New Yorker: How Fast Would Usain Bolt Run The Mile? - Yours truly bets his house it would be over 5+

coach deez nuts wrote:

rojo wrote:

“He’s a total fast-twitch-muscle-fibre guy. To expect Bolt to be good at the mile simply because he is the world’s greatest sprinter would be like expecting a great three-hundred-and-twenty-pound N.F.L. offensive lineman to be good at playing running back simply because he’s a great football player. It’s ludicrous.”

I would expect a great 320 lb NFL offensive line to be mediocre/good as a HS running back.

rojo wrote:

It looks like it's a much talked about question. Lots of people on letsrun.com were making ridiculous predictions of how fast he could run that started with a 4. Those people are all distance runners who have no idea what they are talking about.

I think I'm a good source to talk about it.

I'm very confident he couldn't break 5:00 for the mile. If that was the over under, I'd mortgage my non-existent house to try to bet up to six-figures he was over that.

I say that for the following reasons. He's a total fast twitch muscle fiber guy.

Ashton Eaton is an incredible athlete. He's going to be much better at the mile than Bolt. What does Eaton run for 1500? Well with the WR on the line he ran 4:14.48 which equates to about 4:35 for the mile. So there's no chance Bolt's that fast. So we know it has to be significantly slower than that.

I then started to think about it by thinking, "What do I think Bolt could run for 800?"

400 Olympic gold medallist Jeremy Wariner ran an 800 last year. He only managed a 1:53 for the distance. John Kellogg went to Baylor (as did Wariner and Michael Johnson) and he said he knew some people who knew Michael Johnson - the 200/400 Olympic gold medallist who is more of a sprinter than Wariner. They told John they didn't think Johnson could break 2:00. But even if Johnson could manage a 1:56-7 then Bolt's going to be slower than that. He'd going to be hard pressed to break 2:00.

But let's say Bolt is a 2:00 800 guy. There are a lot of mediocre high school males that run 2;00 for 800. But these are 800 runners. Those of them that speed oriented and aren't good at long distance (But still way better than Bolt would be) often run about 4:40 for the mile. Or we can look at world class women. Alysia Montano has run 1:57 for 800 but is known as sprinter. Her road mile pb is 4:34.

So if 4:40 isn't easy for a 2:00 speed oriented mid-d runner to run, it's going to be impossible for Bolt.

And 2:00 is generous for Bolt. In 1986, Carl Lewis ran an 800 and he only did it in 2:16.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTlrdczjjOA

So if the over under is 5:00, I'm going over it emphatically.

John Kellogg and I discussed it along these lines and John's guess was 5:30. When I pressed him, he said, "Well if he trained for it and had a million dollars on the line where he won a million if he did it or had to pay out a million if he didn't, I think 5:10 might be the line. Maybe then he could run 5:08."

rojo wrote:

The New Yorker asks that question and the author Charles Bethea extensively cites the LetsRun.com messageboard on this very topic.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/how-fast-would-usain-bolt-run-the-mile?intcid=mod-latest

Sadly, I must confess that in my reply to him I ripped the collective wisdom of this board.

Charles Bethea wrote:

The prevailing wisdom on the (LetsRun.com) thread was summed up best by a visitor using the handle “idiots,” who commented last July, “Are you guys insane??? One of the world’s best junior 400m runners and possibly the greatest 100m/200m runner ever and you think his mile is the same as any random high school kid running track? You really think because he sprints he has no aerobic fitness at all?”

The co-founder of LetsRun.com, Robert Johnson, who is a former college cross-country coach, has a different view. “The question is a good one,” he said recently. “But those people on the site are all distance runners who have no idea what they are talking about.” Johnson is “very confident” that Bolt would not be able to break five minutes. “If that was the over/under, I’d mortgage my nonexistent house to try to bet up to six figures he was over that,” Johnson said. “He’s a total fast-twitch-muscle-fibre guy. To expect Bolt to be good at the mile simply because he is the world’s greatest sprinter would be like expecting a great three-hundred-and-twenty-pound N.F.L. offensive lineman to be good at playing running back simply because he’s a great football player. It’s ludicrous.”

Wejo thinks he could break 5:00. I think he might ultimately be able to do it but no chance at all if he was forced to say run a mile at the Olympics.

The original thread on Bolts' mile ability is here:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4159515

rojo wrote:

The New Yorker asks that question and the author Charles Bethea extensively cites the LetsRun.com messageboard on this very topic.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/sporting-scene/how-fast-would-usain-bolt-run-the-mile?intcid=mod-latest

Sadly, I must confess that in my reply to him I ripped the collective wisdom of this board.

