I thought I could easily win a local turkey trot in 16:30 - 17:00 range, as winning local times are typically around 17:30. I did exactly what someone on the first page of this thread said to do - I went out with the lead group at an easy pace and thought I would just sit/kick at the end for the win. So, at about 4K I decide that it is time to ditch the last 2 guys still with the group. As I start to speed up, another guy (who surely had the same plan as me) freakin' blows us all away. Good luck.