Well we're less than two weeks out and this was the first weekend it seems like we finally got an solid idea of how things might play out.
Men's side: It looks like DeLuca (Cornell) and Monogue (Penn) have shown the most consistency of anyone in the league so far (of course Princeton's top guys really raced for the first time this past weekend. I'd favor either of the first two because they both seem like more strength oriented runners so they should favor a tough hilly VCP layout, where as Lundy, Kauppila, and Paulson are more 5k and below types. The only question mark with DeLuca is that since his incredible run for 4th as a freshman he hasn't really put it all together at Heps like his first go around, but not better time than senior year to outdo himself. No idea what is up with Columbia's trio. Thomas ran well early, then DNS @ Indiana and outside top 100 @ Wisco so definitely losing some momentum he might have been carrying over from track, and then Vasbinder and Zabilski don't look to be in the same shape that got them to NCAA's last year, but I guess you can't discount home field advantage. Finally, if Mahoney from Brown can run like he did at Boston maybe he challenges. No one from Yale, Dartmouth, or Harvard really seems like a contender. And I guess Penn is the favorite on the team side? Princeton seems solid after this weekend, but only one race so no real certainty there. And Columbia seems to be fading at the wrong time again. Overall the men's side just seems to be really down compared to the last few years.
Women's side: After this weekend it looks like Crosby from Columbia has stamped her name as favorite based simply off results this season. Three big time runs (one of which was a win at VCP). Of course the return of former champion Curham does add some intrigue. Also Curham might do a bit better as a strength runner at VCP compared to Crosby who's a steepler so she might make things interesting especially since Crosby will have the pressure to get a low stick for her fellow Lions who look like the favorites now. It really just comes down to how fit is Curham after taking last year off?
If she is as fit as two years ago than I would say she's the favorite, but her result this past weekend, even if it was just a rust-buster, shows she might be in quite the same shape. The only other lady who seems like she might mix it up with these two would be Masterson from Yale who will want to battle with Crosby for team points.
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Vanny Park wrote:
Well we're less than two weeks out and this was the first weekend it seems like we finally got an solid idea of how things might play out.
Men's side: It looks like DeLuca (Cornell) and Monogue (Penn) have shown the most consistency of anyone in the league so far (of course Princeton's top guys really raced for the first time this past weekend. I'd favor either of the first two because they both seem like more strength oriented runners so they should favor a tough hilly VCP layout, where as Lundy, Kauppila, and Paulson are more 5k and below types.
I'd favor Lundy over DeLuca or Monogue. He's seemed to be more of a 5k+ guy in college. Had a really good frosh year in XC which included a 3rd at the mid Atlantic regional last year. Plus he's got as much experience as anyone at VCP considering he went to high school at Fordham prep. -
I'd agree Lundy is the favorite. Looked very controlled at Princeton the other day but sources said he collapsed and passed out after the race? Unsure of the truth behind that. I expect Monogue, DeLuca and Thomas to duke it out with him though.
Team side, Penn has run the most consistently. Can't discount Columbia at home, but they almost blew it last time at VCP in the last couple K. In addition, that year (2015) they ran very well at Wisco whereas this year they did quite awful. Princeton has a strong team and showed it at their home invite, but we don't know how well they'll fare when off their (very) flat home course.
Also, O'Toole ran a very good race this weekend and scored for Princeton but I don't see him contending as well on a course like VCP.
Regardless, I expect a hard fought battle between those three schools. -
HepsXC schedule on 10/27
Men at 11am
Women at noon
Awards at 1pm -
Thanks, C/M!
Sad to say, looks like I might have to miss this one. These Friday meets kill me at work. -
lease wrote:
Thanks, C/M!
Sad to say, looks like I might have to miss this one. These Friday meets kill me at work.
I understand. My chances of attending are also low due to it being on a Friday and NYC being over 3 hrs away from where I live. (Sigh)
There also won’t be any live streaming of the meet via Ivy League Network. Shame , because I would buy that to follow the races -
Predicted team finishes for men/women?
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My thoughts
Men:
main battle will be between Columbia and Penn. Penn has been more consistent this season while Columbia can have the faster front runners (if they are having a good day)
dark horse - Princeton, now that Lundy is back.
Individual title - Dominic Deluca of Cornell
Women:
My favorite is Columbia, particularly with Nell Crosby as a potential individual winner. Their team had a strong result at Wisco last weekend.
dark horse - Dartmouth. They had some strong showings at Battle in Beantown and Pre-Nationals (they edged out Princeton by 3 points and had a 6 second faster spread than Princeton, even with Princeton having Curham back in running form).