Charles Bethea wrote:

The prevailing wisdom on the (LetsRun.com) thread was summed up best by a visitor using the handle “idiots,” who commented last July, “Are you guys insane??? One of the world’s best junior 400m runners and possibly the greatest 100m/200m runner ever and you think his mile is the same as any random high school kid running track? You really think because he sprints he has no aerobic fitness at all?”

The co-founder of LetsRun.com, Robert Johnson, who is a former college cross-country coach, has a different view. “The question is a good one,” he said recently. “But those people on the site are all distance runners who have no idea what they are talking about.” Johnson is “very confident” that Bolt would not be able to break five minutes. “If that was the over/under, I’d mortgage my nonexistent house to try to bet up to six figures he was over that,” Johnson said. “He’s a total fast-twitch-muscle-fibre guy. To expect Bolt to be good at the mile simply because he is the world’s greatest sprinter would be like expecting a great three-hundred-and-twenty-pound N.F.L. offensive lineman to be good at playing running back simply because he’s a great football player. It’s ludicrous.”

Wejo thinks he could break 5:00. I think he might ultimately be able to do it but no chance at all if he was forced to say run a mile at the Olympics.

The original thread on Bolts' mile ability is here:

http://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=4159515

rojo wrote:

coach deez nuts wrote:

I would expect a great 320 lb NFL offensive line to be mediocre/good as a HS running back.

I agree with that logic to some degree.

He might be able to break 5:00 but this talk about 4 teens is just crazy. Lots of people were saying stuff like that in the original thread. For me, it's not like Miss Rossi unfathomable to me that he runs a 4:50. Two coaches I respect both said 4:45-4:50. I just think there is a huge bias for college distance coaches to not realize they only work with the best of the best. They only work wtih kids who are are a) good at distance running and b) respond to training. I think I'd get good odds on 5:00 and I think it's less than 50%.

Here are the relevant parts of my email to the author where I explained myself a bit more.

rojo wrote:

It looks like it's a much talked about question. Lots of people on letsrun.com were making ridiculous predictions of how fast he could run that started with a 4. Those people are all distance runners who have no idea what they are talking about.

I think I'm a good source to talk about it.

I'm very confident he couldn't break 5:00 for the mile. If that was the over under, I'd mortgage my non-existent house to try to bet up to six-figures he was over that.

I say that for the following reasons. He's a total fast twitch muscle fiber guy.

Ashton Eaton is an incredible athlete. He's going to be much better at the mile than Bolt. What does Eaton run for 1500? Well with the WR on the line he ran 4:14.48 which equates to about 4:35 for the mile. So there's no chance Bolt's that fast. So we know it has to be significantly slower than that.

I then started to think about it by thinking, "What do I think Bolt could run for 800?"

400 Olympic gold medallist Jeremy Wariner ran an 800 last year. He only managed a 1:53 for the distance. John Kellogg went to Baylor (as did Wariner and Michael Johnson) and he said he knew some people who knew Michael Johnson - the 200/400 Olympic gold medallist who is more of a sprinter than Wariner. They told John they didn't think Johnson could break 2:00. But even if Johnson could manage a 1:56-7 then Bolt's going to be slower than that. He'd going to be hard pressed to break 2:00.

But let's say Bolt is a 2:00 800 guy. There are a lot of mediocre high school males that run 2;00 for 800. But these are 800 runners. Those of them that speed oriented and aren't good at long distance (But still way better than Bolt would be) often run about 4:40 for the mile. Or we can look at world class women. Alysia Montano has run 1:57 for 800 but is known as sprinter. Her road mile pb is 4:34.

So if 4:40 isn't easy for a 2:00 speed oriented mid-d runner to run, it's going to be impossible for Bolt.

And 2:00 is generous for Bolt. In 1986, Carl Lewis ran an 800 and he only did it in 2:16.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTlrdczjjOA

So if the over under is 5:00, I'm going over it emphatically.

John Kellogg and I discussed it along these lines and John's guess was 5:30. When I pressed him, he said, "Well if he trained for it and had a million dollars on the line where he won a million if he did it or had to pay out a million if he didn't, I think 5:10 might be the line. Maybe then he could run 5:08."

I also told him about how one of my college coaching buddies had a sub-55 400 sprinter run a mile at the Olympic Trials. She ran a 6:17 mile. If her 400 pb is 10 seconds slower than Bolt than 10 x 4 = 40 so you are looking at 5:37.