DII Regionals

Itsok wrote:

So having Malone wouldn't push Saginaw in? I'm sure this new system will take some time to figure out given that most schools at the D2 level won't budget for teams to travel across the country so it makes it harder to gauge what schools "deserve to be in". But I'm glad they've gone with 3 autos instead of 2. Should be interesting who they announce tomorrow.

I agree this should take some time for everyone to figure out how to work this system properly for racing plan. I believe this is why having 2 autos is better than 3. All these teams being discussed would be in the national meet, instead of at least 3 - 4 crummy auto teams from the 4 less competitive regions.

You are right. Would be Saginaw, not Malone.

Only the teams that had a direct loss to one of the teams under consideration cannot advance. If no H2H comparison can be made between two teams, a team does not get to advance because they beat one of the teams under consideration. You must find a direct comparison for each of teams compared each round. So although West Texas does not have a win over any of the other teams in consideration, they will move to the next criteria and so on until a comparison can be made. All you have done is eliminate a few teams from the comparison in your rounds. You must dig deeper to find a comparison and a winner amongst each pair. I will say that this was good work just not quite accurate.

I see. So, with that in mind, who advances?

What time are the bids supposed to be announced tomorrow?

5pm (ET)

So I just went through everything again, and what I got was much closer to this than anything else.

I have the following...

1) Simon Fraser

2) Marcos

3) Pomona

4) N. Michigan

5) Duluth

6) OBU

7) UCCS

8) DBU

Academy of Art and Southern Indiana. are first two out imo.

Simon Fraser is #1 because they beat Duluth, and N. Michigan straight up at Griak, where those two teams beat UCCS at Lewis crossover meet.

Marcos is the #2 team in, in my mind because they beat WWU, and San Diego by a bunch at regionals, when those two latter teams were very close in gap scores to N. Michigan at Griak and actually beat Duluth.

Pomona is #3 for similar reasons to Marcos. They beat WWU by a bunch at regional who beat a Duluth team that was close to N. Michigan at Lewis.

N. Michigan is #4 because they straight up beat Duluth, and UCCS.

Duluth is #5 because they beat UCCS at Lewis by a bunch.

OBU is #6 because they were close to Duluth at regionals.

I have UCCS at #7 and Dallas Baptist at #8 because honestly I don't even remember anymore. My brain is fried.

After Simon Fraser I took San Marcos and compared them to the other #4 teams from each other region. Through the above application I found no one better. Then I took Pomona, essentially once I picked a team, I took the next best team in the conference and tried to find common ground amongst the others left.

So how this is different than some of yours, is I was not reliant on "wins over other notable teams". When I took Fraser I compared them on common ground against the other #4 teams. No one else. Unless I needed it for comparison. So albeit Marcos hasn't beaten anyone really - I was only comparing Marcos against UCCS, N. Michigan and Minnesota Duluth. Based off the rules, I believe this is how the committee will look at things. I don't see how you can take another school over them with how San Diego and Western Washington compared to people at Griak.

Again, sorry for any confusion within my writing, I've been at this for far too long.

This would leave the following as individual qualifiers.

1) Verhees, west

2) Morrison, east

3) Benoit-Bucher

4) Carr, central

5) Workmann, atlantic

6) Hiatt, south east

7) Rufener, west

8) Mortensen, central

8) Renner, south central

I am under the impression that ties from the formula are decided by regional placement. Renner and Moretnsen are both 11th place finishers in region where I believe 5 teams will qualify.

Not saying this is correct by any means. I think these teams are logical, and really ends up sending the best squads (outside of the crappier regions). If the above turns out to be true, what the language should say, is - "we will attempt to find the best 4th place team in each region, then compare that regions 5th team to the other #4 teams from the other region." But instead they get very specific and the jargon is ridiculously confusing. I think it's just for insurance purposes. Again, that's only if I end up being right.

Some of you think it's more about quality wins over common opponents. If that's true in the universal sense then I guess I understand why only one West team would get a bid. But the west is easily the best region, and I am hoping that the confusing diction in reality leads to supporting the way the rankings have been all year.

Like I said who knows what is actually going to happen, but here's my crack at it.

Nice work! Have you taken a run at the men’s? We’ve been trying to figure out men’s individual qualifiers most of the evening and have gotten nowhere

Further investigation shows that Simon Fraser and Minnesota Duluth have respectively screwed their regions. SF lost to UMD and cannot make it past first round until UMD and Sioux Falls advance. However, UMD lost to Walsh, Bellarmine and Malone at Lewis and UCCS (SC # 10!!).

