Jordan Hasay debut predictions -- Boston 2017

Clint said there are two kinds of people in this world, those with loaded guns and those who dig.

frustrated runner wrote:

I used IAAF tables to see what the male equivalents for her times are, if anybody is curious.

1500: 4:07.70 -> 1145 points -> 3:37

5000: 15:28.56 -> 1109 points -> 13:28

10k: 31:39.67 -> 1158 points -> 27:43

10 miles: 52:49 -> 1149 points -> 45:59

These convert to the following women's marathon times:

1145 -> 2:28.47

1109 -> 2:32.27

1158 -> 2:27:29

1149 -> 2:28:23

Interpret the numbers however you want.

There you go. Just the facts. Since Boston isn't always a fast course, a good race would be 228-232. Molly Huddle ran 228 in her debut and I think most think she can go much faster.

jkppkl;k wrote:

Maybe they'll get a tailwind and she fashions her hair into a sail, WR! baby.

No dude, she needs to go get rid of her hair. The extra weight she's carrying and aerodynamic efficiency loss must be huge. Get a pixie and maybe sniff 2:20

I used IAAF tables to see what the male equivalents for her times are, if anybody is curious.

1500: 4:07.70 -> 1145 points -> 3:37

5000: 15:28.56 -> 1109 points -> 13:28

10k: 31:39.67 -> 1158 points -> 27:43

10 miles: 52:49 -> 1149 points -> 45:59

These convert to the following women's marathon times:

1145 -> 2:28.47

1109 -> 2:32.27

1158 -> 2:27:29

1149 -> 2:28:23

Interpret the numbers however you want.[/quote]

The way I read this is that these numbers predict her career Marathon PR.

If you use McMillian, Vdot, IAAF tables, Purdy, and a 2:29 and change guess from the pizza delivery guy, you'll average out around 2:29:20.

My questions are --

Can she marathon as well as she can run shorter races?

Can she PR on the Boston course?

Will she run her marathon PR in her first race?

Do any of these predictive models have real value predicting marathon ability from shorter races?

And are they better than the Pizza delivery guys guess ?

If she opens up with a sub 2:35 come Patriots day I'll say she had a wonderful first marathon.

My prediction:

She'll be wise to target getting the USChamps Marathon Q time in this race.

2:37:12-2:39:36

If they're at her door it would be for a lot less money and again it would be like Mary Cain - name recognition from high school vs anything she has done since. For running sponsors want people on the international scene. Her national 10 mile championship was about as competitive as a local road race. What has she done at Worlds - indoor or out? Has she ever made a world team? She isn't moving up to the marathon because she's having such an outstanding 5k and 10k pro career.

Another birdie wrote:

Has she ever made a world team? .

She was 12th at World 10,000m in 2013

In 2014 she had the 5th fastest time IN THE WORLD at 10,000m

Are you really that stupid?

Also nobody cares about 10k. The money is in the big marathons.

If Nike was smart, they would have already had a Jordan Hasay shoe. Probably wouldn't do as well as that other Jordan that played basketball but would be wildly popular with the female runners.

If Hasay was smart, she would stick to 1 marathon a year and continue to work on the 10k.

Twi lite zone wrote:

She has literally done nothing since high school. If she didn't have that prep career we wouldn't even know her. Anyone thinking she goes sub 2:30 is crazy.

Anyone who doesn't know what 'literally' means and how to use it is crazier. I think the 31:28 would put her on the radar of any real fan of the sport.

Cheers.

Brothers cousin uncle is my... wrote:

Twi lite zone wrote:

She has literally done nothing since high school. If she didn't have that prep career we wouldn't even know her. Anyone thinking she goes sub 2:30 is crazy.

Anyone who doesn't know what 'literally' means and how to use it is crazier. I think the 31:28 would put her on the radar of any real fan of the sport.

Cheers.

Typo. 31:39

Another birdie wrote:

Her national 10 mile championship was about as competitive as a local road race.

I typed "local 10 mile race" into google and the first to come up was the Monaghan 10 mile. 52:49 would have beat ALL the guys and the first woman by over 10 minutes.

Brothers cousin uncle is my... wrote:

She has literally done nothing since high school. If she didn't have that prep career we wouldn't even know her. Anyone thinking she goes sub 2:30 is crazy.

That is completely demeaning to say as she has done plenty since high school. Irrespective of whether or not she had that prep career, she would still be well known in the US. She has consistently competed in national championships, US Oly trials, US elite road races etc.

Yes, she is easily capable of running sub 2:30.

It's more demeaning that people on these boards act like she is one of the best American distance runners when so many women have done so much more and don't get 10% of the publicity. So Mary Cain has done better than her at Worlds. No way she has come close to the expectations people had for her as a prep star which I agree is the reputation she continues to live off of.

No no really wrote:

It's more demeaning that people on these boards act like she is one of the best American distance runners when so many women have done so much more and don't get 10% of the publicity.

She IS one of the best just not THE best.

Does everybody think JR is the best race car driver? He's probably the most popular. Hasay is a fantastic role model for the sport and deserves all the good publicity she gets.

When one of the top 3 finishers wasn't even a professional runner than yes her title didn't come against many of the top pros in the sport.

Gwen Rosemary Jorgensen (born April 25, 1986 in Waukesha, Wisconsin) is an American professional triathlete.

triathlete : an athlete who competes in a triathlon

Triathlon:an athletic contest that is a long-distance race consisting of three phases (as swimming, bicycling, and running

She gets paid to run.

2nd place was a 3 time national champion this year (25k,20k,5k)

4th place...Sara Hall (née Bei; born April 15, 1983 in Santa Rosa, California) is a professional American middle distance runner.

10th place Stephanie Rothstein Bruce Professional runner for Oiselle, HokaOneOne NAZ Elite,

Field looked pretty deep to me.

Sara Hall and Stephanie Bruce is considered a deep field? Maybe 5-10 years ago (but honestly not sure then.) Don't think either has broke 2:30 and that third place finisher was over 2:40 in her debut (but again not a runner so actually not bad coming off a Rio gold in the tri.) I think Hasay is even more realistic about her disappointing pro results than most of the posters on this board.

Not in awhile wrote:

Sara Hall and Stephanie Bruce is considered a deep field? Maybe 5-10 years ago

Sara Hall just ran a 2:30 marathon. Jordan Hasay beat Hall by 44 seconds.

2:31 or dropout

Hope she succeeds..... wrote:

No no really wrote:

It's more demeaning that people on these boards act like she is one of the best American distance runners when so many women have done so much more and don't get 10% of the publicity.

She IS one of the best just not THE best.

Does everybody think JR is the best race car driver? He's probably the most popular. Hasay is a fantastic role model for the sport and deserves all the good publicity she gets.

Thank you.