In total have done 7 runs over 17 miles - including the marathon I paced in 4.45.
Last long run was ave pace 7.05 overall with last 4 miles something like 6.15 - 6.45 pace. Course was undulating hence the big range.
Usually I can pick up the pace to MP (2.50 pace) + 5-10 seconds in the last 3rd or last half of long run without falling to my knees at the end.
In my experience you have to be closer to 120 in the half to have a crack at 249. Since you seem to want to use the oft failed "go for it" marathon strategy I would normally suggest planning for a slight negative split. So, go out at 1:25:30 and negative split. That's if you are fully trained with good mileage and specific workouts, which you are not. Since it's your first thon, you should plan for 253. Chances are you won't blow up and run 3:10, walking the last 4 miles and you'll have something to build on to properly train for 2:49 next time
Yeah to be honest I'm starting to think you're correct. A time in the 2.52-2.53 range is certainly no disgrace on my mileage and going for 2.49 might just destroy the race for me.
Would you not consider a long run with last 8 - 10 miles at 6.35 - 6.40 pace specific enough for 2.49?
Ave. Joe wrote:
Yeah to be honest I'm starting to think you're correct. A time in the 2.52-2.53 range is certainly no disgrace on my mileage and going for 2.49 might just destroy the race for me.
Would you not consider a long run with last 8 - 10 miles at 6.35 - 6.40 pace specific enough for 2.49?
That's one ingredient, long runs finishing at mp to mp + 15 seconds. You may be missing 1 or 2 others in the witch's brew that is marathon training. Thus my more conservative advice.
Ave. Joe wrote:
Yeah to be honest I'm starting to think you're correct. A time in the 2.52-2.53 range is certainly no disgrace on my mileage and going for 2.49 might just destroy the race for me.
Would you not consider a long run with last 8 - 10 miles at 6.35 - 6.40 pace specific enough for 2.49?
No, I don't think any particular workout indicates much of anything. Consistent high volume is a better indicator than anything. I'd rather start a marathon with 12 weeks of consistent high volume and zero marathon specific workouts than I would start a marathon with 12 weeks of perfect workouts with low volume.
What are the other 1-2 ingredients?
Good luck to you. I'm looking to break 1:25 in the hm before i segway to the full M. Hopefully by early 2018 I'll be training for the full.
Segway would be one of the easiest was to complete a full marathon I can think of.