Detector Dude wrote:
Come on, that is not an honest question.
Yes it is. If he tells me that he can time the market, and he can do it consistently, and he's willing to put his own money where his mouth is, and in doing all of this he's made himself a rich man, then I'm on board. That would convince me. I'm convinced by results.
But if he's not rich, it either means:
- he can't time the market
- he can't do it consistently (which is the same thing)
- he's not willing to wager with his own money (so why should we trust him?)
That would basically invalidate his argument.
Now, perhaps you will say - "Being rich is not the only measure of success. He just needs to consistently beat the market, not necessarily to blow the market out of the water." I'd be willing to listen to that argument. Ghost, did you time the Great Recession correctly? Did you take your money out at the top, then put it back in at the bottom? Did you correctly bet on Citigroup when it was selling for pennies on the dollar? Give us your success stories that prove we should listen to you.
Because I do put my money where my mouth is with index investing. I don't try to beat the market but I've enjoyed nice market returns for years.