 10000m medalist has been younger than Bruce Kidd at a major champs, but that's a limited category. Kipchoge was world champ at 18 in the 5k in 2003, Bekele got silver at World XC in 2001 at 18 and won double World XC gold at 19, and Kiprop should have the 2007 1500m bronze at 18 and 2008 1500m gold at 19. A few guys have medaled at 20 (Cheptegei in 10k at 2017 London, Longosiwa in 5k at 2012 London).

I was never talking about WR progression but rather the depth of competition and how so many of the fast guys skew younger and nowhere near Farah's age during his dominance. Just look at the top lists for 5k and 10k, they are dominated by guys 25 and under, which many closer to 20 than 25. Farah is able to somehow reverse the effects of aging and beat all these young guys, even as he gets older, which is he complete opposite of other recent greats like Geb, Bekele, Kipchoge, etc.

There, that's plenty of facts for you. I'm done, I'm just spinning my wheels at this point.

Cottonshirt wrote:

you only think that because you don't have any facts.

when Bruce Kidd did the double at the 1962 commonwealth games, he was the youngest medalist at 10000m in any major outdoor championship. and today, he still is. no one younger than him has won a medal of any colour at 10000m. this tends to prove that your point that the elite are getting younger, is false.

so if you didn't mean medalists, maybe you meant WR holders.

in which case here is a list of WR holders at 10000m, with their age at the first time they took the record.

Nov-1911 Jean Bouin (FRA) 22 y 330 d

Jul-1912 Hannes Kolehmainen (FIN) 22y 211 d

Jun-1921 Paavo Nurmi (FIN) 24 y 9 d

May-1924 Ville Ritola (FIN) 28 y 128 d

Jul-1937 Ilmari Salminen (FIN) 34 y 300 d

Sep-1938 Taisto Maki (FIN) 27 y 301 d

Aug-1944 Viljo Heino (FIN) 30 y 177 d

Jun-1949 Emil Zatopek (TCH) 26 y 265 d

Jul-1956 Sandor Iharos (HUN) 26 y 127 d

Sep-1956 Vladimir Kuts (URS) 29 y 217 d

Oct-1960 Pyotr Bolotnikov (URS) 30 y 221 d

Dec-1963 Ron Clarke (AUS) 26 y 300 d

Sep-1972 Lasse Viren (FIN) 23 y 43 d

Jul-1973 Dave Bedford (GBR) 23 y 195 d

Jun-1977 Samson Kimobwa (KEN) 21 y 288 d

Jun-1978 Henry Rono (KEN) 26 y 119 d

Jul-1984 Fernando Mamede (POR) 32 y 243 d

Aug-1989 Arturo Barrios (MEX) 26 y 249 d

Jul-1993 Richard Chelimo (KEN) 21 y 75 d

Jul-1993 Yobes Ondieki (KEN) 32 139 d

Jul-1994 William Sigei (KEN) 24 y 284 d

Jun-1995 Haile Gebrselassie (ETH) 22 y 48 d

Aug-1996 Salah Hissou (MAR) 24 y 220 d

Aug-1997 Paul Tergat (KEN) 28 y 66 d

Jun-2004 Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) 23 y 74 days

anyone claiming to see a pattern in there, is deluding themself.

the average of these ages is 26 y 170 d. the average age of WR holders up to the point when the first African took the record, 26 y 357 d. average age of WR holders since the first African took the record, 26 y 259 d. so, yeah, in 45 years the average age of WR holders has come down 98 days. this is hardly a trend worth hanging your hat on. also, the current record holder, Bekele, is older than six other men on the list. Jean Bouin, Hannes Kolehmainen, Lasse Viren, Dave Bedford, Haile Gebrselassie and Kenenisa Bekele were all essentially the same age as each other when they first took the record despite them covering 100 years of athletics history. which means WR holders are not getting any younger either.

your claim that the elite are getting younger is false, at 10000m.

and to all those commenting on suspicions of illegal activity. I have no interest in debating with anyone whether athlete x, y, or z "is suspicious." I start from the perspective of believing that all top level elites are on drugs and you guys with your "suspicions" are just being naive. my only interest in this discussion is whether Farah's age makes him an outlier in his event, and the facts do not support the claim. he is, age wise, perfectly normal in all respects, and the elites, at 10000m, are not getting younger.

and, do you really need to have it pointed out to you, that the whole point of track and field athletics is to do something that no one else has done before. when Bannister ran the first sub-4 mile, that was unprecedented. when Jim Hines ran the first sub-10 100 metres, that was unprecedented. when Bubka made the first 6-metre pole vault, that was unprecedented. elite athletics is all about trying to do what was previously considered impossible. I don't see how you can possibly be a fan of athletics and simultaneously slam anyone for doing the one thing that athletes try to do.

cheers.