NameStolenAgain wrote:
You don't yet understand that 538 doesn't do polls? You are more ignorant that we all thought,
No s/he's not.
NameStolenAgain wrote:
You don't yet understand that 538 doesn't do polls? You are more ignorant that we all thought,
No s/he's not.
agip wrote:
GA is going nuts!
Nate now has the R/Loeffler v. D/Warnock seat at 64% likely for the Dem. That is wild. That gives the Dems some breathing room on some close senate races in NC and ME.
54% in the presidential race, for Biden.
Fool's gold. Democrats never win Georgia runoffs. I give Ossoff a better chance in his senate race than Warnock in his, even though Warnock is the better candidate. Runoffs strongly favor the candidate who can turn out retired folks who don't have to work.
We could pick up both seats, but the reality is that both will probably lose.
A Biden victory is quite possible though. I give him a better shot in Georgia than either of the senate candidates.
breit leit wrote:
Consider me a pessimist based on everyone else's predictions, but...
279 Biden
259 Trump
I too am a member of the 300 For Neither Club. For some reason 290/248 keeps resonating, but I don't know in whose favor. Either candidate has a shot at winning.
For the senate
Republicans get Alabama back with the college football coach.
Dems to flip:
Colorado
Maine
Arizona
North Carolina
Iowa
A net gain of 4 to make it 51-49 Dems on Jan 3.
I don't get that 64% Dem favored to win in Georgia. I think that's just the chance of winning a plurality while 2 Republicans split votes which means nothing if he doesn't get 50%.
I think the eventual Republican will win in January.
L L wrote:
I don't get that 64% Dem favored to win in Georgia. I think that's just the chance of winning a plurality while 2 Republicans split votes which means nothing if he doesn't get 50%.
I think the eventual Republican will win in January.
is any of us african american?
My hunch is that the black community in GA has come together in some way...and it hasnt' elsewhere.
I have no evidence, but the numbers out of GA stand out compared to its peers. Warnock is Black, obvi.
GA might have the highest per capita number of Blacks, and there is certainly a Black political culture there.
MS might have higher Blacks per capita, but its close. And MS doesnt' have a Black capital like Atlanta.
agip wrote:
johnny99 wrote:
It will be interesting to see what happens if 1) Trump gets re-elected, 2) the Dems take the Senate, and 3) a SC vacancy opens up next year.
Do the Dems sit on Trump's nomination for 4 years? That's basically the precedent that Mitch McConnell has laid down.
yeah I think that supreme court seats will go unfilled, next time the WH and Senate are from different parties. The court will shrink.
The moonshot is a change in structure...there are many proposals on the table to end lifetime tenure and allow one pick per 4 year prez term. Would be so much better.
A "life time" (good behaviour in the constitution, article iii) appoint could be help while also limiting the term of a SCOTUS can serve. Justice should be limited to staggered 8 or 12 year terms. Every 4 years two rotate off of the SCOTUS and down to a lower court as an active judge for life with the title of emeritus justice. The next level down are the 13 Courts of Appeals. And below that are the ~100 District Courts. An emeritus justice would be allowed to pick the lower court they would like to serve on. That would be a privilege for serving on the SCOTUS that currently does not exist. They would also maintain their SCOTUS pay level to be consistent with what the article iii requires.
agip wrote:
L L wrote:
I don't get that 64% Dem favored to win in Georgia. I think that's just the chance of winning a plurality while 2 Republicans split votes which means nothing if he doesn't get 50%.
I think the eventual Republican will win in January.
is any of us african american?
My hunch is that the black community in GA has come together in some way...and it hasnt' elsewhere.
I have no evidence, but the numbers out of GA stand out compared to its peers. Warnock is Black, obvi.
GA might have the highest per capita number of Blacks, and there is certainly a Black political culture there.
MS might have higher Blacks per capita, but its close. And MS doesnt' have a Black capital like Atlanta.
Warnock (D) is up to 80 MFing% likely on 538.
This is kinda earthshaking.
Here is the updated WI poll from Trafalgar. It's shows a whopping 0.4 point lead for Biden.
johnny99 wrote:
Nebraska has 5 EVs. 2 are awarded based on the statewide winner. The other 3 are awarded by congressional district. It looks like the state and 2 of the CDs are safely red, but NE 2 could go blue. So I'm guessing that's why he was there.
Seems not worth his time to me.
Flagpole wrote:
johnny99 wrote:
Nebraska has 5 EVs. 2 are awarded based on the statewide winner. The other 3 are awarded by congressional district. It looks like the state and 2 of the CDs are safely red, but NE 2 could go blue. So I'm guessing that's why he was there.