TFRRS will be most reliable for second tier but by eyeballing, here are my guesses. Until Walsh and Bellarmine advance, UMD cannot be looked at in second tier. WT may lose to both Walsh and Bellarmine in second tier but should defeat UMD and Saginaw. Saginaw and Malone though could still adavance over UMD as well as CSU-P and Dallas Baptist due to DBU/Rogers State wins over MIssouri Southern.

While I do not believe these are the best teams, SF poor performance at Griak and UMD at Lewis may result in the following:

Walsh

Bellarmine

West Texas A&M

CSU-Pueblo

Dallas Baptist

Rogers State

Saginaw Valley

Malone

This is terrible news for the West Region but they cannot advance until UMD & Sioux Falls do. Unfortunately I think UMD will lose out to the top 4 in Midwest and South Central. Again these are not the best teams but Simon Fraser really hurts the West with their direct loss to UMD. Point to be taken: losing hurts you more than winning helps you in this system.

In all honesty, DBU and Rogers state had a 5th/6th/7th and 4th/5th run really terrible at their region meet (nearly 2+ min slower from conf to reg than most everyone else good from that conf). Had they ran well, they would be in for sure (looked like top 15 teams for sure). Now, I wouldn't be confident they would be worthy but the system matters, so interested to see how it works.

End result is the top teams left won't all ways get into the national meet and there will still be several teams not worthy of a top 40 ranking competing at the national meet. This appears to be a better system than what was used before for at-large but am holding out judgement to see what actual end results are. 2 autos and 16 at-large would get this so much more right.

I just can't see how Oklahoma Baptist and Dallas Baptist are 'maybes' on the women's side. They both had great seasons and beat Pitt State which should give them a ton of secondary wins over a lot of teams in already in?

The bottom line is that it should not be this difficult in knowing who should be in the meet. I think the committee has failed us in that regard. Teams are sitting here two days out from Regionals and still have no idea if the season is over or not.

It is annoying that there is a lot of confusion but there is the possibility that after the team qualifiers are announced, the system will be much easier to understand and plan for. With anything new, there is a learning curve and this should be no different. Isn't Div 1 a waiting game as well, to some extent? Isn't Div 3 in the same boat? I certainly don't enjoy the waiting, as the system in the past was great in that regard, but it didn't give a fair idea of where regions were currently were at. I am glad we won't have one of the weak regions getting a 4th team in because the one quality team from that region placed in the top 8 the previous year.

If this were DI we would have the official "I've cracked the code" list and we'd know who was in?

Anyone 'sure' about their predictions?

Anyone out there really know how it works and know who will be in?

Where did they beat Pitt?

All of these programs had great seasons. I have both of the Baptist schools in, but the way the rules appear - they are generally only comparing four teams against each other at a time. So although some schools had what appear to be "solid wins", I don't think they count for much in the sense that they aren't taking all of the possible teams and then counting "wins". They are looking at four teams, trying to find common ground, then picking one, then repeating.

I could be wrong.

That's whats so crazy. If you take the entire field and look at "quality wins and such", you probably end up with the midwest having 5-6 teams in for the women and the west only 1. Which is ridiculous as the West is stacked. You'd essentially solely be giving credit to teams that flew across the country and that's it. If you are matching up teams amongst seeds. 1 vs 1. 4 vs 4. then 5 vs 4...e.tc. I don't see how the West doesn't get in 6 squads, and almost 7 with Academy of Art.

I don't think in a match up style you can take any #5 seed or Marcos. Not when Fraser did what they did at Griak, and more importantly, WWU and UCSD beating a bunch of schools and narrowly losing to Northern Michigan. I can maybe see Northern Michigan over Pomona, but using the same logic I actually think Pomona should be third team in.

If I'm right, Marcos and Pomona need to get on the phone this evening and call up WWU and UCSD and probably Fraser and say, "thank you we love you. "

Nah man, no brain power left. I had more ties to the women's situation. Not going to do the men's, but I do absolutely feel for ya if you are on one of those teams, an individual, or just a fan waiting to find out. This is really stressful for everyone waiting I imagine.

Dallas Baptist and Oklahoma Baptist beat Pitt at the Missouri Southern Stampede. Pitt only ran 4 of their top 7 there, but that still counts as an A team.

Anyone know what time this comes out or where to find anywhere that says it?

I just don’t think Pitt is a common opponent. Obu, dbu, end up getting compared against the likes of UCcs, Duluth, and academy of art. I don’t see a situation where the committee will look at those two schools and notice the win agasimt Pitt. But I do believe they are in. If the committee looks at everyone at ONCE, then they are probably even more in for reasons that you state.

NCAA website says it will be a press release at 5pm (ET)