Individual title - Crosby vs Curham
Now, VCP is considered a more technical XC trail than the majority of courses out there now, correct? I've never been there and all I know is what I've seen from pictures or previous discussions. Can anyone describe the course(s)? The women will do the 6k course while the men will do the 5 mile course. -
I cant believe I'm saying this, but Brown is probably the favorite on the mens side
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Yams wrote:
I cant believe I'm saying this, but Brown is probably the favorite on the mens side
I think Brown can be top 3. -
ICYMI: Columbia and Dartmouth women are both ranked, #24 and #30 respectively. Penn and Princeton men, as well as Princeton women, are receiving votes.
And, based on the Flotrack Kolas release from earlier this week, the Columbia women and Penn men will make the NCAA cut due to their #2 regional rankings. No at-large berths at this time.
I am having a hard time seeing another women's team making the Kolas cut for NCAAs. The Princeton women are in a tough region with #9 PSU and #15 Villanova, teams that beat Princeton at the National Open last weekend, so a top-2 finish in the Mid-Atlantic is a very low probability for them unless one of those teams bomb AND Princeton has a phenomenal day. I think Dartmouth would need a top 2 finish as well, but I think if they won HepsXC over Columbia next week, that will give them a few more points (but I do not see the Lady Lions losing on their home course).
I think the Columbia men could get a chance of redemption with a successful HepsXC, and they can contend for #2 in the Northeast. The current #2 is Iona, who Columbia beat at VCP back in September. At the Mid-Atlantic region, it will be a great battle between Penn and Princeton for #2. -
Yams wrote:
I cant believe I'm saying this, but Brown is probably the favorite on the mens side
I haven't been paying that close attention but no one I've talked to thinks Brown is going to win it. They may have relatively their best team in a while, but winning? They are going to need A LOT of help.
Maybe I'll write a preview this week but Brown definitely isn't the favorite.
They lost to Cornell - who isn't a favorite - in the first meet of the year. In their 2nd meet, they lost to Indiana who just lost to Penn.
In their last meet, they placed zero in the top 75 at Pre-Nats which seems to indicate they don't have someone who will contend for a top 5 standing. If you don't have a couple front-runners, it's very hard to win heps unless you have a super tight pack and they had like a 35 second spread at Pre-Nats.
I imagine it's Penn, Princeton or Columbia. -
Friday forecast per weather underground for NYC: sunny, high of 64. Rain on Tuesday but there should be enough time for it to dry out for Friday.
If only NYC was closer and I could justify going there for only 3 hours... -
C/M Runner wrote:
Now, VCP is considered a more technical XC trail than the majority of courses out there now, correct? I've never been there and all I know is what I've seen from pictures or previous discussions. Can anyone describe the course(s)? The women will do the 6k course while the men will do the 5 mile course.
almost all fast, hard packed dirt. Have to step over railroad ties on many sections tho.
Flat, fast first mile or two. Then into the back hills, which are quite steep up and down. That's where the race usually breaks. In the last mile of the 5m course there is a fairly long, tough uphill and matching downhill. Then a long flat fast 1000 meters to the finish.
Not sure what the 6k course is but the back hills are always the big factor.
It's a hill runner's course no matter the distance. -
go green wrote:
almost all fast, hard packed dirt. Have to step over railroad ties on many sections tho.
Flat, fast first mile or two. Then into the back hills, which are quite steep up and down. That's where the race usually breaks. In the last mile of the 5m course there is a fairly long, tough uphill and matching downhill. Then a long flat fast 1000 meters to the finish.
Not sure what the 6k course is but the back hills are always the big factor.
It's a hill runner's course no matter the distance.
From what I've researched, I believe the 6km course will feature an extra loop around the open fields before going into the woods. -
Conference polls now open where you can tell us who will win Heps on the men's and women's
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/10/top-10-ncaa-xc-teams-country-2017-ncaa-cross-country-fan-polls-open/ -
Hey Rojo - anyone from LRC going to VCP for Friday or will you be covering it remotely?
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C/M Runner wrote:
Hey Rojo - anyone from LRC going to VCP for Friday or will you be covering it remotely?
I was planning on coming but then forgot my mom is coming into town. My 15 year streak was going to be snapped. But then my mom called last night and said she is sick. So I'll be there. (Then she called back this morning and said she's feeling better but I asked her to come next week).
I don't know if I'll be covering it at all. I mean sometimes I take photos for a photo album but generally I go as a fan. -
Glad your mom is better.
Is it possible you could do some color race commentary via Twitter, that could help us who cannot make it who wish to be there... (I cannot mentally justify up to 6-8 hours of driving for being there for only 3 hours, even though I really wish I could make it).
Along those lines, the live results link is available on LeoneTiming.com, as well as other info on HTC.
http://hepstrack.com/blog/2017/10/26/only-one-more-night-to-go/
Also, when does the LRC polling close? -
Will there be a Heps preview today before the race?