Seems not worth his time to me.
I submit that you are likely correct as to why he went there though.
Although I think the margin in WI will be larger, I believe Trafalgar gets it right here. Biden will win WI.
agip wrote:
agip wrote:
is any of us african american?
My hunch is that the black community in GA has come together in some way...and it hasnt' elsewhere.
I have no evidence, but the numbers out of GA stand out compared to its peers. Warnock is Black, obvi.
GA might have the highest per capita number of Blacks, and there is certainly a Black political culture there.
MS might have higher Blacks per capita, but its close. And MS doesnt' have a Black capital like Atlanta.
Warnock (D) is up to 80 MFing% likely on 538.
This is kinda earthshaking.
Back down to 64% likely for Warnock. Must have been a glitch at 538.
But still. That’s a big number.
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Why is there all this interest in WI all of the sudden? Every single poll for a long time gives Biden the win by a good margin, that over 30 polls where not even one gives Trump a chance.
I think it's just a poll which is probably an outlier
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
In what universe does Nate Plastic really think Trump would lose WI by 17? Pay no attention to that WI poll. It's a D+4. Pure BS. (It was D+0 in 2018 and D+1 in 2016).
Nick Silver does not think that Trump will lose WI by 17 points.
He just talks about a poll which had this outcome.
It helps, if you read the full thing first before you make assumptions.
The part I bolded above is beyond Rigged's ability. Everyone and their brother has told this fool to do this many times over, and he never does. The only reasonable conclusion is that he is incapable. Could be a learning disability or an attention issue. Those two things don't preclude him from being a dumba$$ though...just to be clear.
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
conservative straw man tactic wrote:
Not this one. Are you capable of reading?
Nate Plastic includes this ridiculous poll in his model. The balding idiot is smoking crack and is losing what little credibility he has left by the day.
Whereas you never had any credibility because you make blatantly false statements like "Nate Silver thinks Trump will lose WI by 17".
NameStolenAgain wrote:
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
In what universe does Nate Plastic really think Trump would lose WI by 17? Pay no attention to that WI poll. It's a D+4. Pure BS. (It was D+0 in 2018 and D+1 in 2016).
You don't yet understand that 538 doesn't do polls? You are more ignorant that we all thought,
Hey, don't lump me in with that statement. Rigged is EXACTLY as ignorant as I thought. He is outrageously stupid and ignorant to the nth degree. I guess I haven't made myself clear there. So that there is no more lack of clarity...Rigged is a dumba$$. He does not avail himself of facts and is therefore ignorant. If there were a scale of ignorance, he would be on the very high end of ignorant. Fat Hurts just asked him if he were smart enough to feed himself. I have thought the same thing. I hope that clears that up for you.
In line with 538's advice not to take any polls in the last few days very seriously, I will make this the last of my daily checks on The Gap, which measures the difference (as determined by multiple polls) between the President's Approval and Disapproval ratings. It currently stands at 10.4 percentage points.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
Rigged for Hillary wrote:
Here is the updated WI poll from Trafalgar. It's shows a whopping 0.4 point lead for Biden.
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/wi-pres-102520/
Not ONE of the last 33 polls in WI favor Trump, with many giving Biden 9-17%
Flagpole wrote:
L L wrote:
The Barrett confirmation was fine as process.
The hypocrisy of blocking Garland is the big issue.
I thinks Republicans have effectively amended the Constitution to portray that in order for a Supreme Court Justice to be confirmed from this point forward, both the President and the majority of the Senate must be of the same party.
I agree completely. While I think Barrett isn't really qualified, the Republicans have every right to seat her and in fact a duty to seat someone. Garland should have had the same opportunity of course.
Somehow the SC needs to be made apolitical. I do not know how to do that, but right now things are not good (even before Barrett).
I actually agree with Flagpole on this. It is just a travesty at how politicized the Supreme Court has become.
Sally Vix wrote:
Flagpole wrote:
I agree completely. While I think Barrett isn't really qualified, the Republicans have every right to seat her and in fact a duty to seat someone. Garland should have had the same opportunity of course.
Somehow the SC needs to be made apolitical. I do not know how to do that, but right now things are not good (even before Barrett).
I actually agree with Flagpole on this. It is just a travesty at how politicized the Supreme Court has become.
Somehow find a way to bottle your moment of clarity. Think about it. What have you done differently today? Did you get more sleep last night? More sun? Did you eat better today? Maybe you DIDN'T eat something you normally do that makes you crazy on other days? Put some thought into it!